Coalition collapse: Tracking the path to Germany's snap elections

19 February

Smaller parties could tip the coalition game balance on election night

The eventual success of smaller parties in their bid to enter parliament in the upcoming election could tip the balance on which coalition constellations are possible in the ensuing coalition talks. The pro-business FDP, the Left Party and the nationalist-left BSW all could fail to clear the five percent threshold and stay out of the Bundestag. A recent poll by broadcaster RTL found that both the FDP (5%) and the Left Party (7%) could enter parliament, while the BSW did not clear this hurdle (4%). While other surveys yielded different results, the changes are usually within the regular margin of error, meaning all outcomes remain on the cards. The more of the smaller parties make it into parliament, the more difficult it will be to secure a majority with just two coalition partners – meaning that the conservative CDU/CSU alliance might also have to rely on a third partner for forming a government despite its comfortable 30 percent lead in the polls, followed by the far-right AfD (20%), the centre-left SPD (16%) and the Green Party (13%).

Industry groups warn against damaging impact of AfD’s economic policy ideas

Industry groups have warned against damages to Germany’s economy to be caused by the far-right AfD, which for months has been polling as the second strongest party in the country. Car industry lobby group VDA said the party’s economic policy ideas would amount to “a massive loss in prosperity,” and its rejection of the EU was outright “dangerous” in terms of economic stability. “Those who deny climate change and don’t see the future as an opportunity ensure the economy’s long-term decline,” VDA head Hildegard Müller said. Digital industry group Bitkom said the AfD’s “divisive” rhetoric would “massively damage” innovation and worldwide cooperation. An analysis by economic research institute IW, meanwhile, found that the far-right party’s anti-immigration stance is putting off workers from abroad, whom Germany urgently needs to strengthen its ageing domestic labour force.    

Most German voters want more climate action from their parties

A majority of citizens in Germany want policymakers to make greater efforts in climate action irrespective of their political affiliation – with the exception of supporters of the far-right AfD. A survey conducted by public broadcaster ZDF found that SPD supporters were most interested in their party doing more on climate (66%), followed by voters of the Greens (64%) and the Left Party (53%). Exactly half (50%) of supporters of the conservative CDU/CSU alliance said their party should do more, while 40 percent said it was already doing enough. Among AfD supporters, 30 percent said they wanted the climate denialist party to step up its game, while 59 percent said it was doing enough.

18 February

German cities struggle to fund social and climate measures, call for debt brake reform

Municipalities in Germany warn that they could be running out of money soon and are struggling to implement a wide range of their tasks, including guaranteeing a reliable public transport system and investing in climate action. “Municipal budgets are massively overburdened,” said Markus Lewe, head of the Association of German Cities (Deutscher Städtetag) and mayor of Münster. A reform of Germany’s debt brake, the ceiling on new borrowing by the state, is necessary to allow cities and municipalities to make new investments, the Städtetag said.

16 February

Merz open to forming coalitions with SPD, Greens; dashes FDP’s hopes

The conservative Christian Democrats’ (CDU) chancellor candidate, Friedrich Merz, has signalled openness towards forming a coalition with either the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party after the snap election at the end of this week. However, he argued that the two parties would have to accept that their approach used in the outgoing coalition government is no longer working. “I believe that the Social Democrats have understood they cannot continue like this. I believe that the Greens have understood they cannot continue like this,” Merz said in a TV debate on broadcaster RTL that brought together the top candidates of the four largest parties in polls. Regarding the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), who traditionally have been the preferred ally of Merz’s CDU, the conservatives’ top candidate said he had “great doubts” regarding the FDP’s suitability for a new coalition government.

14 February

Foundations call on all parties to “hold course” on key climate policy

Several foundations have called on Germany’s parties to enter a cross-party consensus on not questioning basic traits of the country’s energy and climate policy. The group of 26 foundations gathered under the label “holding course” said that there already are “cornerstones developed on a broad consensus that should not be up for a vote” to make policy more socially just, economically viable and ecologically sustainable. Germany had a major global responsibility to offer constructive solutions to the different crises in the world and this “also makes credible and reliable funding strategies necessary,” the foundations, including the Bosch Foundation and Active Philanthropy, said. They explicitly named the UN sustainable development goals and the Paris Climate Agreement as key achievements that should not be called into question and added that Germany had decided to become climate neutral by 2045 after a 2021 ruling by the country’s highest court obliged the government to clarify its emissions reduction ambitions.

10 February

Failed law reform means Germany loses one year in efforts to establish CCS – cement industry

The German parliament's parties’ failure to agree on final details of a reform to allow carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Germany ahead of the election on 23 February will set efforts back significantly, industry representatives said. “We will probably lose a good year in building a CO2 infrastructure,” said Martin Schneider, managing director of cement industry association VDZ.

9 February

Climate barely addressed in Merz-Scholz TV debate, no clear winner

Media commentators saw no clear winner in a first televised debate ahead of the German elections between conservative frontrunner Friedrich Merz (CDU) and chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). The debate focused on migration and the economy, while climate policy hardly featured at all. Merz said he would introduce a climate bonus for households, using CO2 price revenues to compensate for rising CO2 costs – also promised by the outgoing government, but not yet implemented. Scholz said that after initial administrative hurdles, such a bonus could technically be paid out. However, climate researcher Brigitte Knopf said that a registry with interfaces to certain authorities and banks would first have to be filled with people’s tax IDs and bank details. She also pointed out that the CDU/CSU said in its election manifesto that it aimed to use CO2 price revenues first and foremost to lower the electricity tax and grid fees.

