Vote25: Geopolitical instability could undermine climate commitments in 2025, warns German env agency
***Please note, this interview is part of CLEW's 2025 preview series, covering the German national election and relevant climate and energy topics in Europe. Read all interviews here.***
What are the most notable achievements by the outgoing German government? Why are they relevant or important?
Susanne Dröge: German climate policy has been on track thanks to the legally binding targets for 2030. In particular, the energy and industry sectors both delivered emission reductions beyond their designated targets. Not least, this was due to the successful expansion of renewables. Renewable energy production is now regarded as being in the public interest and therefore planning and approval procedures have been accelerated. Moreover, smaller constituencies in Germany can benefit financially from photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind installations under the EEG 2023, which makes renewable investments more attractive.
A legal basis was established for wind power installations on at least two percent of areas in the federal states. In addition, the new heating law encourages German households and businesses to rely on climate neutral heating systems like heat pumps and district heating instead of oil and gas.
Germany’s next government will probably not be able to take office until spring 2025 at the earliest – what energy and climate policy challenges will then have to be tackled with particular urgency? What about the implementation of specific 2030 climate and energy goals?
Dröge: The new German government will have to tackle a number of urgent climate and energy issues. This includes removing bottlenecks in infrastructure, including power and H2 grid investments, energy cost containment for industry, reforming the energy market and incentivising investments in power storage.
The decarbonisation of heating and cooling in the buildings sector and of road transport remains the biggest challenge. Rising CO2 prices for poorer households will have to be compensated for via the tax scheme or through direct transfers (the climate bonus, Klimageld).
Beyond the federal elections: what topics or events do you expect will be important for the national and international climate and energy debate in the coming year?
Dröge: The year 2025 will be a difficult one for enforcing climate policies. Europe will have to contend with a German government in transition, a French government in crisis and rising populism.
Also, the new U.S. administration will most likely put European policies on climate and energy under competitive pressure, and could turn away from international climate policy commitments. At the same time, under the Paris Agreement, parties have to submit in 2025 their new climate plans (NDCs, Nationally Determined Contributions), which spell out their targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
The need for more climate action has never been more urgent: according to the IPCC, a global 43 percent reduction by 2030 and a 60 percent reduction by 2035, both compared to 2019, would be needed to keep warming to 1.5°C. The NDCs to be announced next year will show if there is still enough political commitment in the challenging geopolitical environment.
Inaction puts at stake the many benefits of a clean energy transition and increases the risk of higher costs from disasters linked to climate change. Brazil, as the host of COP30, the EU and other big economies will have to find ways to stimulate a continued commitment to the climate and energy agenda.
Wildfires in Greece, drought in Italy and floods in Spain: these are the pictures that come to mind when thinking about the effects of climate change in Europe. What is Germany's role, where does it stand and how do the country's climate adaptation efforts compare internationally?
Kirsten Sander: The year 2024 marked a significant milestone for climate adaptation policy in Germany: the first Climate Adaptation Act came into force and the government adopted a new Climate Adaptation Strategy with measurable targets.
With the establishment of sectoral, indicator-based, measurable targets on adaptation, Germany is at the forefront of the international debate on progress measurement in adaptation.
In the forthcoming legislative period, the most pressing issue is to agree on a joint financing instrument for adaptation activities between the federal government and the federal states, to accelerate implementation. This instrument should facilitate a range of adaptation measures, including blue-green [nature-based] infrastructures for cooling and rainwater retention, as well as preventive measures to protect particularly vulnerable groups from climate change-related risks, such as heat waves.
