Special Dispatch Europe | Preview 2025
The new European Commission is set to use its first 100 days in office (until mid-March) to work out proposals to bolster industry, ensure the union is competitive vis-à-vis other parts of the world, and help transform its agriculture and food sectors. It must also make a legislative proposal for a 2040 greenhouse gas reduction target soon, so that the EU can use it to update its climate plan under the Paris Agreement before the next UN climate change conference COP30 in Brazil.
The appetite for ambitious climate policy - sometimes demanding significant efforts from citizens - has diminished across the union, as right-wing populist parties opposing strong action are gaining support in many countries. Already, some member state governments and political factions in the European Parliament push for weakening key Green Deal policies like the 2035 combustion engine ban, car fleet emissions limits, or the new emissions trading system for transport and buildings (EU ETS II).
Elections in major countries like Germany and Poland, as well as existing government turmoil in France, make ambitious climate decisions less likely and threaten significant progress in the transition.
Clean Energy Wire’s authors in Warsaw, Paris, Brussels, Zagreb and Milan, as well as those in the CLEW newsroom in Berlin, weigh in on what they expect to be the stories to watch in 2025.
EU faces intense debates about competitiveness, energy prices and 2040 climate target
by Claire Stam, Brussels
Since the Draghi report, the word ‘competitiveness’ has been on everyone's lips in the European bubble. Applied to the European energy sector, this means reducing energy prices, which are “two to three times higher than in the United States and China,” Neil Makaroff, director of think tank Strategic Perspectives, told Clean Energy Wire. This will be one of the main challenges facing the new energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen – and one of the main issues to be monitored at the start of his term of office. Bringing down energy prices – together with boosting innovation, reducing dependencies and decarbonising – is to play a key role in the Clean Industrial Deal, which the Commission is set to present on 26 February 2025.
The parallel issue is that of energy security and hence energy independence from Russia. Together with energy prices, these two issues will also be on the political agenda of Poland, which is preparing to take over the presidency of the EU Council on 1 January. Ambassador Agnieszka Bartol, head of Poland's permanent representation to the EU, expects “very enhanced discussions on these two points,” she said at a press briefing in Brussels.
Bartol took the opportunity to dispel what she described as a myth in the European bubble, namely that Poland is climate sceptic. “This is not true, and we are not calling into question the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050,” she told journalists. Asked about the EU’s plans to introduce a climate target for 2040, Bartol said the Polish EU Council presidency would work on it when the time comes. “We are dependent on the Commission proposal, it hasn’t arrived yet and we don’t know when it will come,” she said. The previous European Commission had recommended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent by 2040, but left it to the new team to prepare the actual legislative proposal, which must then be agreed with the European Parliament and member state governments.
In this context, renewable energies will play a key role. In fact, Jørgensen had already announced at his confirmation hearing in parliament that the Commission would be making legislative proposals on renewable energies for the post-2030 period, in particular setting a renewable energy target for 2040.
Croatia to grapple with nuclear energy legacy as waste comes into focus
by Marina Kelava, Zagreb
Nuclear energy could become a major topic in Croatia in 2025, even though the country does not have its own domestic plant. The Krško nuclear power plant, situated in neighbouring Slovenia, is jointly owned by Croatia and Slovenia.
Nuclear waste has been piling up and Croatia has an obligation to receive half of it. The procedure for obtaining a location permit is underway for the nuclear waste storage facility to be built in Čerkezovac, in Dvor municipality. In 2025, the environmental impact study will be put up for public discussion both in Croatia and in Bosnia and Herzegovina, since the location is on the border. The local population in Croatia as well as that across the border are not reconciled with having nuclear waste in their vicinity.
In addition, the Croatian government this year said it supported Slovenia’s plans to build a new unit of the Krško plant – a very expensive undertaking. If the Slovenian authorities proceed with the idea, possible Croatian involvement and financing will be the story to follow in 2025.
Government turmoil continues in France as energy transition progress needed
by Camille Lafrance, Paris
A period of rare political and budgetary uncertainty has dawned for France. The motion of no-confidence on 4 December, which toppled Michel Barnier's government, made passing the 2025 budget before the end of the year impossible. A little more than one week later, president Emmanuel Macron named centrist politician François Bayrou as the country's new prime minister to help resolve the political crisis. To avert an acute financial crisis, a special law is being considered to allow the country to operate for a few months without a budget.