Free Democrats rule out coalition with Greens after election

The Free Democrats (FDP) of former finance minister Christian Lindner have ruled out forming a coalition with the Green Party after the upcoming election. However, the party currently polls around four percent, meaning it might fail to clear the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament. In addition, the leading conservative opposition party CDU have said they would prefer a coalition with only one partner, and it is unlikely that the FDP would bring a large enough faction to make this possible even it it manages to stay in parliament.

7 February

German court orders X to hand over election data

A German court handed the US social media company X a legal defeat, ruling that the platform must immediately provide researchers with access to data on politically related content ahead of the country’s Feb. 23 election, reported Politico. The lawsuit, brought by Democracy Reporting International (DRI) and the Society for Civil Rights (GFF), accused X of blocking efforts to track potential election interference by not granting them access to key engagement data — including likes, shares and visibility metrics — that other platforms made available to researchers. X's owner, Elon Musk, has come under intense criticism in Germany for its open support of the far-right AfD and repeated attacks on leading government figures through the social media platform that the billionaire bought in 2022.

"Extremely broad" range of positions offers German voters choices on energy transition – analysis

The upcoming snap election in Germany will bring a “choice of direction” for the country’s energy transition, as energy and climate policy positions vary among the different parties, found an analysis of party manifestos conducted by the Reiner Lemoine Kolleg (RLK). Proposed plans range from a continuation of the current trajectory, through to a radical turnaround.

Little movement in polls after controversy over broken firewall against far-right AfD

Polls in Germany hardly budged following the contentious debate over migration policy and the controversial move by the conservative CDU/CSU faction under party leader Friedrich Merz to breach the so-called firewall against the far-right party AfD. The alliance achieved a majority in parliament to pass a non-binding motion on migration policy with the support of the populist party.

Major polls by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF showed conservatives up by 1 percentage point compared to a week earlier. The ARD survey showed that 28 percent of respondents would find it acceptable if parties formed a coalition government with the AfD after the election, 66 percent said it would not be acceptable.

Researchers show dispute over heating law increased AfD support

Economists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have shown that initial draft plans to reform the German building energy law to phase out fossil fuels for heating increased approval ratings for the far-right AfD, reported FAZ. The draft had been leaked, leading to controversy over obligations to switch heaters and the associated costs, and was later trimmed down by the outgoing coalition government. Some parties are campaigning to abolish the law, while the government warns against this, and experts say it would not help climate protection.

6 February

Youth organisations call for fair climate policy for all generations ahead of German elections

Twenty-seven youth organisations from the fields of climate, social affairs, labour rights, development, religion, civil protection, environment and sport have called on parties competing in the February snap election to support a climate policy that is socially-just and fair for all generations.

3 February

Conservative lawmakers ponder restructuring climate responsibilities in government

Conservative lawmakers have criticised the outgoing government’s decision to mainstream climate policy across ministries, reported Tagesspiegel Background. The decision to place the policy field in the hands of several ministers – international climate policy largely with the foreign office, most national climate policies in the economy and climate ministry, and many other ministries taking over key sub-fields – had weakened the federal government's clout on this issue and made finding agreements difficult, said CSU parliamentarian Anja Weisgerber. She said national and international climate policy should be put back in the hands of the environment ministry, where it used to be. Researchers have commended the move by the outgoing government, arguing it allowed Germany to act more assertively on the international stage, for example.

Lower energy prices part of Conservative CDU’s immediate action programme

The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has drafted a 15-point immediate action programme, which it would use as a leader in possible coalition talks. Among the proposals to implement “speedily” once in power are lowering the electricity tax and grid fees so that electricity prices decrease by “at least 5 cents per kilowatt hour”, abolishing the “heating law”, and re-introducing tax rebates for diesel used in agriculture. Coalition partners would have a say on the extent in which these policies – which are part of the CDU's election manifesto – could be implemented.

2 February

Protests after Conservatives break firewall against far-right AfD, migration law vote lost

More than 200,000 people took to the streets in cities across Germany to protest right-wing extremism and a cooperation between the centre-right and far-right parties in parliament. The protests came after the conservative opposition CDU/CSU achieved a majority in parliament to pass a non-binding motion on migration policy with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – for the first time breaking the so-called firewall, a taboo on cooperation with the populist party. A vote on actual legislation was later rejected by the majority of lawmakers.

31 January

Parliament approves several last-minute energy laws

Using one of the final opportunities for enacting legislation before the snap election on 23 February, Germany's parliament passed several energy policy bills, including reforms aimed at making the electricity system more flexible, transposing EU rules for emission trading into national law, and securing support for combined heat and power plants as well as biogas plants.

Industry associations, including the energy industry association (BDEW), the solar industry association (BSW-Solar), the local utilities association (VKU) and the association of energy intensive businesses (VIK) welcomed the fact that the ruling minority of Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens found an agreement with the conservatove CDU/CSU opposition alliance.

"At the last minute, the parliament passed a series of extremely important energy laws. This is a strong signal for the energy supply and energy transition in Germany," said VKU head Ingbert Liebing.

German voters' feel lost, worried and disappointed ahead of snap elections – survey

Germany's population is increasingly feeling the consequences of a faltering economy, mismanaged migration and crumbling infrastructure, leaving voters feeling "stuck in a problematic impasse with no way out," a survey on voters' attitudes by the rheingold Institute found.

"People feel fundamentally shaken and have little confidence that a change of government will improve the situation," the qualitative survey found. "Tired of party-driven tactics and power games, people are calling for pragmatic solutions."

The institute said there reigns a feeling that policymakers are too busy getting stuck in arguments – instead of consistently tackling problems and concerning themselves with the country and its people.

