Vote25: 2030 climate and energy targets hinge on next German government

As Germans prepare to head to the polls for the 23 February snap election, the weakness of the country’s large industrial base has become a campaign focus. Some opposition policymakers blame exaggerated climate policies for the troubles at sector giants like VW and many energy-intensive companies. But most experts and businesses agree that the new government must push forward industry decarbonisation despite tight budgets in close cooperation with the EU. A delay would only put long-term competitiveness in future markets at risk, they warn. Read the full analysis.

Germany’s next government will inherit a major policy predicament: How can it finally initiate serious transport emission cuts against a backdrop of tight finances, a struggling car industry, and a crumbling transport infrastructure? After years of foot-dragging under previous governments, the mobility sector is lagging far behind in the country’s landmark energy transition, meaning major policy shifts are required as 2030 climate targets move into view. Read the analysis here.

The early end of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government follows a three-year term marked by crises and a deep internal dispute over funding for future climate and energy policies. Despite its noisy demise, the chancellor’s three-party alliance has made significant progress in key policy areas, such as renewables expansion. But the many funding questions and policy loose ends left behind by the coalition’s collapse will not make the job easier for a new government after the election in February 2025. It faces economic woes, security challenges and mounting costs that could challenge the acceptance of climate policies. Read the article here.

Germany's coalition government under Olaf Scholz has come to an early end – on the day Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. The chancellor sacked his finance minister after long internal disputes over the right way forward on economic recovery and the energy transition. The break-up now leaves the country with a host of unfinished policy proposals that risk grinding to a halt until a snap election is held and a new government is sworn in next year. This includes urgent matters such as Germany's 2025 budget, without which many climate, energy, and industry support programmes could be left hanging in the balance for months, unless a minority government manages to forge new majorities in parliament. Read the factsheet here.

Germany looks to be heading for snap elections in early 2025 after chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government broke up on 6 November 2024, following months of dispute among the parties. Under normal circumstances, Germans elect a new parliament every four years, and the requirements to initiate an early election are high. Neither the chancellor nor the parliament itself has the power to do this unilaterally, and the process consists of several steps. Eventually, a government is formed after the new federal parliament decides on a chancellor, but the laborious process to negotiate a coalition can last for months after an election.

This factsheet provides a brief overview of the path to the next German government.

Slowing down industry decarbonisation in Germany would result in a dangerous loss of competitiveness in emerging green markets, says Philipp Verpoort, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Instead, the next German government needs to provide companies with clarity over the country's long-term policy for climate-friendly investments and focus on European cooperation to make the process more affordable, Verpoort told Clean Energy Wire. The physicist is also the lead author of a recent report by the country’s government-funded Ariadne energy transition research alliance, which warned Germany against relying on future long-distance green hydrogen imports in its drive to reduce emissions in the steel and chemicals industries. Read the interview here.

The next German government must achieve what the previous few have not: increasing digitalisation, says Robert Busch, managing director of the Association of Energy Market Innovators (bne). Electricity system flexibility can only be achieved through fully digitalised processes, so Germany must get the smart meter rollout off the ground by radically simplifying the requirements, Bush argued. Future security of electricity supply should stem from power plants themselves, instead of the government paying them to stand at the ready, the lobby group leader told Clean Energy Wire in this interview.

The collapsed coalition of chancellor Olaf Scholz achieved a few important breakthroughs for Germany’s energy transition that should not be sacrificed for point-scoring in election campaigns, says Wolfram Axthelm from the Renewable Energy Federation (BEE). The renewable power industry lobby group’s managing director argues that worries over electricity supply security in Germany are unfounded even if the coalition’s break-up prevented the adoption of key regulation and warns that developments at the EU level and in the U.S. must not be overlooked in the run-up to Germany’s snap elections. Read the interview here.

Ensuring the timely construction of new hydrogen-ready gas power plants must be a top priority in energy policy for Germany's next government, says the head of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW). Lobby group leader Kerstin Andreae warns that general power supply security as well as the country's coal power phase-out ambitions hinge on an immediate adoption of the related Power Plant Security Act, in order to give investors legal clarity before the beginning of the new year. The former member of parliament for the Green Party argues that party politics must not put the country's grid stability at risk, and urges policymakers from all parties to respond to technical necessities in the energy system by finding compromise on key issues before the 2025 elections. Read the interview here.

Next year will be a difficult one for climate policy, says Susanne Dröge, head of climate protection and energy at the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). Governments will have to show whether they are still committed to strong climate action amidst a challenging geopolitical environment, Dröge told Clean Energy Wire. Yet inaction risks jeopardising progress and inducing higher costs. In Germany, reducing emissions in buildings and transport remains the toughest nut to crack. Meanwhile, the country is now at the forefront of the climate adaptation debate, Kirsten Sander, scientific policy advisor at UBA, added in this interview.