Special Dispatch: Europe reacts to German snap election results

European Union

By Claire Stam, Brussels

The collapse of the traffic-light coalition means the so-called ‘German vote’ in EU proceedings is “going to be less likely,” said Linda Kalcher, executive director of the think tank Strategic Perspectives. Kalcher referred to the internal disputes that destabilised the three-party coalition and repeatedly disrupted the EU policymaking process. On several occasions, Germany played a key role in negotiating crucial agreements, only to reverse its position before giving final approval and then abstaining in the vote—an unusual and unsettling approach.

Kalcher also noted that conservative CDU leader and likely future German chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to take a more active role in European politics. "He has promised to invest in the Weimar Triangle [a trilateral policy coordination forum including Poland, France, and Germany] and focus on foreign policy, which is the right and necessary course given the current geopolitical and security situation," she said.

Merz's victory – along with the heavy defeat of the pro-business FDP – has raised hopes in Brussels that Germany may reform its debt brake, a move widely seen in the EU as a potential lever for unlocking much-needed investment, particularly in the decarbonisation of industry.

"Merz supports these proposals to some extent, but politically, it would be challenging because it would require a constitutional amendment, which needs a two-thirds majority in parliament," warned Ciarán Humphreys, research fellow on EU clean tech industrial policy at  Berlin-based think tank I4CE. As it stands, Merz has rejected the idea of a swift reform to the constitutionally enshrined limit on new government borrowing.

Yet, according to Politico, one thing is certain: "Merz will take Germany in a different direction from that of current chancellor Olaf Scholz. It may not even look like the Germany that Angela Merkel, also of the CDU, led for 16 years until 2021."

France

By Juliette Portalla, Paris

French newspaper La Croix comments that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will have to rely greatly on the help of Germany’s European partners: “He absolutely needs to deal with far more existential crises like the threats posed by Russia to European security and climate change.”

“Friedrich Merz is the last politician in post-war Germany for whom the EU is a conviction, not a constraint,” Joseph de Weck, Europe director for macroeconomic and geopolitical risk consulting at firm Greenmantle, told newspaper Le Monde.

Ronan Le Gleut from the FrenchSenate told Public Sénat that Merz is likely to be an ally to France. “Throughout his campaign, Friedrich Merz repeatedly said how much he reproached Olaf Scholz for not sufficiently working on Franco-German relations,” he said. To take advantage of the “opportunity,” Paul Maurice, secretary general of the Study Committee on Franco-German Relations, added that France must “act quickly” given the uncertainties in the French political landscape.

Joseph Dellatte, research fellow for climate, energy and environment at Institut Montaigne, notes that on the nuclear power front, France sees Merz “as a potential ally, or at least less like an enemy,” compared to the outgoing coalition government.

Cécile Maisonneuve, founder and president of consultancy firm DECYSIVE, also expects improved Franco-German relations when it comes to energy. To what extent remains to be seen, she said, as the members of the next coalition must find common ground on topics like nuclear power and the decarbonisation of industry. “What France can hope for, with Merz as chancellor, is that it will put an end to the anti-nuclear proselytism of the Germans in Brussels (…) and that there is no more systematic blocking from Germany to adopting legislation in Brussels on existing as well as on new nuclear power.”

Dellatte believes Merz may have to be open to incurring more debt to spend money on defence, which could be positive for climate action as well. “If you have common investments at the European level for defence, part of the money that is going to go to the defence industry could also go to decarbonising the industry,” he said.

Poland

By Alicja Ptak, Warsaw

Although Germany is Poland's main trade partner, and the countries share a border of nearly 500 kilometers, the election received limited attention in Poland.

After the election results were announced, prime minister Donald Tusk from the centre-right Civic Platform (PO) congratulated leader of the CDU and likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz on his party’s victory. Tusk noted that he understands "it is not an easy task… to beat the populists" – likely referring to Tusk’s predecessors from the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. Meanwhile, PiS politicians warned that Merz's pledge to "strengthen Europe ... [to] achieve independence from the USA" threatens Poland's sovereignty and security.

Polish media highlighted, among other issues, the strong performance of the radical far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the fringe Left Party (Die Linke), both of which oppose military aid for Ukraine. This stance is widely seen in Poland as a direct threat to the country's security.

