Dispatch from the European Union | July '24

In cooperation with Carbon Pulse.

Among those searching for an alliance are the European Greens who, compared to the unparalleled success they achieved in the 2019 elections, suffered an especially resounding defeat. Sustained by  broad popular support only five years ago, their heyday prompted the European Green Deal and the Climate Law, carving in stone the EU’s objective of reaching climate neutrality by 2050 and cutting emissions to 55 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.

By contrast, the 2024 election saw the Greens recede. Their results were poor, in particular in France and Germany, where they did exceptionally well in 2019. "It wasn't a climate vote and wasn't expected to be a climate vote during a war, a rise in the cost of living, and an energy crisis for citizens," Linda Kalcher, executive director of the Strategic Perspectives think tank, commented after the vote. "That's okay, now it's about economic solutions, and green business that brings jobs, cuts fossil fuel use and [ensures] more energy security," she added. 

According to Kalcher and other climate policy experts, the Green Deal may still be one of the few topics on which a large majority of the elected MEPs will be able to agree, although for different reasons. If that was going to happen, it would likely be a result of pragmatism - which is not necessarily a bad thing.

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

• Reshuffle. The political shift in the election has seen the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by Ursula von der Leyen, who has been nominated for a second five-year term as president of the European Commission, strengthen its position as the largest group in the European Parliament. On election night, von der Leyen said “I want to build a broad majority for a strong Europe. I have demonstrated in my first mandate what a strong Europe can achieve,” calling on other political group leaders to take “the responsibility to initiate all the necessary steps to build this majority.” In Parliament, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) remain the second largest group. The centrist Renew group of French president Emmanuel Macron suffered a defeat, while the right-wing nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), headed by Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni, increased their seats. Amid the ensuing political turmoil, MEPs originally hailing from the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group split into two brand new groups: Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN) and Patriots for Europe. Counting 84 members each at the time of writing, the latter already surpassed ECR and Renew.

• French politics. Patriots for Europe picked French politician Jordan Bardella as their leader only days after his National Rally (RN) party lost against the left-wing New Popular Front – which unites the Socialists, the Greens, the communists and far-left groupings – in the second round of France’s snap election. What a French coalition will look like is still unknown, and the threat of an unprecedented hung parliament continues to loom. President Macron, who called the snap election the very same night of his debacle at the EU level, won 168 seats this time with his centrist alliance, significantly more than the RN's 143. Macron is now looking at ways to form a government with parties that have so far vigorously opposed him.

• The future of climate policies. Guess what may come in handy? The Green Deal! Just with a new name: let’s call it an 'Industrial Green Deal'. The idea gained momentum in February, when more than 60 chief executives of European heavy industries met at a chemical plant in Belgium to issue the so-called 'Antwerp declaration'. Commission leader von der Leyen also attended the event, proving the EU executive’s intent to develop policies for "an industrial decarbonisation deal," as laid out in the Commission's 2040 climate target recommendation. Also, despite its undeniable gains, the far-right has not come to dominate the European Parliament. So, those who oppose the green transition may end up finding this task more difficult than expected. The EPP has made a point in the past months of defending the EU's industrial competitiveness, something the green transition can help with, especially considering that the U.S. and China are investing more in sustainable technologies and thereby pushing the EU to follow suit.

• New EU Parliament’s inaugural session. On 16-19 July, the newly elected members of the European Parliament will hold their first plenary session in Strasbourg. While MEPs are expected to vote on the nomination of von der Leyen for a second term as European Commission president on Thursday, the outcome cannot be taken for granted. Von der Leyen's EPP will need to forge a broad alliance in order to secure majority support. Ideally, at least from a climate perspective, the EPP will bring the Greens on board to form a coalition – in addition to the S&D and Renew Europe groups.

