Coalition collapse: Tracking the path to Germany's snap elections
19 November
Unrest within SPD around upcoming chancellor candidate
Debate among chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) continues on who should lead the party into the 23 February snap election. Some high-level SPD parliamentary group members have spoken out against Scholz's candidacy, asking instead for current defence minister Boris Pistorius, who has higher approval ratings in polls, to be the upcoming chancellor candidate.
"We are hearing a lot of support for Boris Pistorius," wrote Wiebke Esdar and Dirk Wiese, chairpersons of the NRW regional group of the SPD parliamentary group, in a joint statement. "One thing is clear: ultimately, the party committees will decide on the question of the candidate for chancellor, and that is the right place to do so."
At a press conference held on 19 November following the G20 summit, Scholz himself said that the SPD is "going into this election in order to emerge from it successfully.” He added: "We want to win together, me and the SPD – and that is the message that I would like to emphasise once again here."
17 November
Green Party officially nominates Habeck as candidate for chancellor
Economy minister Robert Habeck has officially been nominated as the Green Party’s top candidate for the upcoming snap elections. At a party convention in southwestern city Wiesbaden, Habeck received over 96 percent of the votes and declared his intention to lead the party into the campaign for the ballot on 23 February. The minister said the chancellery was in reach for his party only if it seized a momentum that “carries us very far”. The Greens currently poll at about 11 percent.
15 November
Media report says FDP had prepared coalition break-up for several weeks
The break-up of Germany’s coalition government had been planned for several weeks by finance minister Christian Lindner and his pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), according to reports in the newspapers Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The party establishment had referred to the intended government collapse as “D-day” since at least September, and called a position paper with controversial policy demands by Lindner that surfaced shortly before the break-up a “torpedo” that would blow up the coalition.
Lindner was ultimately sacked by chancellor Olaf Scholz on 6 November, which was followed by him and two other FDP ministers leaving the government. A third, transport minister Volker Wissing, remained in office and left the FDP instead. Senior members of the FDP’s former coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party, reacted with contempt to the reports, while Lindner said they did not reveal anything newsworthy, and that chancellor Scholz had also been considering Lindner’s sacking for weeks.
Flat-rate Germany public transport ticket secure for 2025 after Conservatives consent to funding
Germany’s largest opposition group in parliament, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, has supported the continuation of the country’s national flat-rate public transport ticket. The offer should continue next year but passengers are likely to be hit with a price rise. The parliamentary group of the Christian Democrat Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), said it would back funding the scheme. However, the opposition party said the decision would only be formally adopted after Scholz’s vote of confidence in parliament, scheduled for 16 December.
14 November
Little change in party preferences as election schedule becomes clear
The preferences of German voters for political parties have only shown moderate changes in a first major poll after the coalition’s collapse and ahead of the snap election in February. The poll by YouGov saw conservative CDU/CSU alliance keeping its comfortable lead (33%) ahead of the far-right AfD (19%), both up by one percent compared to a month earlier. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD (15%) slightly dropped in voter preferences but still came ahead of the Green Party (12%), which gained one percentage point. The nationalist-left BSW dropped one percentage point (7%), while preferences for the pro-business FDP (5%) and the Left Party (3%) remained unchanged.
Quick compromises needed on open energy policy proposals, German state energy ministers say
The collapse of Germany’s coalition government could threaten important energy transition projects across the country if no precautions are taken quickly, said the current head of the energy minister conference of Germany’s 16 states, Reinhard Meyer. “The coalition’s break-up must not lead to projects getting delayed or even failing,” the energy minister of northern state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said.
Uncertainty over climate friendly construction programmes after German government’s break-up
Programmes supporting climate friendly construction in Germany could become severely affected by the break-up of Germany’s coalition government, the building owner protection association BHB has warned. The country will likely enter 2025 on a provisional budget that provides no certainty whether certain schemes are continued, the group said.
13 November
Energy industry urges German lawmakers to put policy stability ahead of party politics
Policymakers in parliament should help the minority government of chancellor Olaf Scholz get key energy policy proposals over the line before the upcoming snap election, the Federation of German Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) has said. The parliament would only have two full weeks to debate and decide remaining proposals the energy industry lobby group said.
Scholz confirms election schedule, calls for investments into security and economy
Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed that he would initiate a vote of confidence to be decided by parliament on 16 December. In a government declaration in the Bundestag, he said that this would allow Germans to head to the polls on 23 February 2025. “The date is set,” said Scholz. The chancellor called the federal budget and state debt a defining issue of the election campaign, stressing that simultaneous investments in security – for example by supporting Ukraine – and in the economy are possible. “We need to strengthen our security now, but we also need to invest in a modern economy and good jobs, in infrastructure and technologies for the good jobs of the future," Scholz said.
