Rail to grow in Germany but cars, trucks set to remain dominant - govt 2040 forecast

Rail passenger and freight transport is set to see strong growth over the next 16 years in Germany, but trucks and cars are expected to remain the dominant way to move goods and people, according to the government's 2040 transport forecast. Transport minister Volker Wissing, a member of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), said in a statement that his government must "invest in all modes of transport," including renovating ageing roads, bridges and tunnels, as well as expanding rail networks. "At the same time, maintaining and building new roads is also essential, because the car remains the backbone of mobility in Germany," he said. The forecast presents long-term scenarios depicting traffic developments up to 2040.

Environmental organisations Greenpeace and VCD criticised Wissing's calls for investments in new roads, saying that expanding Germany's already extensive road network would merely result in more car traffic. "Whoever builds roads will harvest cars," said VCD, a climate-friendly mobility NGO. Germany has one of the densest motorway systems in the world at around 13,000 kilometres, said VCD. A recent YouGov survey found more than two-thirds of Germans believe that is enough, with five percent wanting investments in new motorways, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported.

"You have to ask yourself to what extent it makes sense to create a forecast that is not geared towards meeting the climate targets," Thorsten Koska, transport researcher at the Wuppertal Institute, told dpa. He criticised that the forecast was based on existing investment plans for infrastructure, which provide more funding for roads than railways, which in turn translates to continued high proportion of road transport in the model, he said. Additionally, the forecast assumed the commuter allowance will remain in its current form, but Koska said this could be an instrument to reduce road traffic even further.

Despite the projected growth in rail, Germany is also set to miss two key mobility targets – doubling passenger rail traffic by the end of the decade and increasing rail freight to a 25 percent share of total transport volume, wrote dpa. An alliance of climate NGOs, welfare organisations and business associations previously warned that cuts to the country's railway budget puts mobility transition and climate targets at risk. The report also predicted a 77 percent drop in transport CO2 emissions by 2040, falling short of the 88 percent goal anchored in the Federal Climate Action Law. Germany's transport sector has consistently failed to meet targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.