Heating and transport are still laggard sectors in Germany's energy transition – report

Germany’s outgoing coalition government has seen much success in expanding renewable energy but failed to make significant progress in other areas of the energy transition, especially in terms of interconnecting energy-consuming sectors (sector coupling) and acclerating the phase-out of coal and gas, according to a report by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) first reported on by Tagesspiegel Background.

The DIW assessed the progress of expanding various key technologies for climate protection since 2021, when the current government took office, and offered recommendations for the next government following the federal elections on 23 February. The area where most progress was achieved is solar power, which has seen installed capacity increase 60 percent to 99 gigawatts (GW) since 2021, the DIW found. By contrast, onshore wind increased 14 percent to 64 GW in the same period, remaining below official goals.

The report noted changes in the law made by chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government that would result in more land allocations and permits in the coming years. "The next government should not interrupt this positive dynamic, but rather continue to promote it," the DIW advised.

Advances in the heating sector have been less promising, according to the report. The increase in heat pump sales has been too slow to reach the government’s target of 6 million units by 2030 and too many gas and oil heating systems continue to be installed, it found. The next federal government must "end communication uncertainty by clearly explaining the need for and advantages of heat pumps," the DIW stressed, calling for the Building Energy Act to be upheld by the next administration.

Germany has also fallen behind in electric mobility: With 1.7 million electric vehicles registered, the government’s original target of 15 million electric cars by 2030 increasingly looks out of reach. On hydrogen, the planned ramp-up reached only one percent of the government’s 2030 target of 10 GW of electrolysis capacity. The DIW called for electrolyser tenders and other measures to improve conditions for greater development of hydrogen projects.