German gas use to decline slower than expected due to lagging heating transition, higher needs in electricity – consultancy
Clean Energy Wire
Fossil gas is set to continue to play a crucial role in Germany’s energy supply throughout this decade, and consumption will fall slower than authorities currently plan, said consultancy McKinsey and Company. It cited a lagging transition away from gas heating to alternatives such as heat pumps, and the need to produce more electricity and district heating from gas as Germany phases out coal as the main reasons.
The consultancy calculated that total consumption could fall from the current 740 terawatt hours (TWh) to just 690 to 720 TWh by 2030 – significantly higher than the forecasted decline from official grid development scenarios, which assume a natural gas requirement of 550 to 650 TWh.
“With regard to electricity supply, it can be assumed that existing gas-fired power plants will be operated at higher capacity utilisation and new ones will be connected to the grid,” said McKinsey in a paper.
As Germany ramps up renewables and exits coal and nuclear power, it plans to build more gas power capacity, which would be put to use at times of high electricity needs and little wind or sunshine. The new units would be constructed in key locations, especially across the south of the country, as Germany still lacks sufficient grid capacity to transport renewable electricity from the windy north to the industrial centres. The outgoing government failed to agree the law reform necessary to introduce tenders for government support to help build the new gas plants – something the next coalition will have to take up.
Grid planning gas consumption projections are based on the long-term scenarios for the transformation of Germany’s energy system, which are calculated by several research institutes and commissioned by the economy and climate ministry. McKinsey called on authorities for a realistic projection of future gas needs. “Ambitious targets without sufficient backing in the form of robust measures will lead to wrong decisions on the energy and heating transition in Germany,” it said.