Despite limited coverage, the outcome of the German election carries significant implications for Poland. Dr Agnieszka Łada-Konefał, deputy director of the German-Polish Institute, highlighted Merz's plans "to save the German economy" and his commitment to strengthening the Weimar Triangle – a cooperation platform between Germany, France and Poland – as positive for Warsaw. However, Merz's stance on migration and his calls for border controls and the deportation of illegal migrants could disrupt cross-border movement and strain Polish-German relations. The AfD, which received one in five votes, remains a troubling factor for Poland. The party is "openly pro-Russian, falsifies history, including Polish-German history, and is so radical when it comes to migrants," Łada-Konefał told CLEW.

Dr Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera, president of the think tank Forum Energii, said she expects continuity on the topic of energy, meaning Poland should not brace itself for radical changes; the development of renewable energy will remain a priority. "We hope that the new government will think more about Europe as a whole and not only about its own, sometimes particularistic interests, which are quite provocative for other countries – especially its closest neighbours," she told CLEW.

Croatia

By Katarina Gulan, Zagreb

Croatian media extensively covered Germany’s snap election, but reactions from political leaders were limited. Prime minister Andrej Plenković congratulated Friedrich Merz – and his Bavarian counterpart Markus Söder – on social media site X, referring to the "convincing victory of the CDU/CSU" and expressing hopes for the swift formation of a new German government.

Other observers, however, disagreed that the victory was convincing. Zoran Kurelić, political scientist at the University of Zagreb, noted that the CDU/CSU’s share of the vote, at less than 30 percent, is the second weakest in the party’s history, while the SPD had its worst performance ever. He described the coalition as a “loser and half-loser” alliance and questions Merz’s ability to unite Europe.

Deutsche Welle’s correspondent for Croatia, Srećko Matić, warned of the erosion of the political centre and the rise of radical factions, which make it more difficult to form a stable coalition.

Nikola Biliškov, researcher at the Ruđer Bošković Institute, predicts intensified attacks on the Green Deal, with the aim of weakening or neutralising it. "A good indicator of these trends was the debate on the Nature Restoration Law, which the conservative right exploited – by spreading misinformation – to channel farmers' concerns into opposition to green policies. The global geopolitical situation is extremely unfavorable for a systematic response to the climate crisis. The Greens failed to navigate this situation, leading to a decline in public support," said Biliškov. She warned that the climate movement is losing momentum while the fossil fuel lobby strengthens its position.

Italy

By Ferdinando Cotugno, Milan

The most common reaction to the election by commentators from Italy is arguing that Germany as we knew it no longer exists.

Political commentator Aldo Cazzullo wrote in Corriere della Sera that “We told ourselves that the vote in Germany would be a shock – and here we are. Since Europe's leading economic power reunified, we haven’t yet experienced a Germany that shifted so much to the right.” The question on everyone's mind is how Europe will change with this new Germany. “Merz is not Merkel. Common European debt will remain an exception. On migrants, he will hold a hard line. Maybe he will not abandon Ukraine, but he certainly will not encourage European construction, and the AfD will grow like Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia did.”

Stefano Bonaccini, president of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), is less pessimistic about the future of Europe. After the elections, he told newspaper Repubblica, “There is no alternative to a pro-European German government.” After the Scholz government, he said the lesson for the European left was that “without growth, inequality increases. It is a warning to those who still talk about degrowth. It is possible to combine economic growth and workers’ rights. The AfD's strength is a wake-up call for Europe: not all their voters are neo-Nazis, their success is a side-effect of social disorientation and recession.”

The Italian right, on the other hand, has emerged galvanized from these elections, according to Edmondo Cirielli, deputy foreign minister from premier Meloni's party. “The elections are a historic turning point, the German far-right is no longer far-right. It is a mainstream party now. The AfD can no longer be ignored. As Fratelli d'Italia, we are halfway between them and the CDU. We were also portrayed as anti-system, but when we formed our government we showed responsibility.”

Annalisa Corrado, member of the European Parliament for the Democratic Party, is responsible for the energy transition and climate action at the EU level. “If indeed the German Conservatives and Social Democrats were to succeed in making a new government together in Germany, it would finally lower the level of hostility in the European Parliament, which has created a major obstacle to building alliances in recent months,” she said.

According to Corrado, the effect on the Green Deal may not be negative: “The Conservatives have tried several times to stay in the middle, building alternative majorities with the left or the right depending on the circumstances. Merz has found out that allying with the far-right does not do any good, so I hope that serves as a warning. Lowering tensions within the majority is crucial now, as important dossiers are on the table.”