CLEW Guide – Snap elections add new uncertainties to Germany's 2030 climate targets

• As Europe’s largest economy, Germany is a key energy hub in the heart of the continent.
• Greenhouse gas emissions have decreased 48 percent since 1990 and Germany aims for climate neutrality by 2045.
• Germany’s trademark “Energiewende” – the country’s transition to climate neutral and nuclear-free energy supply – has broad public backing.
• Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP fell apart over budget controversies, which also included disagreements over the right way forward for the country’s energy transition. German voters head to the polls on 23 February 2025 for a snap election, against the backdrop of a flagging economy, the war in Ukraine, and the second Trump presidency in the U.S. The break-up leaves the country with a host of unfinished policy proposals that risk grinding to a halt until a new government is sworn in. [CLEW is continuously tracking the most recent developments on the road to snap elections in this overview]
• According to recent polls, the leader of the opposition Conservative CDU/CSU alliance, Friedrich Merz, has the best chances to succeed the unpopular Scholz as chancellor. Merz’s Conservatives have often sharply criticised the government’s energy and climate policies in recent years, suggesting that certain priorities are set to change under a new government. However, the fundamentals of the country’s landmark energy transition are highly unlikely to change, as they enjoy cross-party support.
• Huge gains by populist parties that oppose the government's fundamental climate and energy positions in three state elections in eastern Germany over the summer cast a shadow over the progress of the country’s energy transition, and the upcoming snap elections. Parties are bracing themselves for a difficult election campaign as far-right and pro-Russia populist politicians stand to benefit from the increasingly politicised climate debates. [Find more background in this factsheet on East Germany and the energy transition and our deep dive into the impact of the rise of populists in power].
• While still intact, the coalition presented a comprehensive Climate Action Programme in 2023 to put the country on track towards reaching its climate targets. However, months-long disputes on key climate policies – such as the phase-out of new oil and gas heaters – have held up progress.
• Projections by the country's Federal Environment Agency (UBA) showed that the country is on track towards achieving its 2030 climate targets for the first time, not least thanks to the resolute expansion of renewable energy sources.
• Germany continues to struggle with high emissions, especially in the transport and buildings sectors. Moreover, demand for electric cars is sluggish, with carmaker Volkswagen preparing layoffs at production sites as sales of EVs slump. The current government target of putting 15 million electric cars on the road by 2030 increasingly looks difficult to reach, and observers are expecting the country to miss it by up to five years. Car manufacturers are also slowing down or scaling back plans to switch their production towards EVs.

