Dispatch from Poland | October '24
***Our weekly Dispatches provide an overview of the most relevant recent and upcoming developments for the shift to climate neutrality in selected European countries, from policy and diplomacy to society and industry. For a bird's-eye view of the country's climate-friendly transition, read the respective 'Guide to'.***
Stories to watch in the weeks ahead
Stories to watch in the weeks ahead
- Nuclear strategy update – A renewed strategy for Poland’s nuclear power ambitions is due soon, with an update of the Polish Nuclear Energy Programme from 2020 expected by the end of the year. The strategy currently says that Poland aims to have between 6 and 9 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power by 2043, with a first reactor starting operations in 2033. One site for a new reactor has been chosen in the Pomerania region in the North of the country, and a second one is to be built somewhere in Central Poland. Government sources told Clean Energy Wire that the updated nuclear programme will still include a project with technology from U.S. companies Westinghouse and Bechtel, which were chosen for the plant in Pomerania, and possibly also novel small modular reactors (SMR). It remains unclear whether the government will present a menu of options or whether it has already settled on a strategy. Still to be decided are the exact location of the plant and who will build it. One obvious choice could be Bełchatów, a city with almost 5 GW of lignite power capacity and therefore an excellent electricity network.
- Household energy prices – The Polish government is mulling over an extension of household subsidies for electricity, heat and natural gas. The decision depends on the 2025 budget, the climate and environment ministry said, adding that one option on the table is an extension until the end of next year. However, this approach would cost 4.4 bn zł (around 1.1 bn euros), and the government is looking to save money after an excessive deficit procedure was started by the European Commission in July. A decision is expected before the end of the year.
- Ukrainian energy refugees? – Think tanks Forum Energii and Pulaski Foundation (more below) have voiced serious concerns about the damage caused by Russia’s targeted bombing campaign against the Ukrainian energy sector. The government in Kyiv said that the country has already lost around 13 GW of baseload generation capacity. They warned that further attacks could destabilise Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which remain crucial to ensuring the country maintains a steady supply of electricity. The think tanks in Poland have warned that many Ukrainians could be forced to become ‘energy refugees’ if they don’t have access to electricity and heat during the coming winter. This scenario could have a large impact on the Polish economy, which is why the governments in Warsaw and Kyiv are talking about an increase in energy exports from the European Union to Ukraine. If European grid regulator ENTSO-E agrees, the limit for electricity export capacity could increase from 1.7 to 2 GW. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has suggested a scheme to export electricity from currently unused coal power plants in Poland, without paying EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) allowances, to provide more baseload capacity to Ukraine.
The latest from Poland – last month in recap
The latest from Poland – last month in recap
- National Energy and Climate Plan – Poland’s climate and environment ministry has published a new version of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) which it describes as ‘ambitious’. The updated version assumes a 32.6 percent share of renewables in final gross energy consumption by 2030, translating into 56.1 percent of total electricity production from renewables. It also includes additional energy and climate policy measures that would increase the pace of the country’s energy transition, such as steps to increase energy efficiency and new financing schemes. However, this more ambitious approach could mean reneging on a previous agreement made with mining unions to phase out coal by 2049, instead bringing the date forward. To improve air quality, the updated NECP proposes an end to using coal for heating households by 2040. Public consultations on the NECP are to last until 15 November.
- Pole set to become EU budget commissioner – The designated candidate for EU budget commissioner is Piotr Serafin, an experienced Polish diplomat with close connections to prime minister Donald Tusk. Serafin has previously been minister for EU affairs and has also worked in the EU Commission’s representation in Poland. One of his duties will be to organise the financing of energy and climate policies. Poland is eagerly awaiting EU assistance for energy transition projects.
- Preserving baseload power – Poland wants to preserve conventional baseload electricity generation capacity (coal and gas power pants) during its energy transition, but it remains unclear how this will be organised. Until recently, the idea was to transfer coal assets from state owned energy utilities Polska Grupa Energetyczna, Tauron, Enea and Energa to a new agency called National Energy Security Agency (NABE), which would receive government subsidies to keep the needed generation capacities in place until cleaner alternatives are ready. According to Polish regulator Urząd Regulacji Energetyki, Poland will lack up to 5 GW of secure and controllable power capacity. However, the plans for NABE were rejected by the new government in 2023. In September, the government instead announced plans for the extension of capacity markets to provide the needed capacity. The remaining question is which power plants should stay open, one that must be answered by the state electricity network operator Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne. Coal and natural gas lobby groups have already clashed over which plants should receive support, be built or be modernised.
Wojciech’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads
Wojciech’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads
- The topic of potential energy refugees from Ukraine is getting big in Poland. I recommend two analyses, the first from Forum Energii "Ukraine in Darkness: Preventing the Worst-Case Scenario for Its Energy System" and the second by the Pulaski Foundation from Poland "The impact of the destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure on emigration to Poland in winter months". It is really important to increase energy integration with Ukraine to prevent the country from going dark this winter.
- For a just transition, we might have to talk to the fishing industry. This Instrat analysis provides good insight into the consequences of offshore wind farms on fisheries and suggests strategies for approaching people employed in this sector.
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