Q&A: EU to propose 2040 emissions reduction target
What is the EU’s 2040 climate target?
The European Union’s 2040 emissions reduction target would be a legally binding amendment to the European Climate Law, which was agreed in 2021. It sets out the EU’s 55 percent net emissions reduction target for 2030 and its 2050 net-zero emissions goal.
The legal amendment is expected to go through the so-called co-decision process, where the European Parliament and EU member state governments negotiate the text and then come together to decide the final wording in meetings called trilogues. Due to its political significance, EU leaders may also weigh in via a European Council meeting, as happened with the 2030 target. Any decision made there would require unanimity among EU countries and could speed up the negotiations or cause tension if countries disagree on ambition.
What is the 2040 target expected to be?
In February 2024, the European Commission suggested that the target should be a net emissions reduction of 90 percent by 2040, based on 1990 levels. This was based on a recommendation from the EU’s independent scientific advisory board to have a target of 90-95 percent.
The European Commission is widely expected to stick to this goal as the 90 percent target is included in the European Union’s agenda-setting Competitiveness Compass and the Clean Industrial Deal. According to the Commission, the goal would put the EU on course for climate neutrality by 2050, ensure predictability, boost competitiveness and enable the EU to lead in developing clean technology.
The “net” element of the target refers to the total amount of emissions that end up in the atmosphere - or gross emissions minus human and natural activities to remove them. These removals could be nature-based, where trees, soils and other natural processes take carbon from the atmosphere, or technical, permanent removals, where carbon is removed by technology and permanently stored - for instance, direct air carbon capture and storage (DAC).
According to the European Commission’s impact assessment, the EU will achieve a gross emissions reduction of 75-85 percent by 2040, showing that removals are needed alongside emissions cuts.
The European Commission could boost the 2040 target’s credibility and measurability by breaking it into three sub-targets: gross emissions, nature-based removals and technical removals. This approach has been called for by think tanks as well as by a group of over 100 academics, businesses, civil society organisations and research institutions. It is also supported by France. It would build on work done for the 2030 target, where the European Parliament secured a guarantee that limited the amount of nature-based removals that could contribute.
The scientific advisory board has already recommended separating targets for permanent and nature-based removals and said that targets for these would help reach their potential. It has also highlighted the role of international climate action, saying that to achieve a fair contribution the EU should “aim for the highest ambition in domestic emission reductions and sustainable carbon removals” while also contributing to “direct emission reductions outside the EU.”
When is the 2040 target expected to be published?
The European Commission has not given a specific date for the 2040 target’s publication. In its work programme, the Commission states that the European Climate Law will be amended by the end of Q1 this year.
Environment ministers, who traditionally negotiate the target, will meet on 27 March. The Commission may want to propose the target before this.
However, there is also speculation that one of the reasons the 2040 target has not yet been published is because of Polish politics ahead of national elections in May. The country currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, meaning it would lead negotiations on the target and may not want to be seen as responsible for an ambitious goal. Poland was one of the countries that originally resisted the 2030 target.
Why is the 2040 target important?
The 2040 target will help dictate how steep the emissions reduction curve is between 2030 and 2050. The quicker the reduction, the less carbon is emitted, helping to prevent drastic global warming. It will also provide a steer for the European Union’s work on boosting its competitiveness and driving forward the energy transition.
More work will need to be done across the European economy to reach the target. This includes implementing existing green legislation and living up to the goals of the recent Clean Industrial Deal.
Further legal reforms may also be required to bring existing legislation in line with the 2040 target, as was done with the 2030 target. Teresa Ribera, the Commission’s executive vice president for a clean, just and competitive transition, has been tasked with this.
Her commissioning letter stated that: “Once the 90 percent emission reduction target for 2040 is enshrined in the European Climate Law, we will need to work closely with all stakeholders to prepare a new architecture beyond 2030 to enable us to reach net-zero by mid-century.”
The Commission will assess this in 2026, according to climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra.
How is the 2040 target linked to the EU's NDC?
The European Union also needs to submit its 2035 target as part of its updated climate ambition plan under the Paris Agreement - known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This goal is likely to be influenced by the EU’s 2040 target.
Like many countries, the EU missed the original February 2025 deadline and the United Nations has now given it until September 2025 to hand this in ahead of the UN climate change conference COP30 in Brazil.
Agreeing on the NDC is a separate process, where EU countries will likely be asked to give the green light before the plan is submitted by the Council Presidency and the European Commission.
Both the 2035 and 2040 targets are important to set a high bar for international climate ambition. This is particularly important following the United States pulling out of the Paris Agreement and as other countries are criticised for not handing in ambitious enough NDCs.
What does the 2040 climate target mean for Europe's industry?
A significant amount of work is needed to reach all of the EU’s green goals, including the 2040 target. When these were proposed, renewables and electricity industry groups welcomed them but pointed to the need for clean power and electrification to help reach them. The buildings sector has also highlighted the role of renovation and energy efficiency.
Energy-intensive industries likewise believe that there is a significant amount of work to do. The steel industry warned that “there is not yet a clear business case for the transition, and investments remain worryingly low.” The chemicals sector welcomed the target when it was proposed in 2024 but warned the announcement “falls short of providing concrete and timely solutions” to the challenges. The Clean Industrial Deal aims to provide an industrial strategy to alleviate these concerns.
Over 100 businesses and investors also signed a joint letter organised by the Corporate Leaders Group, a green business body, calling for a robust 2040 target of at least 90 percent. Environmental organisations also want the EU to go further, arguing that the bloc should become climate neutral by 2040 to do its fair share for international climate action.