Regarding possible coalitions, voters expressed a feeling of hopelessness on three levels: a lack of fresh ideas to resolve Germany's structural problems, missing an assertive crisis manager as a candidate; and no convincing coalition options.

29 January

Conservatives break longstanding firewall against far-right AfD

The conservative opposition CDU/CSU, with the support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieved a small majority in parliament to pass a non-binding motion aimed at ending irregular migration, for the first time breaking the so-called firewall, a taboo on cooperation with the populist party.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who leads the minority government until a new one has been formed after the snap elections on 23 February, accused CDU leader Friedrich Merz of crossing boundaries that should not be overstepped, calling the move a fundamental mistake.

Merz had previously said he would not bring any laws to a vote that would need the AfD to secure a majority. "The vote could mark a turning point in German politics – and change the election campaign," wrote business daily Handelsblatt. "Are the centrist parties becoming so estranged that they can hardly form a coalition? Is the entire election campaign now being turned on its head?" The Youth wing of the Green Party has said the party should reject an alliance with the CDU as a result.

"The damage may be irreparable," wrote journalist Sebastian Huld in a commentary piece. "Only one thing is certain – the AfD is celebrating. It knows what it has achieved on this historic Wednesday: to drive a deep wedge between the CDU and FDP on the one hand and the SPD and Greens on the other. A wedge that may be impossible to overcome."

27 January

Parliament to pass last-minute energy laws

Germany's parliament is set to pass a package of energy laws this week after the minority government of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens found agreements with the conservative opposition CDU/CSU. The parties agreed on laws on emissions trading, transposing changes made to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) into national regulation; control over new small-scale solar systems to prevent grid overloads during peak feed-in times and stopping state support for electricity produced during hours of negative prices; funding for bioenergy and combined heat and power plants; and distance rules for onshore wind power.

26 January

Greens agree to work on strategy for phasing out natural gas by 2045

The Green Party has agreed on drafting a strategy for phasing out natural gas use in Germany by 2045, the same year in which the country aims to become greenhouse gas neutral. At a party convention over the weekend at which the party adopted its final manifesto for the snap election, most party delegates opted for starting work on a “gas independence strategy”, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported. Parts of the Green Party had called for an earlier deadline, between 2030 and 2035, an approach that party co-leader Felix Banaszak rejected as unrealistic.

Climate action activist group Fridays for Future in a social media post called the decision that so far had not been included in the manifesto’s draft an “important first step in a long-overdue debate.” Operating fossil fuel power plants beyond the 2045 climate neutrality target year would mean that emissions in the energy industry would need to be offset or directly captured.  

22 January

CDU leader Merz criticised by left-wing parties for speech at event of former employer BlackRock

Conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz from the Christian Democrats (CDU) has been criticised by left-wing parties for joining an event hosted by his former employer, U.S. investment company BlackRock, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Der Spiegel reported. The governing Social Democrat’s (SPD) parliamentary group co-leader Rolf Mützenich said that Merz would be wrong to think he could use his experience as “a financial juggler” for Germany’s foreign policy if he was to lead the next government as chancellor. The leader of the Left Party, Jan van Aken, said Merz’s speech at the investment company’s event was “inappropriate” and “lacked instinct,” as BlackRock had put pressure on wages and social security standards around the world. Merz dropped out of the German parliament in 2009 and became chairman of BlackRock Germany until 2020, when he began a new stint in politics. The U.S. investment company pushed for stronger consideration of sustainability in recent years, but recently departed from a flagship initiative for aligning the asset management industry with international climate targets.

German parliament might yet adopt carbon storage law reform before election – media report

The outgoing government’s carbon storage law reform might still have a chance to get adopted by parliament before the election on 23 February, reported Handelsblatt. The law has been stuck in parliament as Green Party and SPD lawmakers demand changes to the text like excluding CCS on gas power plants. The two government parties no longer have a majority in parliament and adoption hinges on the support from the opposition. Conservative lawmaker Oliver Grundmann (CDU) had now signalled that his faction might for the time being drop the provision of using CCS on gas power plants, wrote the newspaper. If this provision was changed, “the law could gain a majority within the Green and SPD parliamentary groups and be passed in the Bundestag with the support of the CDU/CSU,” writes Handelsblatt.

20 January

Conservative CDU leader bullish on new gas plants, says regrets nuclear exit

The leader of the conservative Christian Democrat Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, has said Germany should build 50 new gas-fired power plants “as quickly as possible” to make the power system fit for ‘Dunkelflaute’ events of little wind and sunshine. In an interview with t-online, the politician currently most likely to become Germany’s next chancellor said his party wants to “keep the options open” for nuclear energy, for example by re-firing decommissioned reactors in the country. However, he said that this is becoming increasingly unrealistic. He called the decision to shutter Germany’s last three running reactors in mid-April 2023 a “heavy strategic mistake” due to the energy crisis. Merz’s CDU had decided to not support a law made by the outgoing coalition government of chancellor Olaf Scholz, which would have enabled the country to initiate auctions for new gas plants that are meant as backup for the power system. The conservative party also had decided Germany’s nuclear phase-out schedule under chancellor Angela Merkel in 2011, which the Scholz government then prolonged by several months due to the energy crisis.

Keeping debt brake unchanged would be “madness” by next government – trade union

Sticking to the German debt brake, the ceiling on new government borrowing, in its current form would be “madness” for the next government, the head of Germany’s United Services Trade Union (Verdi), Frank Werneke, has warned in an interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Given the urgent need for investments into climate action, transport infrastructure, health care, and other areas, Germany risks to damage its standing as a business location if it does not address the need for sufficient funding, Werneke said. “The next government must sweepingly reform the debt brake, because otherwise the required investments will not be made,” Werneke argued, adding that the country’s excellent standing on credit markets and low debt quota would justify taking on more debt. As the country’s second biggest trade union, Verdi represents almost two million workers in the German services sector.

