Vote25: Next German government must shape unified EU response as Trump shakes global order
Content
- Next government must rethink foreign policy
- Germany must reset relations with EU partners, ensure national priorities serve broader European interest
- CDU-led government could put brakes on elements of European Green Deal
- International climate finance under budget pressure
- New LNG deals diplomacy with Trump?
The first weeks of re-elected U.S. president Donald Trump in office have set a challenging scene for the next German government after the snap election, heralding in a new era of geopolitics and pushing transatlantic relations to a new low. Defence policy and the future of Ukraine are in the spotlight, but the coalition that will govern Europe’s biggest economy for the next four years will have a key role in making the EU competitive on the world stage, further shaping the climate-friendly transition and ensuring energy security.
Europeans have struggled to react as the new U.S. administration decided to sideline both Ukraine and the EU in initial talks with Russia over a possible peace deal and thus ending the approach of a united voice of western countries since the start of Russia’s war. Defence secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised that America would no longer be the “primary guarantor” of European security, which it has been for decades.
And in a speech that stumped the high-level audience at the Munich Security Conference in Germany’s south, U.S. vice president JD Vance accused Europe of censoring free speech, effectively coming out in support of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party just days before the snap election. One day later, chancellor Olaf Scholz told the security conference audience that Germany would “not accept it if outsiders interfere in our democracy, in our elections.”
Thus, the deepening of the biggest foreign policy challenge Europe has faced in decades has ended up squarely in Germany’s campaign sprint before the election on 23 February.
“The EU is currently somewhat paralysed by anti-European right-wing governments or France having to deal with internal political crises, so the next German government must also ensure that EU external relations are better coordinated towards a strong EU role in the world,” says Marc Weissgerber, head of the Berlin office of think tank E3G.
It is a scandal how unprepared we are in Europe for what‘s happening.
“The response to Trump must be a strong EU,” he told Clean Energy Wire, adding that in the geopolitical context, the EU needs a strong and pro-European approach by its largest member state Germany.
Following the break-up of chancellor Scholz's coalition government, Germans head to the polls on 23 February to elect a new parliament and decide the make-up of the next government. Until now, surveys have shown that voters care most about migration policy and the economy, but international security as well as the climate remained among the top five issues. In any case, they are among the biggest challenges to face the next government.
Next government must rethink foreign policy
While German and European reactions around the start of Trump’s new term emphasised transatlantic friendship, leaders are only slowly waking up to the new reality.
“It is a scandal how unprepared we are in Europe for what‘s happening,” wrote Jana Puglierin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, in a message on Bluesky. She argued that recent U.S. comments should not have come as a surprise.
Her colleague, Rafael Loss, said that Germany’s next government would have to rethink some of the assumptions that have long guided the country’s foreign policy, such as the role of multilateral institutions and of Germany inside the European Union, or the transatlantic relationship. “All these are in flux,” Loss told Clean Energy Wire.
A survey conducted by the think tank has shown that a majority of Europeans no longer see the U.S. as an ally with shared interests and values. This should come as no surprise, as Trump questions the very idea of liberal democracy, rejects the green transformation and announced on his first day in office to withdraw the country from the Paris Climate Agreement – again. Instead, most respondents see the U.S. as a necessary partner with which the union must strategically cooperate.
The continent’s political leadership in many cases has still not arrived at this conclusion, wrote Brussels-based journalist Dave Keating, citing weak responses by EU leaders to Trump’s threats in the first weeks of his presidency. “Europeans have ignored the signs of where the United States was headed for two decades, choosing to bury their heads in the sand rather than having to grow up and take adult decisions that would make Europe sovereign and free.” Keating added that Europe should accept that the United States is no longer an ally, but rather a strategic partner with similar risks and rewards like in the relationship to China – and could even become an enemy.
And Germany’s future leader? Polls consistently see the conservative opposition of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) as winners of the election by a wide margin. CDU head Friedrich Merz is likely to lead the next coalition as chancellor, and his comments on the U.S. have shifted from a charm offensive at the time of Trump’s inauguration to a stark warning four weeks later.
After Vance’s speech in Munich, Merz spoke of a “new quality” of disputes between the U.S. and Europe, and argued that it could lead to a “break in transatlantic relations.” Europe had to stand on its own two feet and “defend the political order of the European continent, how we have built it over the past 75 years together with the Americans,” he wrote in a newsletter. Merz has proposed to introduce a national security council in the chancellery and – if elected – wants to present a new national security strategy.
