Germany must consider uncertain economic and population growth in energy plans - researchers

Germany should give greater consideration to the uncertain development of economic output and population trends when planning the country’s future energy and infrastructure requirements, said a group of researchers from the Helmholtz Energy Alliance. Final energy demand, electricity demand, installed capacity for electricity generation and hydrogen demand could vary between 10 and 25 percent by 2045, depending on the trends in population and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, they said.

Irrespective of these developments, the electrification of production and transport processes should be at the centre of the transition strategies, said researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and the Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZ Jülich). This would increase electricity demand from the current 600 terawatt hours (TWh) to between 1,100 and 1,300 TWh per year by 2045. The expansion of electricity generation from renewable sources in Germany must therefore be accelerated in any case, said the researchers.

Germany aims to become climate neutral by 2045. The country’s trademark Energiewende, denoting its transition to climate neutral and nuclear-free energy supply, continues to have broad public backing. The share of renewables in Germany's electricity mix is growing fast, following a combination of government policies to speed up expansion, favourable weather conditions and a weak economy leading to lower overall power demand.

Coal use has reached the lowest level in more than half a century and government projections for the first time show the country is nearly on track to reaching its national 2030 climate targets. However, budget woes and the rise of populist movements could make achieving progress towards climate neutrality more complicated.