On her way out, Merkel could set stage for Germany as even more progressive climate partner

Note: A slightly edited version of this article also appeared on China Dialogue.

Content:

• A green shift in Germany
• Germany will only become greener
• Germany as a “champion of multilateralism”
• How will the next German government manage the U.S.-China-EU triangle?
• “Merkel’s last hurrah” as Germany focusses on election
• Merkel as a lame duck
• G7 presidency will be a “sink-or-swim challenge” for the next chancellor

A growing demand for more ambitious climate action is pushing German parties to outbid each other in this year’s national election campaign and is setting the scene for the country to become a more progressive partner in international climate diplomacy.

For the first time ever, climate policy is at, or near, the top of German voters’ concerns in the national election. A recent landmark climate ruling by the country’s constitutional court has pushed Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to pull forward Germany’s goal of climate neutrality to 2045 and update the climate action law. The experienced conservative chancellor is not running for re-election and judging by current polls, the Green Party looks set to become part of the next federal government – either as junior partner, or – less likely – as the leading party that will provide the next chancellor from its ranks.

This ‘green shift’ will influence Germany’s position in the world, says John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group, and co-director of the G20 Research Group at the Trinity College in the University of Toronto. “Clearly the new leadership, regardless of who the chancellor is, is likely to want to do more of what the Green Party has long said it wants to do,” he said.

“I would expect significant advances in Germany’s leadership on climate change,” said Kirton, adding that this will not go unnoticed by close partners. “Germany’s partners will be reading the polls.”

2021 is a crucial year for global climate action, ringing in what U.S. climate envoy John Kerry has called the decisive “decade of action”. The U.S. has come back to the international climate table at full force under president Biden, rallying countries around the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. Major economies including China, the U.S., the UK, Japan, the EU and Germany have announced more ambitious climate targets, but combined plans still fall short of what is needed. The upcoming summit meetings of the world’s largest economies and top emitters – the G7 on 11-13 June and the G20 in October – will pave the way for the COP26 UN climate change conference in November.

A German government official said Germany will support the UK’s aim to make the G7 summit a climate boost for COP26. Negotiations on the final communiqué text were ongoing among the governments (10 June), so the official provided few specifics. Among the topics to be discussed would be climate finance. At a press conference one day before the summit, Merkel said Germany would contribute more to international climate finance. "Germany has doubled its climate finance since 2015, so we are doing very well, but we will contribute even more," she said without providing details. Merkel had recently disappointed civil society hopes by not announcing more public money for climate change mitigation and adaptation in the global south.

CO2 pricing would also be discussed “as a very important multilateral issue”, regarding which the G7 summits had accomplished little until now, said the official. “We hope for a better impulse from this summit.”

Political analysts agree that this green shift is bound to translate into Germany’s international actions. “There is a growing understanding internationally that any future German government is likely to be very green, even if it isn’t one led by the Green Party,” says Jennifer Tollmann, senior policy advisor for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at think tank E3G. “So there is an understanding among partners like the U.S. that they are likely to see more action on climate rather than less,” she said.

Traditionally, German foreign policy positions don’t tend to change with a change in government. “From a government point of view, you don’t see the kind of tabula rasa that you do with the U.S.,” said Tollmann. In Germany, a lot of senior officials remain, which creates a certain amount of consistency, she added. This allowed the government to navigate the time between elections and the swearing-in of a new government more gracefully.

If the Greens were to lead the next government the country will enter somewhat uncharted political waters at the top level. Chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock has made clear she wants all policies of a new federal government to make climate action the yardstick. She and her party oppose the contentious Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 which has been backed by the German government. “We cannot finalise this project,” she recently said at a virtual event of the Atlantic Council. If the project is still under construction when the next government takes office, the pipeline’s fate could be sealed.

The Green party’s foreign policy approach is still in flux, as demonstrated by an internal row over possible arms deliveries to Ukraine. However, the head of the Munich Security Conference Wolfgang Ischinger recently told German Tagesspiegel that the Green Party “does not seek to break with the lines of German foreign, security and European policy that have been tried and tested for decades."

Susanne Dröge, a senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), agrees. “A government with the Greens will challenge its partners more,” she said. But partners do not have to be concerned about any abrupt changes in Germany’s positions on climate when a new government takes office. “The foreign partners can be prepared for Germany to remain very present as a player, or rather to step it up a notch.” She expects that Germany will position itself even more strongly in international climate policy in the coming years. “Reliably, continuously committed, and as a model country that manages to reconcile economic growth and climate policy.”

A government official told Clean Energy Wire that as the consensus among Germany’s parties on international climate policy is strong, Germany is a reliable partner in this policy area. “So that’s what I get reflected in negotiations with my conversation partners.”

This will be even more the case if Merkel is succeeded by the conservative CDU party leader Armin Laschet. The premier of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, and a former member of the European Parliament is seen as a centrist likely to follow Merkel’s moderate course. In one of his first speeches as CDU leader he said he aimed to readjust the relationship between the state, the economy and ecology. “I want climate prosperity,” he said, putting an emphasis on European cooperation and adding that this pledge was central to his bid to become chancellor candidate.

Without the EU, Germany is a weak player in the relationship with China and the U.S., said SWP’s Dröge. “This is about the triangle of the largest economic areas and Germany has to coordinate with the EU again and again, because the balance of power is in a state of flux.” The great challenge for the next German government and the EU will be working together with the U.S. to show a clear position vis-à-vis China while at the same time keep signalling openness on climate action.

Tollman says it is very important for Germany to remain one of the countries that maintain a dialogue with China, playing a mediating role in the debate about infrastructure investments in third countries, such as under the Belt and Road Initiative. “Competition is good, but aggression is bad because it is a distraction from that race to the top that we want it to be. Germany plays an important role in keeping it more on the competition side of things."

Merkel has been a key player in these efforts. Together with French President Emmanuel Macron she had a call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping several days before Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders Summit. and the three leaders agreed to work more closely on climate change. At the Global Solutions Summit Merkel reiterated countries needed to continue to aim for cooperation. “Think of climate change and biodiversity, as well as other global challenges – without China we will not be able to tackle those challenges,” she said.

Her successor will have to work hard to establish the same kind of relations with leaders.

It typically takes more than 30 days from election day to the swearing in of a new government, and the outgoing government is asked to stay in place for that period. That means Merkel could still be in power for both the G20 summit in Rome in October and COP26 November – albeit as a lame duck. After the recent Franco-German Council of Ministers, Merkel reassured Germany’s partners that her government would “very intensively” drive forward its international commitments, despite the election campaign.

“The question of the lame duck always arises -- many heads of state and government have been in that position -- but I don't think it's a big problem for Germany,” said Dröge. Should Merkel attend the G20 after the election, she would certainly negotiate hard on Germany’s behalf.

However, she would no longer have the same legitimacy and power vis-à-vis other heads of state, said Kirton. “Even if she’s still the German chancellor, none of her fellow leaders will know that she’ll be able to go home and say ‘look, fellow party members, you’ve got to comply with the commitments I made’.”

“She will have far less real political authority than she has had so far,” says Kirton. “She will be more like wisdom from the past, maybe a mentor, possibly a mediator, but it’s tough to be a leader when everybody knows you’re for sure on your way out.”