Grain harvest at risk as drought likely in Central and Eastern Europe, warn researchers

Regions in Poland, Belarus and Ukraine are at a high risk of experiencing a drought in 2025, as an "extremely dry" winter could not regenerate already dried out soils from the previous summer, German researchers have warned. Maps by European climate services show "an exceptionally strong anomaly" in soil moisture compared to long-term conditions in the areas, said researchers at the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF). "While Austria and Hungary have received sufficient rainfall to provide a good starting point for agriculture, the situation in Poland, Belarus and Ukraine is tense," the institute wrote in a press release.

"The areas currently affected by extremely low soil moisture levels are among the most productive grain locations in the world," said researcher Claas Nendel. "A possible poor grain harvest due to an intense drought can have a significant impact on the global grain market." The institute recommended people in the agricultural sector to monitor developments and adjust sowing dates accordingly, saying that if the dry spell continues, there may be delays in the germination of summer crops and drought stress in young plants. Moreover, some regions in Germany had already declared higher forest fire risk levels due to the low winter rainfall.

Climate change is causing Europe to warm faster than anywhere else in the world. Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average over the past 30 years. In addition to heatwaves, climate change is also causing many other extreme weather events to become more frequent and more severe. Persistent low levels of rainfall are becoming more common and, when the rain does come, it is frequently in prolonged downpours, causing flooding. Fires are also becoming more intense and more common.

While the bloc has made progress in adapting to these consequences in the past few years, risks currently outpace response, according to a 2024 climate risk assessment by the European Environment Agency (EEA). According to a recent report by the Germany’s National Meteorological Service (DWD), the country is already experiencing serious consequences of climate change and accelerated global warming.