Industry association calls for revision of German long-term renewable energy forecast

The German Renewable Energy Federation (BEE) has called for a revision of long-term renewable power scenarios detailed in an analysis by the economy ministry (BMWK). The BEE presented its own analysis of the ministry’s findings, highlighting “significant problems regarding the renewable electricity generation identified in the scenarios.” The BEE said, for example, that the government is "grossly underestimating" the technical possibilities of onshore wind energy, where yields could be significantly higher than currently assumed. Similarly, underlying assumptions also led to a distorted picture in the photovoltaic (PV) sector, the BEE added.

“The actual available power or the contribution from renewable energy sources to electricity generation is […] significantly underestimated in the scenarios,” BEE president Simone Peter said. “That needs to be corrected.” Peter added: “Deviations in the existing long-term scenarios carry the risk that policy calculations could be based on incorrect assumptions. The assumptions and results of the long-term scenarios in their current form should therefore not serve as the basis for further studies or political decisions. It must be ensured that such an important basic study does not produce any subsequent errors.”

The economy ministry’s long-term scenarios model the future development of the country’s energy system, informing energy and climate policy goals. Long-term scenario project manager Frank Sensfuß of Fraunhofer ISI told Tagesspiegel Background that he disagreed with the findings, but said the team would be happy to look at suggestions for the next update.