• Informal meetings. The EU member states’ environment and energy ministers will be meeting informally a couple of times in Budapest, under the Hungarian presidency of the Council of the EU. Following a first meeting on 11-12 July, where the participants assessed the preparations for the UN climate summit COP29 (scheduled for November), a new session on 15-16 July will be dedicated to the decarbonisation of the Union’s energy system.

• What does ‘renewable’ mean? An upcoming European Commission guidance document designed to help the 27 EU member states interpret the legal definition of 'waste heat' is likely to create conflicts when released later this month, as the waste incineration sector has recently entered the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The EU's Renewable Energy Directive (RED), revised last year, raised the targeted share of EU consumption of renewable energy to 42.5 percent by 2030, with an additional 2.5 percent which the “member states should strive to achieve,” allowing the bloc to reach 45 percent. A Commission official told Carbon Pulse that the executive is currently working on a set of guidance documents to accompany the revised directive. The aim is "to complete this work and publish it by the end of July."

• Heat waves. According to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), June marked the completion of one year of the average global temperature being 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the high-ambition target set by the Paris Agreement. The average global temperature for the previous 12 months was the highest on record, at 0.76 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above the 1850-1900 average. In Europe, temperatures were most clearly above the average in southeastern regions and in Turkey, but near or below the average in western Europe, Iceland and northwestern Russia. Outside of Europe, temperatures were most clearly above the average in eastern Canada, the western U.S. and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa and western Antarctica.

The latest from the EU – last month in recap

• Green light to nature. On 17 June, EU environment ministers agreed to pass a regulation that aims to restore natural habitats, ending a year-long legislative back-and-forth in what campaigners hailed as an "historic step" in the fight against the biodiversity and climate crises. The EU's Nature Restoration Law (NRL) was supported by most of the 27 member states, with the exception of Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden. The text, already agreed with the European Parliament, will oblige EU member states to restore at least 30 percent of habitat types covered in the bill by 2030, prioritising protected sites under the existing Natura 2000 network. A merit badge from an environmentalist’s perspective goes to Austrian minister Leonore Gewessler, who took her country on the supporters' side after it previously opposed the law. She did so in open contrast with the chancellor, Karl Nehammer, arguing he couldn't legally speak for Austria when he refused to back the regulation. Louise Guillot in Politico defined Gewessler as “rogue,” like all heroines should be.

• Missed deadlines. On a less happy note, the majority of EU member countries ran out of time to submit their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). The European Commission had criticised the draft versions of NECPs for lacking details or being insufficient to reach the bloc's 2030 climate target, which is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. Member states then had until June 30 to come up with a revised version of their contributions. These plans are supposed to be an intermediate step towards reaching the EU’s agreed climate neutrality target for 2050. NECPs also represent an answer to citizens' concerns over climate at a time when freshly elected lawmakers are taking their seats in the European Parliament. Many may submit a plan during the summer, while latecomers like France and Portugal may take as many as six more months.

Emanuela's picks – Highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• Far-right gains in European elections: what they mean for climate goals by researcher Carissa Wong. Wong acknowledges that the EU political shift to the right will likely make it harder to bring in new climate-friendly policies, but what is done is done and the commitment expressed in the Climate Law should remain.
• European Green Deal: to continue or end? (in French) by the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris. Author Phuc-Vinh Nguyen explains that “legally speaking, the European Commission holds the discretionary power of initiative to reopen a file, and the European Parliament has no legal means of compelling it to do so” but, in the absence of an enlarged grand coalition, the unravelling of the Green Deal "could then become even more likely.
• Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie. Written by a data scientist, this is a book “for anyone who finds it difficult to believe in a better future,” according to The Times. I loved the pragmatic and crystal clear way Ritchie went through the typical topics we all have argued about at some point, offering optimistic quotes to recite over your next family dinner.
• Food unfolded is a newsletter on sustainability behind and beyond what we eat, with a focus on the people who make it all happen. They also have a gorgeous Instagram account, which may attract those addicted to scrolling.