Chancellor’s SPD narrowly defeats far-right in regional German election

German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has narrowly defeated the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to emerge as the strongest party in the regional election of eastern state Brandenburg. Only four parties will be represented in the state parliament due to a 5-percent threshold. The SPD won 30.9 percent of the vote, followed by the AfD with 29.2 percent. The Christian Democrats (CDU) fell to 12.1 percent and finished behind the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which achieved 13.5 percent. Two parties of Germany’s federal three-way coalition government failed to enter parliament: the Green Party (4.1%) and the Free Democrats (FDP) at less than 1 percent.

The state now faces difficult coalition government negotiations as policies of the SPD’s possible partners – the nationalist-left BSW and the conservative CDU – differ substantially, reported public broadcaster rbb. Until now, the SPD governed together with the CDU and the Green Party. The AfD is extremely unlikely to play any part in coalition talks as all other parties have rejected the idea of a partnership.

Voters in Brandenburg had named social security, economic development, and migration as their most important issues for their decision, rather than climate and energy policy. The SPD, BSW and CDU have come out against bringing the coal exit forward from the current legal 2038 phase-out date. With Lusatia, Brandenburg is home to one of the country's remaining coal mining regions, and policymakers there have resisted a push by the federal government to bring the coal exit forward to 2030.

The regional SPD has advocated for renewables expansion and said this is a “big opportunity” and a “decisive advantage” for the state as a business location. BSW said it supports climate policy through “engineering innovations”. The party opposes national CO2 pricing, an end date for the sale of combustion engine cars, and a uniform speed limit on motorways – topics which are, or would be, decided at the national or EU level. The CDU has called for carbon capture and storage or utilisation (CCS/CCU) support and wants to develop a regional strategy. Brandenburg aims for climate neutrality by 2045, the same year as for Germany as a whole, and both the SPD and CDU said they support this target in the state.

While most Germans share the view that the energy transition and climate action are essential, voters in the East tend to lend more support to parties that reject current energy and climate policies – despite policymakers claiming the region will benefit disproportionately from them. The  AfD already scored big in two other regional elections in eastern Thuringia and Saxony earlier this month.