Dispatch from the European Union | November '24

The target will be the stepping stone between the EU’s 2030 target to reduce net emissions by 55 percent and its 2050 net-zero emissions goal. The European Commission is sticking to its guns and suggesting a 90 percent net reduction, but this still needs to be approved by EU countries and the European Parliament, meaning the EU is going to COP29 without much to show in terms of a concrete increase in ambition since COP28, particularly regarding a new nationally determined contribution and emissions reduction target.

Internally, EU energy and environment laws are also on shaky ground. A significant number of green laws have been agreed in the past five years, but these now need to be implemented. Some, like the much-debated phase-out of new combustion engine cars and a law to rid EU supply chains of deforestation, are already facing pushback.

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• COP29. The summit will take place from 11 to 22 November in Azerbaijan. While many see it as a stepping stone between COP28 and COP30, others point to its important role as the last COP before countries turn in their new nationally determined contributions and a key forum for agreeing on a new climate finance goal (NCQG). On 14 October, EU countries signed off on their negotiating position, including hopes for an “achievable and fit for purpose” finance goal, and calls to increase mitigation efforts and transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. They also gave a nod to nuclear energy, a significant shift in the EU’s approach. It comes as the International Renewable Energy Agency warns that the world risks falling short of the goals set at COP28. Meanwhile, the European Parliament has criticised host country Azerbaijan’s human rights record.
• Top job approvals. The European Parliament will grill candidates for top European Commission jobs between 4 and 12 November. This is where Parliament can flex its muscles and reject candidates as well as push for more details on the Commission’s plans. Key hearings to watch are those of Dan Jørgensen, candidate for energy and housing commissioner; Wopke Hoekstra (climate, net zero and clean growth); Jessika Roswall (environment and competitive circular economy); and Teresa Ribera, whose job will be to oversee their work. Candidates have already answered written questions and their answers have been analysed by Politico.
• Potential delay for anti-deforestation law. The European Union’s landmark anti-deforestation law could come into effect a year late, following concerns it is not up to the task. The law aims to reduce the EU’s role in global deforestation in sectors including palm oil, cattle, soy, coffee, cocoa, timber, rubber and related products. It was scheduled to come into effect at the end of 2024 but the European Commission has proposed a year-long delay,  and issued guidance for its implementation. EU countries have already approved this and the European Parliament will vote on it on 14 November. While it was heralded by environmental organisations and some politicians, several countries called it protectionist and companies warned it could push up prices.

The latest from EU policy making – last month in recap

• COP16. Countries are finishing up the international biodiversity summit, COP16, in Colombia. Ahead of this, EU countries reiterated their commitment to implementing the Global Biodiversity Framework agreed in 2022 – aiming to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, and protect a third of the planet’s nature by 2030 – and to support the financial mechanism created to help achieve this target. At the summit, the EU announced several funds worth almost €160 million.  That includes money to combat wildlife trafficking, sustainably manage biodiversity in the high seas, and increase knowledge in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. It will also step up efforts to leverage private capital. Read the EU’s full position here and a summary of the meeting by Vox here.
• Phase-out of new combustion engine cars. The tug of war over rules to phase out sales of new combustion engine cars by 2035 continues. The European Commission is standing by it and has support from certain industry groups, like The European Association for Electromobility. However, car makers like BMW and industry groups want it changed and EU countries like Italy and the Czech Republic are trying to rally support against it.
• Countries propose energy and climate goals. Greece has set a more ambitious renewable energy target for 2030 in its new national energy and climate plan (NECP). All EU countries need to turn these in to the Commission to prove they are on track to meet the bloc’s goals. Greece will target an 82 percent share of renewables in its electricity generation by the end of the decade, up from 66 percent in its previous plan. That would be a big increase in the country’s renewable energy capacity – in 2023, wind and solar made up just over 41 percent of its electricity production. Meanwhile, the Commission told Austria to step up its planned emissions reductions and energy efficiency measures.
• Energy prices still on the agenda. EU energy ministers flagged concerns about energy prices at their meeting on 15 October, citing price spikes in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe. They discussed potential solutions, including increasing cross-border transmission capacity, investing in interconnection and enhancing cooperation. Meanwhile, energy ministers from North Sea countries have asked the European Commission to do more to support offshore wind, including ensuring criteria for tendering projects are uniform and financing rules for cross-border infrastructure are clear. In November, EU leaders will also discuss competitiveness and a unified energy market, which would mean better coordination, more energy flowing between countries and fewer price differences.

Kira’s picks - Highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• Essential reads
  • The Financial Times’ Alice Hancock has a great summary of the ongoing battle over the 2035 ban on the sale of new combustion engine cars.
  • The intricacies of a neglected proposal to address differences in gas and electricity prices are explained in this article by Politico’s Gabriel Gavin and Federica Di Sario about Greta Thunberg’s arrest while protesting fossil fuel subsidies.
  • Politico journalists Lucia Mackenzie and Gabriel Gavin break down how Europe’s energy market has changed since Russia invaded Ukraine.
  • Don’t miss FORESIGHT Climate & Energy’s deep dive podcast Watt Matters, which I’m co-hosting with FORESIGHT’s editor-in-chief David Weston and energy expert Jan Rosenow. For our first series, we’re gearing up for COP29 by looking at the energy mix of 2030 and what is needed to get there.
• Events: European Hydrogen Week will take place from 18 to 21 November. The event will include an exhibition and panel discussions on hydrogen’s role in the energy transition. It is a collaboration between industry group Hydrogen Europe, Hydrogen Europe Research, the European Commission and the Clean Hydrogen Partnership.