Conservative CDU leader says reform of country’s debt brake is “of course” possible
The head of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, has said that reforming German state debt rules and allow the government to borrow more money would “of course” be possible. At a debate in Berlin, the leader of the largest opposition party said reforming the constitutional debt limit would depend on what additional funds are being used for, arguing that a reform to allow more investments would be a viable option, public broadcaster BR reported.
12 November
Nationalist-left BSW leader Wagenknecht worried about early election date
The head of the nationalist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), Sahra Wagenknecht, has said the likely early election date on 23 February would pose challenges to her newly formed party, public broadcaster ARD reported. “We’ll have to work hard now to get donations” and “get through the campaign well.” The leader of the pro-Russia party also said that the short preparation time meant that the BSW’s election programme would have to be developed faster than initially planned, which would cut the available time to draft certain parts of the manifesto.
SPD leaders back Scholz amid internal “grumbling” over renewed candidacy
The head of the Social Democrats’ (SPD) parliamentary group, Rolf Mützenich, has said that some SPD policymakers are “grumbling” over the prospect of a renewed candidacy to become chancellor by incumbent government leader Olaf Scholz. “These kind of voices of course exists, too,” Mützenich told public broadcaster ZDF. However, he said that the SPD knew it would have act with one voice in the upcoming election and that he was “convinced” that Scholz will be the party’s candidate. Other senior SPD members also backed Scholz in the prevoius days, who some say should make way for the more popular defense minister Boris Pistorius as candidate.
Lawmakers agree on 23 February as date for snap election
The parliamentary groups of chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the largest opposition group, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, have agreed on 23 February as the provisional date for Germany’s upcoming snap election. Scholz had earlier said that he would accept such an agreement and initiate a vote of confidence in parliament. The Bundestag will likely vote on it on 16 December, reported public broadcaster ARD. After that, the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, can dissolve parliament and call new elections within a period of 60 days.
Electoral management body says February election can be safely carried out
Holding a snap election in February does not pose any legal or organsiational challenges that could damage the vote’s integrity, said the head of Germany’s electoral management body, Ruth Brand. Implementing an election in the second month of 2025 would be “manageable,” Brand told members of parliament in a hearing. After the collapse of Germany’s coalition government, Brand warned that rushing to a snap election without sufficient time to prepare could lead to irregularities that might compromise voter confidence in the process.
11 November
Economy minister urges cross-party effort in Germany to hold course on climate and energy policy
A cross-party effort in Germany is necessary to avoid that key policy proposals needed to achieve national climate and energy targets fall victim to the government coalition’s break-up, economy minister Robert Habeck has warned. Speaking at an energy conference in Berlin, the minister said entire German regions expect clarity on the construction of new backup power plants and investments in the energy transition, which no party should use as bargaining chips in the upcoming election campaign.
Country’s largest ballot paper printing firm warns against January election
The CEO of Germany’s largest printing firm for ballot papers has warned that a snap election in January would come with a lot of organisational challenges that could pose a challenge to the election process’s integrity. “With a lot of effort, we would probably be able to pull it off,” CEO Bastian Beeck of printing company Köllen Druck und Verlag, which supplies most of the country’s 11,000 municipalities with ballot papers for elections, told news magazine Stern.
German states worried that coalition collapse could increase price of flat-rate local transport ticket
Germany’s states have voiced concerns that the collapse of chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government could increase the price of the country’s ‘Germany ticket’ for a countrywide public transport use flat rate. The funding of the ticket that in 2024 cost just under 50 euros per month has been a contentious issue from the onset. While the coalition’s collapse and the lack of an agreed budget for 2025 did not immediately cut funding, the states Baden-Wurttemberg and Lower Saxony warned that unused funds from this year had to be transferred to avoid price spikes.
10 November
Scholz ready to call for vote of confidence in December
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he is open to calling a vote of confidence already in December and thus about one month earlier than he initially planned to do after the collapse of his coalition government on 6 November. In an interview on public broadcaster ARD, Scholz however warned that this should only happen if it can be guaranteed that the elections can be implemented without any organisational problems.
Election assessment committee to debate on snap election’s timing
A committee of members of parliament and Germany’s electoral management body could debate the best timing for snap elections in a meeting on 12 November. The Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party had asked parliament president Bärbel Bas (SPD) to install the committee to discuss the earliest possible date for the earlier 2025 elections, reported Tagesspiegel.
