Vote25: 2030 climate and energy targets hinge on next German government

CLEW has put together an overview of key parties' energy and climate policy positions from their draft and final election programmes. Find the PDF here.

Germany's outgoing government made important moves to protect the country against the worsening effects of climate change. Notably, it introduced the first legally-binding climate adaptation law and presented a strategy to protect people and infrastructure against increasingly severe weather events. However, Germany's next government after the snap election still has to overcome key challenges like funding and knowledge gaps to implement measures at a local level. Read the analysis here.

Making German homes less climate-damaging and keeping them affordable for residents at the same time will be a central task for the country's next government. The heated controversy over a phaseout law for oil and gas boilers is still fresh on people's minds, and populist parties have successfully capitalised on anxious voters' concerns that they won't be able to afford the transition to a cleaner future. However, cutting heating emissions has become urgent - Germany is already set to miss the corresponding 2030 climate targets as it continues to rely on fossil fuel boilers, while energy-saving renovations proceed at a glacial pace. Read the analysis here.

The early end of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government follows a three-year term marked by crises and a deep internal dispute over funding for future climate and energy policies. Despite its noisy demise, the chancellor’s three-party alliance has made significant progress in key policy areas, such as renewables expansion. But the many funding questions and policy loose ends left behind by the coalition’s collapse will not make the job easier for a new government after the election in February 2025. It faces economic woes, security challenges and mounting costs that could challenge the acceptance of climate policies. Read the article here.

Germany's coalition government under Olaf Scholz has come to an early end – on the day Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. The chancellor sacked his finance minister after long internal disputes over the right way forward on economic recovery and the energy transition. The break-up now leaves the country with a host of unfinished policy proposals that risk grinding to a halt until a snap election is held and a new government is sworn in next year. This includes urgent matters such as Germany's 2025 budget, without which many climate, energy, and industry support programmes could be left hanging in the balance for months, unless a minority government manages to forge new majorities in parliament. Read the factsheet here.

Germany looks to be heading for snap elections in early 2025 after chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government broke up on 6 November 2024, following months of dispute among the parties. Under normal circumstances, Germans elect a new parliament every four years, and the requirements to initiate an early election are high. Neither the chancellor nor the parliament itself has the power to do this unilaterally, and the process consists of several steps. Eventually, a government is formed after the new federal parliament decides on a chancellor, but the laborious process to negotiate a coalition can last for months after an election.

This factsheet provides a brief overview of the path to the next German government.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – the second strongest polling party ahead of Germany's snap elections on 23 February – is the only major party to outright reject the scientific consensus behind human-induced climate change. The AfD will likely remain in opposition for the coming term, yet the party's growing strength has influenced the electoral campaign through agenda-setting, says political scientist Manès Weisskircher. While some of their anti-climate protection messages have found support in the wider population, their fundamental criticism of climate action relies on exaggerated claims and leaves nuance out of complicated policy decisions, the researcher who focuses on far-right politics and climate protection at TU Dresden told Clean Energy Wire. Still, a growing support base means other mainstream parties might turn quieter on their climate ambition, Weisskircher warned. Read the interview here.

Slowing down industry decarbonisation in Germany would result in a dangerous loss of competitiveness in emerging green markets, says Philipp Verpoort, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Instead, the next German government needs to provide companies with clarity over the country's long-term policy for climate-friendly investments and focus on European cooperation to make the process more affordable, Verpoort told Clean Energy Wire. The physicist is also the lead author of a recent report by the country’s government-funded Ariadne energy transition research alliance, which warned Germany against relying on future long-distance green hydrogen imports in its drive to reduce emissions in the steel and chemicals industries. Read the interview here.

The next German government must achieve what the previous few have not: increasing digitalisation, says Robert Busch, managing director of the Association of Energy Market Innovators (bne). Electricity system flexibility can only be achieved through fully digitalised processes, so Germany must get the smart meter rollout off the ground by radically simplifying the requirements, Bush argued. Future security of electricity supply should stem from power plants themselves, instead of the government paying them to stand at the ready, the lobby group leader told Clean Energy Wire in this interview.

The collapsed coalition of chancellor Olaf Scholz achieved a few important breakthroughs for Germany’s energy transition that should not be sacrificed for point-scoring in election campaigns, says Wolfram Axthelm from the Renewable Energy Federation (BEE). The renewable power industry lobby group’s managing director argues that worries over electricity supply security in Germany are unfounded even if the coalition’s break-up prevented the adoption of key regulation and warns that developments at the EU level and in the U.S. must not be overlooked in the run-up to Germany’s snap elections. Read the interview here.

Ensuring the timely construction of new hydrogen-ready gas power plants must be a top priority in energy policy for Germany's next government, says the head of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW). Lobby group leader Kerstin Andreae warns that general power supply security as well as the country's coal power phase-out ambitions hinge on an immediate adoption of the related Power Plant Security Act, in order to give investors legal clarity before the beginning of the new year. The former member of parliament for the Green Party argues that party politics must not put the country's grid stability at risk, and urges policymakers from all parties to respond to technical necessities in the energy system by finding compromise on key issues before the 2025 elections. Read the interview here.

Next year will be a difficult one for climate policy, says Susanne Dröge, head of climate protection and energy at the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). Governments will have to show whether they are still committed to strong climate action amidst a challenging geopolitical environment, Dröge told Clean Energy Wire. Yet inaction risks jeopardising progress and inducing higher costs. In Germany, reducing emissions in buildings and transport remains the toughest nut to crack. Meanwhile, the country is now at the forefront of the climate adaptation debate, Kirsten Sander, scientific policy advisor at UBA, added in this interview.