15 January

Electrical companies warn Germany's energy transition must not become bargaining chip in election

Electrical and IT companies in Germany have called on Germany's parties to not discredit the energy transition in the federal election campaign leading up to the vote on 23 February. Clear and stable framework conditions are crucial to support economic growth and maintain the country’s position as Europe’s economic powerhouse, said the Central Association of German Electrical and Information Technology Trades (ZVEH) in a position paper.

14 January

Majority of Germans agree next govt should ramp up climate protection efforts – survey

A majority of people in Germany (53%) agree that the next government should do more for climate protection, according to a survey commissioned by environmental NGO umbrella organisation Climate-Alliance Germany. Support was fractured along party lines: most voters of the Green party, the Social Democrats (SPD), the Left Party and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) agreed with the statement, while less than half of the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the nationalist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) voters did.

13 January

Parties flesh out election programmes

Several of Germany's parties have specified their ideas on how to ease the burden of energy costs on households and companies, sometimes beyond party election programmes. The CDU adopted an “Agenda 2030” that promises to reduce the price of electricity, while the SPD officially adopted its party manifesto. The populist far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), as well as the Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), a populist left anti-immigrant outfit, also detailed or added to their election promises.

[Find German parties’ energy and climate policy positions here]

9 January

Migration and economy most important problems for Germans – survey

Germans consider migration (37%) and the economy (34%) the most important problems currently facing the country, a survey by pollster infratest dimap for public broadcaster ARD showed. Issues relating to war and peace (14 percent), the environment and climate (13 percent) and social injustice (11 percent) follow at some distance. Almost half of respondents agreed that proposals such as abolishing the CO2 price (48%) and introducing a buyer’s premium for EVs made in Germany “go in the right direction”.

Student climate activists call for climate neutrality 2035

The Fridays for Future student climate activist group presented its demands ahead of the February snap election in Germany, which included a call for climate neutrality and a fossil gas exit in the country by 2035. The activists also propose to introduce a wealth tax to help finance the transition, as well as a fund for climate adaptation which would be financed by fossil fuel companies.

6 January

Conservatives with comfortable lead in polls at start of 2025

The conservative CDU/CSU alliance with chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz continues to lead the polls with a sizeable advantage over other parties, according to the first surveys of 2025. Pollster INSA says the CDU/CSU leads with 31 percent, followed by the far-right AfD with 20 percent, the SPD of chancellor Olaf Scholz (16%), and the Greens (13%).

3 January 2025

Bavarian conservatives call for new EV buyer’s premium after election

Markus Söder, head of the Christian Social Union (CSU) – the sister party of the CDU, which leads in the polls – has said he aims to introduce a new “e-mobility premium” after the election. Such a subsidy is not part of the joint election campaign programme of CDU and CSU. Söder told Augsburger Allgemeine Zeitung that Germany needed a “car plan” to support the transformation of the sector. German chancellor Olaf Scholz meanwhile called for EU solutions to incentivise car purchases, such as tax cuts, in a letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

News agency Reuters reported that the CSU would debate an additional campaign document during a party conference on 6 – 8 January, which reiterates several proposals from the joint programme with the CDU, but goes beyond it in other demands. The “Comeback Plan” for the German economy calls for lower company taxes, competitive energy prices and less bureaucracy. The document calls for a German-French nuclear energy alliance, and abolishing the controversial heating law.

27 December

German president dissolves parliament, snap election on 23 February 2025

German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier has officially dissolved the country’s national parliament, the Bundestag, as expected. Following the vote of confidence, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost in mid-December, Steinmeier said he could not see any other majority coalition emerging, and that snap elections are the “right way to go for the good of our country”. The country’s major political forces had agreed earlier to hold snap elections on 23 February 2025, a date which the president now confirmed.

Bundestag president Bärbel Bas reiterated that the parliament remained “fully operational” until a new one comes together. There would be plenary sittings as well as committee meetings in the coming months to work on outstanding legislative decisions. [Without a majority in parliament, the current government of SPD and Greens depends on the opposition for legislative votes.]

20 December

Parties bolster constitutional court, cut gas storage levy as parliament holds last session of the year

The parties in Germany’s parliament and the council of states have made the last policy decisions for 2024, including protecting the country’s constitutional court from political influence and changes to its gas storage levy. Changes to the court’s functioning will now have to be made with a two-thirds majority in parliament. The move that the collapsed coalition government coordinated with the conservative opposition parties CDU/CSU is meant to reduce the risks emanating from populist parties, including the far-right AfD and the nationalist-left BSW, both of which are active supporters of Russia’s government. The parties also decided that the gas storage levy will no longer be imposed on cross-border transports, a measure that other EU states, including Austria, Slovakia, and Czechia, had called for to ease the shift away from Russian gas deliveries.

German president to announce decision dissolving parliament on 27 December

The official decision on the dissolution of Germany’s parliament following a vote of confidence on Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be announced on 27 December, president Frank-Walte Steinmeier has said. The decision is needed after Scholz lost the vote, which opened the door for snap elections in early 2025 after his coalition government collapsed in early November. Since the German parliament by law cannot dissolve itself, president Steinmeier must approve the move and pave the way to the elections that are expected to take place on 23 February next year.