Major transition stories

• Government without a budget –  Germany’s coalition collapsed over budget controversies almost exactly one year after a constitutional court ruling on Germany's so-called debt brake that declared tens of billions of euros earmarked for climate and transition projects as unlawfully booked. Provisional spending takes effect until a new government is sworn in and decides a budget, which might take as long as mid-2025. This spells months of uncertainty for Germany’s industry, and many other climate and energy plans.
• Economic woes – Germany’s political upheaval is playing out against the backdrop of growing concern about the economy as a whole, fuelled by an ongoing decline of manufacturing activity, a weakening labour market, and mounting worries about the future of the country’s carmakers in particular. VW, the country’s largest private employer, aims to cut 35,000 jobs by 2030.
• Country on track to reaching national 2030 climate target – Germany is largely on track to reaching its national target to reduce total greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent by 2030, according to projections by the country's Federal Environment Agency (UBA). However, the projections overestimated the amount of emissions which would be cut in the coming years, said the Council of Experts on Climate Change, which blamed the misjudgement on climate budget cuts and outdated assumptions about gas and CO2 allowance prices. Germany also still looks set to also fail its EU goal for sectors such as transport, buildings and agriculture.
• Climate foreign policy – Germany is seen as a credible leader in international climate talks despite shortcomings at home, and has hosted the annual Petersberg Climate Dialogue for more than a decade. The government published a climate foreign policy strategy set to ensure all government ministries speak with one voice to international partners to foster a socially just and economically successful move to climate neutrality worldwide. The strategy accompanies the security policy strategy and a China strategy, both published in 2023.
• Just transition – What started out with a debate about supporting coal workers in mining regions and state subsidies for so-called “structural change” is increasingly turning into a cross-societal debate about leaving no one behind in the transition to climate neutrality. Installing a heat pump, buying an electric car or dealing with higher fuel costs due to CO2 pricing affects everyone, but low-income households will need more support to manage the changes. A just transition will become a big issue not only in Germany, but across Europe, when the new EU emissions trading system for transport and buildings starts in 2027. The "climate bonus," which the government promised in its coalition agreement and which would return some of the revenue from Germany's carbon pricing to low-income citizens, will not be delivered in this legislative period.
• Sustainable finance – In contrast to its reputation as an energy transition pioneer, Germany has been a latecomer in tapping into the potential of compelling banks, insurance companies, fund managers and other financial actors to curtail CO2-intensive projects and fund cleaner alternatives. The German government coalition under chancellor Scholz has vowed to quickly expand the country's role in the transition to green and sustainable investment practices and fully integrate the financial sector in its climate policies.
• Adaptation – The latest climate change monitoring report urged Germany to step up its efforts to adapt to the already unavoidable effects of climate change. The country faces a multitude of negative impacts, including prolonged droughts, severe water loss, floods, and increasing temperatures. The government has passed a law making it legally binding to draw up climate risk assessments and implement adaptation measures. It presented the accompanying Climate Adaptation Strategy which, for the first time, contains measurable targets and measures to increase preparedness. In addition, the government presented a water strategy and a natural climate action strategy.
• Carbon removal – Another key project on hold is the government’s long-term strategy for negative emissions, which was meant to introduce a 2060 target for net-negative greenhouse gas emissions and intermediate targets for technical carbon sinks. The strategy, of which the government released a first outline, was meant to look at different methods to capture, remove, store and use carbon dioxide and consider economic incentives to help ramp up the corresponding industrial infrastructure.
• Supply security – The crucial Power Plant Security Act will not be adopted before the election. The law is supposed to prepare auctions for Germany’s planned fleet of hydrogen-ready gas plants, which will be needed to stabilise the energy system amid its transition to 100 percent renewable energy sources. Germany’s electricity system remains one of the most reliable in the world amid the expansion of wind and solar, despite the nuclear exit and the fallout from the energy crisis in 2023.
• Climate protests – Following the large success of youth protests led by the Fridays for Future movement since 2018, which helped convince large parts of society that ambitious action is needed, more drastic forms of protests such as activists gluing themselves to streets or throwing paint at art works and landmarks such as the Brandenburg Gate provoked mainly negative reactions. Faced with dwindling numbers of participants, Fridays for Future has begun teaming up with other interest groups in society and launched a protest for better public transport funding together with labour union Verdi, which represents workers in the sector. The “Last Generation” (Letzte Generation) group has said it is dropping its name and will change its tactics by focusing on social issues related to climate change.
• Raw materials and recycling – The energy crisis fuelled by Russia’s war against Ukraine has pushed the dependence on imports of key raw materials high on the subjects for  debate in Germany and Europe. The government presented a draft circular economy strategy, and has adopted its China strategy. The EU also presented a Raw Materials Act to ensure the union has access to critical materials needed for energy transition technologies.
• 'Franco-German engine' – The European Union faces a multitude of parallel challenges that share the question of how and where it sources its energy in the future. From the increasing urgency to act on emissions reduction over security risks raised by Russia's war on Ukraine to economic stability in a world of rapid industrial change, the two core EU members France and Germany must come clean on the bloc's energy strategy to make it fit for the tasks ahead, but headlines have been dominated by division over the role of nuclear plants, renewables and combustion engines. The election of Donald Trump as U.S. president could help boost cooperation.
• Skills shortage – Major roadblocks on the path to climate neutrality include a lack of skilled workers to implement renewable energy expansion plans and energy efficiency projects, as well as grid expansion. The government has reformed immigration laws with the aim of filling tens of thousands of vacant energy transition jobs.

Sector overview

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• CLEW’s Easy Guide to Germany’s transition with background information and links to key energy and climate data.