Germany's weather service starts ten-year forecast to improve climate adaptation

A new decade-long weather forecast made by Germany's Meteorological Service (DWD) is supposed to improve the country's climate change adaptation capabilities. "Our new forecast for the next ten years fills the gap between existing climate forecasts for the next months and long-term climate projections until the end of the century," said DWD climatology head Tobias Fuchs. The forecast project, supported by Germany's research ministry, could be used by policymakers, business leaders and others to adapt their investment decisions to climate change, he added. The forecast for the current decade for Germany estimates that average temperatures in the country could rise by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to the reference period 1981-2010. In some regions, temperatures could even rise by up to two degrees Celsius on average by 2030.  Moreover, precipitation volumes are expected to stay below average until 2025, which could be understood as a call to action for water providers to take precautions to ensure sufficient supply, Fuchs said. Wind farm operators might also benefit from the long-term forecast by planning reserve capacities for low-wind years. 

DWD head Gerhard Adrian, who also acts as president of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), said that while climate change has "gained a safe spot on social and political agendas" thanks to scientific discoveries, all important trends "are still pointing in the wrong direction." Adrian said the past decade has been the warmest since weather data began to be collected globally in 1850. The year 2019 was the second warmest on record in Germany, with an average temperature of 10.3 degrees Celsius, 2.1 degrees above the international reference period 1961-1990.