18 December

Finance ministry aims to enable direct support payments to citizens for next government

Finance minister Jörg Kukies has said the minority government aims to make direct payments to citizens technically and legally feasible before the end of the year. “This will alow us to support people quickly and in a targeted way,” the SPD politician said according to a report by news agency dpa. Kukies said the system would initially only allow lump-sum payments, but could be adapted to link support to income levels at a later stage. However, the minister, who entered office in November, said it would be up to the next government to decide for which support schemes the new payout option should be used.

The government ran into technical difficulties regarding direct payments to citizens when it wanted to disburse support money during the energy crisis. The technical hurdles also prevented the introduction of a ‘climate bonus’ scheme that was part of the collapsed coalition government’s programme as a measure to compensate citizens for rising carbon prices in the heating and transport sector.

17 December

CDU, SPD, Greens present initial election party programmes

The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens have all presented their preliminary party programmes ahead of the February snap elections.

In its final programme, the conservative party alliance of the CDU and CSU said it wants to establish Germany as an innovation location for future technologies, and that car manufacturing should be maintained as a leading German industry. The SPD's preliminary programme focuses on the economy, employment and social issues, proposing to cut grid fees by half and to relax the country's debt brake. The Green party's draft programme calls for major investments in Germany’s infrastructure, energy system, industry, and to use the energy transition as an opportunity for strengthening the economy.

The SPD and Green party programmes will be adopted early next year.

16 December

Scholz loses Bundestag confidence vote, sets official process for snap elections in motion

Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the German parliament as expected, officially setting the process for snap elections in motion. Scholz triggered the confidence vote with the deliberate intention of losing it since his government no longer held a majority in parliament following the coalition's collapse in early November.

Germany's president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, by law now has 21 days to announce a decision on dissolving parliament. Steinmeier previously had indicated that he would grant the request. The president is expected to then call a new election, set to take place on 23 February.

Sahra Wagenknecht to run as chancellor candidate for own party

Sahra Wagenknecht is set to run as chancellor candidate for the left-wing nationalist, anti-immigrant and pro-Russia Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), news agency dpa reported. "We have decided to take this step so that our competitors do not gain an unfair advantage," BSW's general secretary Christian Leye told the news agency. However, the party does not see a realistic chance of leading the next federal government, Leye said.

12 December

Germany delays gas plant decision due to government's lack of support in parliament

The economy ministry (BMWK) has said that the minority government no longer sees a chance to adopt the law for preparing the construction of news gas-fired power plants before the elections in February. The so-called Power Plant Security Act was meant to ensure that the hydrogen-ready gas plants are built and enable Germany to pursue its coal phase-out ambitions while guaranteeing supply security amid periods of low renewable power output.
The conservative opposition party Christian Democratic Union (CDU) reportedly had signalled that it will not support the law in parliament, meaning the minority government of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party lacks the numbers needed to get the law passed.

11 December

Scholz submits request for vote of confidence to parliament’s president

Chancellor Olaf Scholz submitted his call for a vote of confidence to the president of Germany’s parliament to prepare the vote scheduled for 16 December. "I want to open the way for snap elections," Scholz said in a social media post. The chancellor informed parliament head Bärbel Bas well before the 48-hour deadline required by law. Scholz is expected to lose the ballot, which would open the way to snap elections on 23 February, as president Frank-Walter Steinmeier is expected to give his consent to dissolve parliament after the vote.

9 December

Carbon capturing plans stall amid ongoing talks after German coalition break-up

It remains unclear whether Germany’s planned reform of its carbon storage law will make it through parliament ahead of the snap election in February 2025. The government introduced a draft into parliament ahead of the coalition break-up, but lawmakers from chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens aim for additional changes.

No gas power plant deal before election threat to East German coal exit – labour union

A legislative standstill in plans to build new gas-fired power plants poses a threat to the transformation of East German coal-mining regions, the German Trade Union Confederation (DGB) has said. The break-up of Germany’s coalition government has thrown into question whether a law to prepare auctions for the new plants can be passed by before the snap elections in February 2025.

6 December

Climate lead over economy shrinks in German voter priorities – survey

Climate action has dropped in German voters’ priorities vs economic growth over the course of the past five years, according to a survey conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), which has close links to the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU). Of the three topics surveyed – immigration, climate protection and the welfare state – “the strongest shift in German attitudes in recent years has been on the issue of climate protection,” KAS said. On average, people still said that climate action should have priority even if it hurts the economy. However, “in the context of current domestic and foreign policy crises, the tendency in society as a whole to prioritise climate protection over economic growth has weakened considerably,” said KAS.

5 December

Germany's Conservatives rule out helping minority government to pass budget-related laws before election

The leader of Germany's largest opposition party, Friedrich Merz, has ruled out helping the minority government of chancellor Olaf Scholz to get major policy projects across the line if they affect the government budget. “The German parliament will not be making any major decisions any longer, at least not with our consent,” the Conservative (CDU) politician said.

4 December

Conservatives rule out helping minority government to pass budget-related laws before election

Conservative (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz rules out helping the minority government of chancellor Scholz to get major policy projects across the line if they affect the government budget. “The German parliament will not be making any major decisions any longer, at least not with our consent,” Merz said.

Conservatives to publish election programme on 17 December

The Conservative alliance of CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, say they will publish its election programme on 17 December, the day after Scholz is set to hold a motion of confidence in parliament.

29 November

FDP secretary general steps down following revelations about planned coalition dismantling

The secretary general of the Free Democrats (FDP), Bijan Djir-Sarai, has stepped down from his position. The move followed revelations that the party had meticulously planned its retreat from the coalition government of Olaf Scholz before the chancellor fired FDP leader Christian Lindner as finance minister in early November. A document released by the party confirmed allegations that the FDP establishment had referred to the intended government collapse as “D-day” in internal deliberations with the aim of putting an early end to Germany’s coalition government.