8 November
Electoral management body warns against fast-tracking snap elections
The head of Germany’s electoral management body Federal Returning Officer, Ruth Brand, has warned of “incalculable” risks over a fast-tracked snap election in January or February 2025. In a letter to chancellor Olaf Scholz, Brand said that the timing preferred by opposition parties could overwhelm administrations, especially at the local level and during the Christmas holidays, and lead to irregularities in the election process that could damage voters’ trust in the process. The process could also run into logistical challenges due to difficulties in procuring the necessary amount of ballot papers and pose challenges to smaller parties in particular to arrange all the required documents to participate in the vote, Brand added.
Economy minister Robert Habeck says he wants to lead Green Party in election
Economy and climate minister Habeck wants to lead the Green Party in the upcoming snap election, the current vice chancellor announces in a video. Party delegates will have to agree on his candidacy at a party conference at the end of next week.
SPD supporters favour defence minister Pistorius as future party leader – survey
A majority (58 percent) of SPD supporters said current defence minister Boris Pistorius should lead the party at the next elections, compared to 30 percent in favour of current chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to a Forsa poll published by the Oldenburger Onlinezeitung.
7 November
Conservative opposition leader Merz calls for enabling snap election immediately
The leader of Germany's largest opposition party, Friedrich Merz from the conservative Christian Democrat Union (CDU), has rejected Olaf Scholz's schedule for enabling snap elections in spring 2025. He instead said the chancellor should initiate a vote of confidence in parliament the week after his government collapsed to allow a snap election to take place as early as January 2025. By leading a minority government of his SPD and the Green Party, Scholz needs the votes of other parties in parliament to get several pending policy proposals across the line that his coalition government had prepared before it broke up.
However, a meeting between Merz and Scholz on the day after the government's break-up ended without a clear result regarding the snap election's roadmap. The CDU said it would assess which policy proposals it would be ready to help Scholz get across the line before the end of the year if he agrees to quickly pave the way for elections.
Most Germans in favour of quick snap election
Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents in a survey by public broadcaster ARD said they favour quick snap elections after the collapse of Scholz's government coalition. One third (33%) approved of the chancellor's plan to hold a vote of confidence in mid-January to enable an election in March. The opposition instead has called for holding a vote of confidence in the week after the government's collapse and a snap election in January.
A clear majority of respondents (59%) said they welcome the coalition government's early end. However, most said they do not think that chancellor Scholz and his SPD party is to blame for the collapse: 40 percent said finance minister Christian Lindner's FDP has undermined the coalition, while 26 percent blamed the Green Party and 19 percent the SPD.
Conservatives enter election race with clear lead in polls
Friedrich Merz's conservative alliance of the CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU) enjoy a clear lead in the polls, and the opposition leader stands a good chance of becoming Germany's next chancellor. A poll conducted by Forsa asking which party people would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday that was released on the day after the coalition's collapse yielded the following results:
CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 17%
AfD: 17%
Green Party: 11%
BSW: 6%
Left Party: 3%
FDP: 3%
Others: 10%
While the CDU/CSU leads in the polls, it will likely need to form a coalition government with other parties to secure a majority in parliament. Since the leader of the CDU's conservative Bavarian sister party CSU, Markus Söder, has ruled out entering into a coalition with the Green Party at the federal level and the conservatives also reject cooperating with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Merz may have to rely on the help of Scholz's SPD after the snap election to become chancellor.
This would be the case if the CDU's traditional ally, the FDP, fail to clear the five-percent threshold required to enter parliament. A coalition with the new nationalist-left and pro-Russia Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which was formed by former members of the Left Party, and the CDU/CSU is also highly unlikely.
6 November
Chancellor Scholz's 'traffic light coalition' collapses after sacking of finance minister
Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, after a long dispute over Germany's budget and economic policies and initiated the end of his coalition government. The step came on the same day on which the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president sent shockwaves through European capitals. It immediately weakened the EU's largest economy's ability to act, as the departure of Lindner's Free Democrats (FDP) from the 'traffic light coalition,' named after the parties' colours with Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party, means the chancellor no longer has a majority in parliament.
In his address after Lindner's sacking, Scholz proposed to form a minority government with the Greens to adopt several key policy proposals before the end of the year by forging majorities for each one of them in parliament. Besides preventing an agreement on a budget for 2025, the coalition’s collapse means that many crucial decisions, including on climate and energy policy, remain open in Germany, leading to uncertainty for its citizens, companies and European partners.
The chancellor said he would initiate a vote of confidence in parliament in mid-January, a step formally required to dissolve parliament and pave the way to the next election. According to Scholz, the snap election should take place in March 2025, roughly six months before Germany initially planned to pick a new government.
