Europe to require relatively low volumes of hydrogen imports – researchers

The projected demand for green hydrogen in Europe can largely be covered by domestic production, said researchers from Germany’s Fraunhofer Cluster of Excellence Integrated Energy Systems (CINES). They analysed low (700 terawatt hours (TWh) by 2050), medium and high-demand (2,800 TWh) scenarios for the continent for 2050 and said that even in their highest demand scenario, only ten percent would have to be imported, for example from northern Africa.

Green hydrogen produced in Europe would remain competitive with imports if the energy system is built out in the right way, said researcher Tobias Fleiter. “The additional costs for transport from North Africa and the Middle East compensate for the low production costs there,” he said. In all scenarios, the electrolysers needed to produce the fuel would initially be built along the wind energy locations with favourable electricity generation costs, above all on the coasts of the UK, Norway, north-west Germany and France. In the longer term, sunny locations in southern Europe will be added, particularly on the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkans and in Italy.

The analysis also said Europe will have to set up a sizeable infrastructure for hydrogen production, transport and storage in any case. “Even with the lowest expected hydrogen demand, all essential elements of this infrastructure, i.e. electrolysers, transport corridors and storage facilities, are required on a large scale,” said Fraunhofer CINES.

In the fight against climate change, hydrogen made with renewable electricity is seen as essential for the decarbonisation of sectors with particularly stubborn emissions, such as heavy industry and aviation. The researchers’ low-level scenario for hydrogen demand in Europe in 2050 is 700 TWh, which includes the hydrogen consumption expected for industrial process heat, power plants, district heating and intra-European air traffic, which are otherwise difficult to electrify.

Many experts doubt that green hydrogen will play the large role many industry representatives and governments aim for. This is due to factors like costs, availability of other alternatives and restraints connected to the fuel’s physical properties, such as its comparatively low volume energy density.

Germany has set out to become a global leader in the associated hydrogen technologies, and the government has penned a National Hydrogen Strategy to achieve these ambitions. The government said the country will largely have to import the fuel in future due to unfavourable local conditions for renewable electricity production. It is setting up a core hydrogen grid from old gas pipelines and new infrastructure with the goal of the fuel starting to flow by next year.