The released paper that used bellicose language for describing the government’s dismantling from the inside was met with fierce criticism by members of Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party, the FDP’s former coalition partners, but also by members of the conservative opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). Politicians criticised the FDP for destabilising Germany and Europe in a period of economic stagnation as well as security threats from Russia and geopolitical uncertainty following the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president. 

The FDP is currently polling below the five-percent threshold needed to enter parliament after the snap elections in February.

27 November

Snap elections no immediate threat for industry decarbonisation

The German snap elections and several weeks of coalition talks are not a threat to plans by the country’s industry to decarbonise, said industry association BDI’s president Siegfried Russwurm in an interview. “Industry is committed to decarbonisation,” he said. The next government would then face the task of implementing the transformation and ensuring the right investment conditions.

Nationalist-left party BSW wants to reverse key climate legislation

The left-wing nationalist, anti-immigrant and pro-Russia Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has published an election campaign paper, which calls for the reversal of key climate legislation. “Germany needs a 180-degree turnaround in economic and energy policy, a significant reduction in energy prices, investment in modern infrastructure and a noticeable reduction in superfluous requirements and reporting obligations,” says the document. It adds that the BSW – if in power – would aim to abolish CO2 pricing, the ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035, and the German law to phase out fossil fuel heating.

25 November

Law on new gas power plants hangs in balance

A planned law to ensure new gas power plants can be built in Germany to secure electricity supply as the country phases out coal power continues to hang in the balance after the coalition government's break-up. The economy ministry presented a new draft of the Power Plant Security Act, which could enable the country to hold tenders for hydrogen-ready gas power plants as early as the first half of 2025. The draft is now awaiting approval by other ministries ahead of a full cabinet decision, set for 4 December. The goal is to then get it through parliament ahead before the snap elections. However, lawmakers from the opposition CDU - whose support the minority government needs to pass the law – have said they would oppose the bill.

SPD nominates Scholz as chancellor candidate, final confirmation on 11 January

The Social Democrats have officially announced chancellor Olaf Scholz as the party's candidate in February's early elections, newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung reported. His candidacy will then be confirmed at a party conference on 11 January. The move follows disputes within the party as to who should lead it in the snap elections, given Scholz's low approval rating in the polls.

21 November

Popular minister Pistorius backs Olaf Scholz as SPD chancellor candidate

Defence minister Boris Pistorius has taken himself out of the race to become the Social Democrats’ chancellor candidate ahead of the February snap elections. In a video message, he backed chancellor Olaf Scholz's re-election bid. Senior SPD party members had expressed support for Pistorius' candidacy and replacing the current top candidate, as Scholz's approval ratings are well below those of the current defence minister Pistorius in polls.

SPD and Greens match on polls, CDU/CSU continues to lead comfortably

The Green party and the SPD received the same level of support in the latest poll by Infratest dimap. The poll, asking which party people would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, yielded the following results:

• CDU/CSU: 33%
• AfD: 19%
• SPD: 14%
• Green Party: 14%
• BSW: 6%
• Left Party: 3%
• FDP: 4%
• Others: 7%

19 November

Unrest within SPD around upcoming chancellor candidate

Debate among chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) continues on who should lead the party into the 23 February snap election. Some high-level SPD parliamentary group members have spoken out against Scholz's candidacy, asking instead for current defence minister Boris Pistorius, who has higher approval ratings in polls, to be the upcoming chancellor candidate.

"We are hearing a lot of support for Boris Pistorius," wrote Wiebke Esdar and Dirk Wiese, chairpersons of the NRW regional group of the SPD parliamentary group, in a joint statement. "One thing is clear: ultimately, the party committees will decide on the question of the candidate for chancellor, and that is the right place to do so."

At a press conference held on 19 November following the G20 summit, Scholz himself said that the SPD is "going into this election in order to emerge from it successfully.” He added: "We want to win together, me and the SPD – and that is the message that I would like to emphasise once again here."

17 November

Green Party officially nominates Habeck as candidate for chancellor

Economy minister Robert Habeck has officially been nominated as the Green Party’s top candidate for the upcoming snap elections. At a party convention in southwestern city Wiesbaden, Habeck received over 96 percent of the votes and declared his intention to lead the party into the campaign for the ballot on 23 February. The minister said the chancellery was in reach for his party only if it seized a momentum that “carries us very far”. The Greens currently poll at about 11 percent.

15 November

Media report says FDP had prepared coalition break-up for several weeks

The break-up of Germany’s coalition government had been planned for several weeks by finance minister Christian Lindner and his pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), according to reports in the newspapers Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The party establishment had referred to the intended government collapse as “D-day” since at least September, and called a position paper with controversial policy demands by Lindner that surfaced shortly before the break-up a “torpedo” that would blow up the coalition.

Lindner was ultimately sacked by chancellor Olaf Scholz on 6 November, which was followed by him and two other FDP ministers leaving the government. A third, transport minister Volker Wissing, remained in office and left the FDP instead. Senior members of the FDP’s former coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party, reacted with contempt to the reports, while Lindner said they did not reveal anything newsworthy, and that chancellor Scholz had also been considering Lindner’s sacking for weeks.

Flat-rate Germany public transport ticket secure for 2025 after Conservatives consent to funding

Germany’s largest opposition group in parliament, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, has supported the continuation of the country’s national flat-rate public transport ticket. The offer should continue next year but passengers are likely to be hit with a price rise. The parliamentary group of the Christian Democrat Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), said it would back funding the scheme. However, the opposition party said the decision would only be formally adopted after Scholz’s vote of confidence in parliament, scheduled for 16 December.

