Flat-rate train ticket reduced Germany’s transport emissions by 5% in first year – analysis

Germany’s flat-rate ticket for local and regional public transport, the Deutschlandticket, helped push people to switch from using cars to taking the train, which reduced car emissions by 6.7 million tonnes of CO2 between its introduction in May 2023 and April 2024, showed an analysis by the Ariadne energy transition research alliance. This represents almost five percent of current annual transport sector emissions in the country (146 million tonnes of CO2). The share of train journeys in the total number of journeys over 30 kilometres has risen from around 10 percent to 12 percent, said the researchers.

The analysis projected that a planned price increase from 1 January 2025 from the current 49 euros to 58 euros per month could halve the emissions reduction from passenger cars.

Until now, model-based projections by the government have assumed only about half of the annual emissions reduction, said Nicolas Koch, researcher at the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), adding that Ariadne’s results came from the first empiric data analysis on the topic. Based on a comparison with a control group and on mobile phone tracking data, the researchers analysed the effects of the ticket on people’s mobility.

The Deutschlandticket – introduced to help relieve people struggling with high energy prices and to increase public transport use to help reach climate targets – has been hailed as a potential breakthrough in transport policy that could trigger a long-term change in mobility patterns. However, its effects on greenhouse gas emissions have been disputed. After the first few months, subscribers said that they used their car less.