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23 Feb 2025, 21:00
CLEW Team
|
Germany

Vote25: Tracking the making of Germany's new government

Germans cast their vote in the country's federal election on 23 February. Conservative CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz is set to become the next chancellor and will now lead the coalition negotiations – most likely with the Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) saw its greatest election success to date, but the CDU/CSU has ruled out forming a government with them. Coalition negotiations can last anywhere from a handful of weeks to a couple of months.
This tracking piece follows the coalition talks from ballot closure to the establishment of a new government.

24 February

BSW considers legal review of election results

The left-wing and anti-immigration Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is considering having the result of Germany's federal election legally reviewed, public broadcaster ARD reported. The claim is based on the fact that many registered German voters living abroad complained they could not cast their votes due to the short snap election deadlines.

Around 230,000 German voters are registered outside of the country, and the BSW fell around 13,400 votes short of clearing the five percent threshold to enter parliament, ARD reported. "The question of the legal validity of the election result arises," party leader Sahra Wagenknecht said.

CDU to lead coalition negotiations, majority possible with SPD

The conservative CDU/CSU alliance has won the most votes in Germany's snap election on 23 February – but it was one of the party's worst election results in history. The party under its chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz received 28.5 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results carried by public broadcaster ARD.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) followed with 20.8 percent – doubling its support compared to the previous election. In third place, Olaf Scholz's SPD suffered major losses, scoring 16.4 percent. They were followed by the Green Party (11.6%) and the Left Party (8.75%).

Uncertainty abounded when polling agencies published their first projections, as it was unclear whether the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the left-wing anti-immigrant and pro-Russia Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would clear the five percent threshold to make it into parliament. This, in turn, would have had a huge impact on whether a two-party coalition was possible, or whether a three-party coalition was necessary to achieve a parliamentary majority.

In the end, neither party cleared the threshold (4.9% for the BSW and 4.3% for the FDP), meaning that the CDU/CSU can secure a majority government by forming a coalition with the SPD without having to rely on other parties.

Coalition negotiations can take weeks or even months. Germany is unlikely to have a new government before late spring 2025, but CDU leader Merz signalled he aims for a speedy conclusion of coalition negotiations.

Preliminary results for Germany's 2025 federal election.
Graph: CLEW.
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