14 November

Little change in party preferences as election schedule becomes clear

The preferences of German voters for political parties have only shown moderate changes in a first major poll after the coalition’s collapse and ahead of the snap election in February. The poll by YouGov saw conservative CDU/CSU alliance keeping its comfortable lead (33%) ahead of the far-right AfD (19%), both up by one percent compared to a month earlier. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD (15%) slightly dropped in voter preferences but still came ahead of the Green Party (12%), which gained one percentage point. The nationalist-left BSW dropped one percentage point (7%), while preferences for the pro-business FDP (5%) and the Left Party (3%) remained unchanged.

Quick compromises needed on open energy policy proposals, German state energy ministers say

The collapse of Germany’s coalition government could threaten important energy transition projects across the country if no precautions are taken quickly, said the current head of the energy minister conference of Germany’s 16 states, Reinhard Meyer. “The coalition’s break-up must not lead to projects getting delayed or even failing,” the energy minister of northern state Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania said.

Uncertainty over climate friendly construction programmes after German government’s break-up

Programmes supporting climate friendly construction in Germany could become severely affected by the break-up of Germany’s coalition government, the building owner protection association BHB has warned. The country will likely enter 2025 on a provisional budget that provides no certainty whether certain schemes are continued, the group said.

13 November

Energy industry urges German lawmakers to put policy stability ahead of party politics

Policymakers in parliament should help the minority government of chancellor Olaf Scholz get key energy policy proposals over the line before the upcoming snap election, the Federation of German Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) has said. The parliament would only have two full weeks to debate and decide remaining proposals the energy industry lobby group said.

Scholz confirms election schedule, calls for investments into security and economy

Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed that he would initiate a vote of confidence to be decided by parliament on 16 December. In a government declaration in the Bundestag, he said that this would allow Germans to head to the polls on 23 February 2025. “The date is set,” said Scholz. The chancellor called the federal budget and state debt a defining issue of the election campaign, stressing that simultaneous investments in security – for example by supporting Ukraine – and in the economy are possible. “We need to strengthen our security now, but we also need to invest in a modern economy and good jobs, in infrastructure and technologies for the good jobs of the future," Scholz said.

Conservative CDU leader says reform of country’s debt brake is “of course” possible

The head of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, has said that reforming German state debt rules and allow the government to borrow more money would “of course” be possible. At a debate in Berlin, the leader of the largest opposition party said reforming the constitutional debt limit would depend on what additional funds are being used for, arguing that a reform to allow more investments would be a viable option, public broadcaster BR reported.

12 November

Nationalist-left BSW leader Wagenknecht worried about early election date

The head of the nationalist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), Sahra Wagenknecht, has said the likely early election date on 23 February would pose challenges to her newly formed party, public broadcaster ARD reported. “We’ll have to work hard now to get donations” and “get through the campaign well.” The leader of the pro-Russia party also said that the short preparation time meant that the BSW’s election programme would have to be developed faster than initially planned, which would cut the available time to draft certain parts of the manifesto.

SPD leaders back Scholz amid internal “grumbling” over renewed candidacy

The head of the Social Democrats’ (SPD) parliamentary group, Rolf Mützenich, has said that some SPD policymakers are “grumbling” over the prospect of a renewed candidacy to become chancellor by incumbent government leader Olaf Scholz. “These kind of voices of course exists, too,” Mützenich told public broadcaster ZDF. However, he said that the SPD knew it would have act with one voice in the upcoming election and that he was “convinced” that Scholz will be the party’s candidate. Other senior SPD members also backed Scholz in the prevoius days, who some say should make way for the more popular defense minister Boris Pistorius as candidate.

Lawmakers agree on 23 February as date for snap election

The parliamentary groups of chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the largest opposition group, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance, have agreed on 23 February as the provisional date for Germany’s upcoming snap election. Scholz had earlier said that he would accept such an agreement and initiate a vote of confidence in parliament. The Bundestag will likely vote on it on 16 December, reported public broadcaster ARD. After that, the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, can dissolve parliament and call new elections within a period of 60 days.

Electoral management body says February election can be safely carried out

Holding a snap election in February does not pose any legal or organsiational challenges that could damage the vote’s integrity, said the head of Germany’s electoral management body, Ruth Brand. Implementing an election in the second month of 2025 would be “manageable,” Brand told members of parliament in a hearing. After the collapse of Germany’s coalition government, Brand warned that rushing to a snap election without sufficient time to prepare could lead to irregularities that might compromise voter confidence in the process.

11 November

Economy minister urges cross-party effort in Germany to hold course on climate and energy policy

A cross-party effort in Germany is necessary to avoid that key policy proposals needed to achieve national climate and energy targets fall victim to the government coalition’s break-up, economy minister Robert Habeck has warned. Speaking at an energy conference in Berlin, the minister said entire German regions expect clarity on the construction of new backup power plants and investments in the energy transition, which no party should use as bargaining chips in the upcoming election campaign.

Country’s largest ballot paper printing firm warns against January election

The CEO of Germany’s largest printing firm for ballot papers has warned that a snap election in January would come with a lot of organisational challenges that could pose a challenge to the election process’s integrity. “With a lot of effort, we would probably be able to pull it off,” CEO Bastian Beeck of printing company Köllen Druck und Verlag, which supplies most of the country’s 11,000 municipalities with ballot papers for elections, told news magazine Stern.

German states worried that coalition collapse could increase price of flat-rate local transport ticket

Germany’s states have voiced concerns that the collapse of chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government could increase the price of the country’s ‘Germany ticket’ for a countrywide public transport use flat rate. The funding of the ticket that in 2024 cost just under 50 euros per month has been a contentious issue from the onset. While the coalition’s collapse and the lack of an agreed budget for 2025 did not immediately cut funding, the states Baden-Wurttemberg and Lower Saxony warned that unused funds from this year had to be transferred to avoid price spikes.