Next year, France will finalise its roadmap for the climate transition, most notably the recently published draft third Multiannual Energy Plan (PPE), which sets out priorities for energy policy up to 2035. It is focused on reducing energy consumption and on accelerating the production of low-carbon energy (development of renewable energies and revival of nuclear power). Following a public consultation, it is set to be published at the end of the first quarter of 2025.
Local authorities, businesses and private individuals are set to have more funds for climate adaptation. In October, prime minister Barnier announced that the relevant fund would be increased by 75 million euros to 300 million euros in 2025.
German snap election to decide path to 2030 climate and energy targets
by Benjamin Wehrmann and Julian Wettengel, Berlin
Following the collapse of chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, all eyes are on the snap election on 23 February 2025 and its implications for the country’s future course of action. Despite its noisy demise, the chancellor’s three-party alliance has made significant progress in key climate and energy policy areas, such as renewables expansion. But the numerous funding questions and policy loose ends left behind by the coalition’s collapse will not make the job easier for a new government.
The snap election and the ensuing coalition talks are set to lead to months of uncertainty and a virtual standstill in policymaking until mid-2025 in a period of economic woes, security challenges and mounting costs that could challenge the acceptance of climate policies.
The conservatives of former chancellor Angela Merkel are far ahead in the polls and look set to lead the next coalition, with Friedrich Merz as their chancellor candidate facing the incumbent Scholz. Whoever forms the next government will have to deal with urgent questions, such as how to finance new gas power plants needed to be able to shut down coal, support the decarbonisation of industries like steel and cement, and save the country’s famed car industry – struggling with the move to e-mobility and under pressure from competition from China and the U.S.
Will Italy get real on plans to revive nuclear energy?
by Ferdinando Cotugno, Milan
The year 2025 could show whether nuclear energy in Italy will turn from being just a political moot point into becoming real policy and a part of the power system. Nuclear energy is a long-term issue. The country’s environment and energy minister, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, has repeatedly said that his government is betting on an energy mix based on renewables and nuclear –Italy phased out the latter in the late 1980s. For some time, the road seemed paved for the return of nuclear, despite hard obstacles, such as two referendums that rejected nuclear energy in 1987 and 2011, and difficulties to find a storage site even for medical nuclear waste.
However, at the UN climate change conference COP29 in Baku, Italy’s prime minister Giorgia Meloni presented her view on the Italian road to net zero and there was no nuclear energy in it, at least no energy from fission. Meloni devoted a good part of her speech to discussing nuclear fusion.
Likely, this was not by mistake, as the government is split on the technology. While her coalition partners are nuclear supporters, Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia party has always been more ambiguous. Recently, Fabio Rampelli, vice president of the chamber of deputies and a well-respected figure within the party, said that “there will never be a nuclear return in any shape or form.”
In addition, the transition to electric mobility is fuelling social and political tensions. Italy’s automotive industry has been in crisis for years, and 2025 could bring more clarity about where it is headed. The sector is experiencing a crisis similar to that in Germany. The transition to electric vehicles is not going well and the sector is struggling. The decline is structural and is bringing serious social tensions, with continuous layoffs and strikes. The government wants to get the European Commission to move forward the review of the combustion engine car phase-out currently scheduled for 2035.
Can Poland get the energy transition underway in the year of presidential elections?
by Patryk Strzałkowski, Warsaw
The biggest question for Poland’s energy transition in 2025 is whether the government can actually get it underway? While rhetoric on climate has changed since the 2023 election, progress has been painfully slow and major mishaps occurred (like the mismanaged wind farm bill or the suspension of the 'clean air' programme).
In 2025, the government will have to show if it can agree on a climate strategy (NCEP, PEP2040) and put forward policies that back it up, from clean power to decisions on the future of coal. These are urgent not only because of the climate goals but also due to the looming power generation gap –after closing the old coal power plants and without enough renewables or gas to replace them, the country could struggle to meet its energy demand.
Central to that will be the presidential election in May. As the president has the power to veto any bill, a government ally in the office would secure full power for the ruling coalition, while an opposition victory would be a major upset and could create a deadlock. It is worth noting that Rafał Trzaskowski, Warsaw mayor and ruling party politician, who is currently leading the polls in the presidential race, has been outspoken about climate and the green transition.
Another major political event: in the first half of 2025, Poland will lead the Council of the EU and “security” is presented as the main theme, with energy security being part of it.