Germany must reset relations with EU partners, ensure national priorities serve broader European interest
Pressure on Germany is high. U.S. historian Timothy Snyder said 2025 must become the “year of European action,” and that Germany is currently the “biggest functioning democracy” in the world.
Researcher Loss emphasised the risk that Trump would try to play off EU member states against each other. “That was his strategy in the first term, and it is likely to remain so in the second term.”
Consequently, Merz has called for a joint European voice towards Trump, and told heads of government to coordinate this before visiting the U.S. “As soon as we have a common European position, we are seen as a strong partner in D.C.,” he told the audience at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos.
Loss said that the outgoing government had missed many opportunities to build stronger European relations over the past three years. Newspapers have been filled with articles about the difficulties between French president Emmanuel Macron and chancellor Scholz, and the differences in key policy areas, not least on energy.
“Regardless of who wins the election, the fact that it is taking place at this time offers German foreign policy the possibility of a reset in its relationships with major European partners,” Loss said. The government would first have to identify Germany’s actual interest and then how this could serve a broader European interest.
The next government will also have to rebuild trust at the EU level, as the disputes within the collapsed three-party coalition carried over into the union and shook up its policymaking process on several occasions. Germany first helped negotiate crucial agreements, only to change its position before the final green light was given – going against the usual process.
“Never before has a German government been criticised and despised in Brussels as much as this current government,” Merz commented in the last parliament session before the election.
The CDU has said it intends to put relations with partners like Poland, France and Italy on a new footing, but a reset could be difficult when German interests clash with those of other EU member states, especially at a time when the country’s economy is struggling.
Money, as usual, is set be an issue. Driven by the need to increase defence spending, EU countries are now discussing the possibility of exempting these expenditures from current debt rules, which limit countries’ budget deficits to ensure sound public finances. ‘Frugal’ Germany has traditionally pushed for stricter public spending rules and Merz’s CDU has been critical of changing the country’s own ‘debt brake’ – although the party leader himself has said he might support a careful reform.
Another field of conflicting interests could be support for the country’s famed car sector.
“In the automotive sector, the challenge is to be as European in the approach as possible,” said Simone Tagliapietra, senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. “Otherwise, we have the usual problem of ending up with a few countries, namely Germany, subsidising a few companies, namely the incumbents in the sector.” A national course of action would undermine the Single Market, which is not in the interest of Germany, Tagliapietra added. State aid has been a matter of EU dispute for some time, where poorer European countries criticise Germany and others for supporting their own businesses with millions of euros, leading to competitive disadvantages.
Germany may argue that the competitive disadvantages of Europe vis-à-vis China or the U.S. weigh much heavier. One element is higher prices for gas and electricity, which hit energy-intensive industry especially hard. To lower prices in a structured way, Europe has to advance the integration of its electricity market, Tagliapietra said. “The next German government, like all EU governments, must realise that deepening the Energy Union is in the interest of everyone.”
CDU-led government could put brakes on elements of European Green Deal
In its election manifesto, the CDU does come out in support of a “true European Energy Union,” but the party opposes key elements of the European Green Deal. The EU’s green growth strategy to become climate neutral by 2050 was introduced by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who also hails from the CDU. Parts of the strategy currently face pushback, also from the CDU’s conservative family at the EU level, the European People’s Party (EPP).
To address disadvantages compared to China and others, and to counter Trump’s “America First” agenda, the EU is working on a package of policies and measures to increase its competitiveness, for example through efforts to cut red tape for companies. This includes rules on corporate sustainability reporting, only recently introduced as part of the Green Deal. NGOs and activists worry that the planned deregulation could come at the expense of environmental protection.
Merz’s CDU is among those pushing for the planned deregulation, in addition to several other demands. In its election manifesto, the party calls for a reversal of the zero emission rule for new cars from 2035, as well as weakening car CO2 fleet limit rules to prevent fines for German carmakers.
Germany’s next government could thus be a driving force in weakening certain elements of the union’s transition agenda.
E3G’s Weissgerber said that overall, the conservatives “still follow a Green Deal approach,” but this now comes with efforts to redesign certain elements that in their view are too strict, went too far, or turned out to be too bureaucratic.