10 November

Scholz ready to call for vote of confidence in December

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said he is open to calling a vote of confidence already in December and thus about one month earlier than he initially planned to do after the collapse of his coalition government on 6 November. In an interview on public broadcaster ARD, Scholz however warned that this should only happen if it can be guaranteed that the elections can be implemented without any organisational problems. 

Election assessment committee to debate on snap election’s timing

A committee of members of parliament and Germany’s electoral management body could debate the best timing for snap elections in a meeting on 12 November. The Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party had asked parliament president Bärbel Bas (SPD) to install the committee to discuss the earliest possible date for the earlier 2025 elections, reported Tagesspiegel.

8 November

Electoral management body warns against fast-tracking snap elections

The head of Germany’s electoral management body Federal Returning Officer, Ruth Brand, has warned of “incalculable” risks over a fast-tracked snap election in January or February 2025. In a letter to chancellor Olaf Scholz, Brand said that the timing preferred by opposition parties could overwhelm administrations, especially at the local level and during the Christmas holidays, and lead to irregularities in the election process that could damage voters’ trust in the process. The process could also run into logistical challenges due to difficulties in procuring the necessary amount of ballot papers and pose challenges to smaller parties in particular to arrange all the required documents to participate in the vote, Brand added.

Economy minister Robert Habeck says he wants to lead Green Party in election

Economy and climate minister Habeck wants to lead the Green Party in the upcoming snap election, the current vice chancellor announces in a video. Party delegates will have to agree on his candidacy at a party conference at the end of next week.

SPD supporters favour defence minister Pistorius as future party leader – survey

A majority (58 percent) of SPD supporters said current defence minister Boris Pistorius should lead the party at the next elections, compared to 30 percent in favour of current chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to a Forsa poll published by the Oldenburger Onlinezeitung.

7 November

Conservative opposition leader Merz calls for enabling snap election immediately

The leader of Germany's largest opposition party, Friedrich Merz from the conservative Christian Democrat Union (CDU), has rejected Olaf Scholz's schedule for enabling snap elections in spring 2025. He instead said the chancellor should initiate a vote of confidence in parliament the week after his government collapsed to allow a snap election to take place as early as January 2025. By leading a minority government of his SPD and the Green Party, Scholz needs the votes of other parties in parliament to get several pending policy proposals across the line that his coalition government had prepared before it broke up.

However, a meeting between Merz and Scholz on the day after the government's break-up ended without a clear result regarding the snap election's roadmap. The CDU said it would assess which policy proposals it would be ready to help Scholz get across the line before the end of the year if he agrees to quickly pave the way for elections.

Most Germans in favour of quick snap election

Almost two-thirds (65%) of respondents in a survey by public broadcaster ARD said they favour quick snap elections after the collapse of Scholz's government coalition. One third (33%) approved of the chancellor's plan to hold a vote of confidence in mid-January to enable an election in March. The opposition instead has called for holding a vote of confidence in the week after the government's collapse and a snap election in January.

A clear majority of respondents (59%) said they welcome the coalition government's early end. However, most said they do not think that chancellor Scholz and his SPD party is to blame for the collapse: 40 percent said finance minister Christian Lindner's FDP has undermined the coalition, while 26 percent blamed the Green Party and 19 percent the SPD.

Conservatives enter election race with clear lead in polls

Friedrich Merz's conservative alliance of the CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU) enjoy a clear lead in the polls, and the opposition leader stands a good chance of becoming Germany's next chancellor. A poll conducted by Forsa asking which party people would vote for if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday that was released on the day after the coalition's collapse yielded the following results:

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 17%
AfD: 17%
Green Party: 11%
BSW: 6%
Left Party: 3%
FDP: 3%
Others: 10%

While the CDU/CSU leads in the polls, it will likely need to form a coalition government with other parties to secure a majority in parliament. Since the leader of the CDU's conservative Bavarian sister party CSU, Markus Söder, has ruled out entering into a coalition with the Green Party at the federal level and the conservatives also reject cooperating with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), Merz may have to rely on the help of Scholz's SPD after the snap election to become chancellor.

This would be the case if the CDU's traditional ally, the FDP, fail to clear the five-percent threshold required to enter parliament. A coalition with the new nationalist-left and pro-Russia Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which was formed by former members of the Left Party, and the CDU/CSU is also highly unlikely. 

6 November

Chancellor Scholz's 'traffic light coalition' collapses after sacking of finance minister

Chancellor Scholz sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, after a long dispute over Germany's budget and economic policies and initiated the end of his coalition government. The step came on the same day on which the re-election of Donald Trump as U.S. president sent shockwaves through European capitals. It immediately weakened the EU's largest economy's ability to act, as the departure of Lindner's Free Democrats (FDP) from the 'traffic light coalition,' named after the parties' colours with Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party, means the chancellor no longer has a majority in parliament.

In his address after Lindner's sacking, Scholz proposed to form a minority government with the Greens to adopt several key policy proposals before the end of the year by forging majorities for each one of them in parliament. Besides preventing an agreement on a budget for 2025, the coalition’s collapse means that many crucial decisions, including on climate and energy policy, remain open in Germany, leading to uncertainty for its citizens, companies and European partners.

The chancellor said he would initiate a vote of confidence in parliament in mid-January, a step formally required to dissolve parliament and pave the way to the next election. According to Scholz, the snap election should take place in March 2025, roughly six months before Germany initially planned to pick a new government.