Trump win triggers calls for focus on European autonomy and competitiveness
The results of the U.S. election forces Germany and Europe to refocus their efforts to become more self-reliant, strengthen their competitiveness, and push forward international climate action, said German politicians, businesses, and NGOs in first reactions. The triumph of Donald Trump also triggered calls for unity in society and government.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the EU must now "stand together and act as one." All European countries had taken on more responsibility in recent years, “for the security of our continent, for supporting Ukraine, for Europe's independence in economic and energy matters,” said the chancellor. After an election outcome in the U.S. that was feared in many European capitals, he called for continued close transatlantic cooperation also under a re-elected Republican president Trump, from which both sides would profit. “We are better off together,” the chancellor said.
With a view to the divisive election campaign in the U.S., Scholz said that he wished for German society to remain united, despite differing political views.
In recent weeks, the German coalition government itself showed clear disunity and moved closer to breaking point. Amid simmering tensions over Germany’s 2025 budget and general disagreement over economic, financial and climate policy, the country is facing a stagnating economy and difficult industry outlook. A snap election well ahead of the next scheduled elections in autumn next year could be in the cards if Scholz's Social Democrats (SPD), the Green Party and the Free Democrats (FDP) fail to find compromise. Government members and political observers have warned that Germany must avoid a high-stakes gamble among the coalition parties at a time when a change of government in the U.S. towards Trump could throw global geopolitics into upheaval.
Economists predicted that Germany’s already frail economy is set to take another hit, given its export dependence. Germany greatly relies on open international markets for its products, and Trump’s plans to introduce sweeping tariffs for Germany's most important export market outside the EU pose a major challenge to its business model.
Michael Hüther, head of the German Economic Institute (IW), said that German companies "can already prepare themselves for an expensive trade war." He called on the coalition government to stop being preoccupied with only itself. "In the coming years, Germany must learn more than ever to stand on its own two feet - in geopolitics as well as in economic policy.”
Germany's most important industry association called the U.S. election results “a wake-up call for Germany and Europe,” which now had to strengthen their own competitiveness and defence capabilities faster. The lobby group warned of an “epochal change” in transatlantic relations in which “the tone will become harsher".
NGO Germanwatch's policy director Christoph Bals warned that Trump would likely pull his country out of the Paris Climate Agreement, and had the power to "slow down and impede" the transition to a climate-friendly global economy. "It is all the more important that the international community proves at the upcoming [UN] climate summit in Baku and at the G20 summit in Rio that it is capable of acting on climate protection without the U.S. government if necessary," Bals said. He called on the German government to "take the initiative to form a broad coalition of countries that will reaffirm their support for the Paris Climate Agreement and its goals in the coming days."
More reactions from Germany
Politicians
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD):
"Germany and the USA have been working together successfully for a long time to promote prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic. We will continue to do so for the benefit of our citizens."
Economy and climate minister Robert Habeck (Greens):
"Everyone should realise that we benefit more when we work together and that we lose when we act separately. It was clear even before the election result that Europe will have more responsibility in the world - especially in terms of security policy. Europe must stand together and act as a strong player in global politics. Germany must be a reliable and capable partner in Europe and put itself at the service of Europe. Everything we do, we should do as Europeans. This also applies in particular to our resolute support for Ukraine. Its freedom is also crucial for security and peace in Germany and Europe. Now is the time for state responsibility. In this situation, Germany must be fully capable of acting."
Finance minister Christian Lindner (FDP):
"In the EU, NATO and also in Berlin, we must now do our economic and security policy homework more urgently than ever."
Business
Federation of German Industries (BDI):
Industry association BDI said that the clear result of the US vote is “a wake-up call for Germany and Europe,” which now had to strengthen their own competitiveness and defence capabilities faster. BDI president Siegfried Russwurm warned of an “epochal change” in transatlantic relations in which “the tone will become harsher and the protectionist course will be consistently pursued.” He said that the U.S. was Germany's most important trading partner in the first half of 2024. For the ninth year in a row, it is the largest buyer of German products, with pharmaceuticals, machinery and cars at the top of the list. Russwurm added that Trump's plans for numerous new tariffs announced during the election campaign worried German industry, and the EU had to show openness towards compromises with the incoming US government to avert reciprocal tariffs. “There is great potential for deeper cooperation, for example on regulatory issues and technical standards or the resilience of supply chains,” said Russwurm.
Economists
Achim Wambach, head of the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW):
“The acceptance of climate policy in Europe is under threat if it becomes apparent that Europe's own efforts will be accompanied by job losses. Especially if the US economy continues to grow strongly at the same time and emissions there do not fall or fall only slightly. The EU and Germany must ensure that their climate efforts are carried out as efficiently and favourably as possible, stimulate green growth and avoid social upheaval in the process.”
Claudia Kemfert, energy economist at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW):
“Trump is a disaster for international climate policy. Trump would withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, as he did in 2019. This time, he could also withdraw from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), meaning that the USA would not participate in global climate negotiations for an indefinite period of time and would no longer be an important donor to the UNFCCC [...] A complete reversal of the IRA's green economy subsidies is rather unlikely, although Trump has a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, but many Republican states benefit from the IRA.”
Moritz Schularick, head of the Kiel Institute für the World Economy (IfW):
“The foreseeable election victory of Donald Trump marks the beginning of the most difficult economic moment in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, because in addition to the internal structural crisis, we are now facing massive foreign trade and security policy challenges for which we are not prepared […] The democratic parties in Germany should come together and exempt defence investments from the debt brake so that Germany and Europe can act geopolitically.”
Michael Hüther, head of the German Economic Institute (IW):
“With the election of Donald Trump, the German economy is facing the next crisis in a period characterised by setbacks. Companies can already prepare themselves for an expensive trade war [...] One might hope that the federal government really has prepared itself better for this election result than it did in 2016. In any case, there is no more time for the traffic light coalition to continue being preoccupied with only itself. In the coming years, Germany must learn more than ever to stand on its own two feet - in geopolitics as well as in economic policy.”
NGOs
Sascha Müller-Kraenner, executive director Environmental Action Germany (DUH):
“Now we in Germany and Europe need to draw the right conclusions – quickly. For me, this means massive investment in our security and economy, accelerating the transformation towards climate neutrality and energy independence. We should also not be dependent on US fracked gas in the future. The order of the day is a resilient, sovereign Europe.”