When the next German government enters office, it will almost immediately have to help agree major EU climate decisions, Weissgerber said. This includes the union’s greenhouse gas reduction target for 2040, as well as the target under UN rules for 2035 (the new NDC, or nationally determined contribution). The Commission will soon propose a legislative amendment to set a target to reduce emissions by 90 percent by 2040, and the reform will then be negotiated between member state governments and the European Parliament. It is unclear how the CDU will position itself.
“It would be seen as a very bad signal from Germany if the incoming government were to weaken climate ambition as one of its first actions,” Weissgerber said.
While Germany is unlikely to re-enter nuclear energy at the domestic level any time soon, a CDU-led government could have implications for the European level, he said.
“There is overall a more pro-nuclear stance in the CDU, which could have implications for EU policy. Until now, Germany has blocked France’s push for nuclear-centred policies to a certain extent. If the next government stops doing this, that could reflect in EU policies and research agendas.”
International climate finance under budget pressure
As the U.S. once more withdraws from the Paris agreement, there is a new gap to fill in international climate diplomacy – much like during the first Trump presidency.
“The Paris climate agreement without America will be a challenge,” said chancellor candidate Merz. “That will be extremely difficult to compensate for.” The damage last time was contained as U.S. governors, city mayors and business leaders had pledged continued implementation of climate action, and other parties to the Paris agreement stepped up their efforts.
Germany has been a strong voice in UN climate negotiations for decades, and the outgoing government placed an additional emphasis on climate diplomacy by putting the foreign office in charge, appointing a special envoy, and developing a climate foreign policy strategy.
However, funding climate finance in developing countries could receive less attention in the upcoming term. Scholz’s government had topped Germany’s 2025 target to provide six billion euros from its federal budget for international climate finance annually three years early. Last year, government representatives said that the budget crisis meant attaining the goal in the actual target year would become “very challenging.”
As Germany’s budget continues to be tight, and the CDU has made clear it prefers spending cuts over new debt, international support could be among the first areas to fall victim. The CDU’s election manifesto, notably, does not mention climate finance. “We support other countries on climate action,” it says. “We focus on technology and knowledge transfer with innovations ‘Made in Germany’.”
Still, a government under Merz looks set to continue to see climate as an important diplomatic issue.
“Climate issues are security issues and therefore climate policy must of course also be part of a security policy strategy,” he said. “It must be an integral part of our foreign policy.”
New LNG deals diplomacy with Trump?
Another major part of Germany’s security and foreign policy in the years since the start of the energy crisis has been the country’s gas supply.
Russia’s attempts to weaponise the country’s dependence on the cheap pipeline supply have pushed energy security back to the top of the agenda. The outgoing German government’s response to the energy crisis, including the efforts to wean the country off Russian supplies, was widely seen as a success. A crucial element of the response was the construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import infrastructure from scratch in record time.
These import terminals could come in handy when the next German government deals with Trump.
Three weeks after taking office, Trump announced he would substantially raise tariffs on steel and aluminium imports – something he did during his first term as well. In 2024, Germany was among the U.S.’s top-ten suppliers of steel products, and steel association WV Stahl said tariffs would hit Germany at an already difficult time, with existing overcapacities from China. Chancellor Scholz said the EU “can and will react swiftly,” including with counter tariffs if needed.
There is an alternative – or at least additional – tactic. As during Trump’s first term, governments in Europe and America could again try to smooth tensions over issues such as trade imbalances with promises of increased LNG imports – largely owing to Trump’s deal-making approach to international relations. The president has already made the offer and said he would “unleash American energy dominance,” also by lifting restrictions on new LNG export permits.
Governments may have limited options to influence what are essentially business decisions, but with the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2022, monthly U.S. LNG imports to the EU more than doubled, and have become a fixture in the union’s gas supply.
Chancellor Scholz has already welcomed the buildout of LNG export infrastructure in the U.S., as more supply would bring lower prices on world markets, and Merz encouraged EU countries to think about what they could offer “dealmaker” Trump. “Liquefied natural gas – why not,” Merz said in Davos.
Economy minister and chancellor candidate of the Green Party Robert Habeck – who at the height of the energy crisis travelled the world in search for new suppliers – has come out against the LNG deals diplomacy. “This would create geopolitical dependence in a world where we have to expect that dependency and relationships will be exploited,” Habeck warned.
The window of opportunity for new gas deals, meanwhile, is already closing – barring any new supply shocks, such as sabotage of key pipelines from Norway. Tight methane emission regulation could hinder imports from the U.S., and total gas consumption in the EU is projected to decline significantly in the mid and long-term as the union moves towards climate neutrality.
