Far-right AfD shifts debate on German climate policy, but lacks real say – researcher
***This article is part of Clean Energy Wire's reporting package to make sense of the climate and energy implications of Germany's 23 February snap election. You can find the rest of our election coverage here.***
Clean Energy Wire: The far-right has entered governments in a handful of European countries. Do you see any chance that the AfD becomes part of Germany’s government either immediately after the election or in the coming year?
Manès Weisskircher: In western Europe, the case of Germany is still quite exceptional: while in many other countries the conservatives have been open to forming coalitions with the far-right, the CDU/CSU alliance – which comfortably leads in the polls – rules this out. So does every other major party. Even in their stronghold regions in eastern Germany, the AfD did not come close to government involvement in the regional elections last autumn.
The AfD will likely continue to remain an opposition party after the federal election – Germany’s conservatives will find other majorities to form a government. Whether the AfD will stay distant from government power five or ten years from now is impossible to tell.
The AfD has been in federal parliament since 2017 and is the only bigger party to flat out reject the science around human-induced climate change and the need for emissions reduction. Over the past eight years as an opposition faction, did the AfD have any significant influence on climate policy decisions in the Bundestag?
The AfD is a party without direct influence in parliament. Typically, the German parliament is marked by stable government-opposition dynamics, and the AfD is an opposition party that other parties do not want to cooperate with, given the party’s far-right stances and radical rhetoric.
At the moment, however, after the breakdown of the SPD-led three-party coalition but ahead of February’s federal election, parliamentary majorities are less stable. This is why the AfD managed to be pivotal in one vote in January, providing support for a CDU resolution – not a law – on immigration. But this was the exception to the rule. At the federal level, no such thing has happened in the context of climate action.
Migration has been the AfD's biggest talking point, and the party looks to have been successful in pushing other parties to work for stricter policy. Is this also the case for climate ambition? Has the AfD succeeded in weakening efforts in Germany, also on a regional and local level?
Pursuing effective climate action is very challenging due to the extent of the problem, the many stakeholders involved, business interests, consumer habits, inherent uncertainties, and the short-term costs required for long-term benefits.
AfD critique is relying on exaggerated claims and heavy language instead of a nuanced criticism of complex policy decisions.
AfD opposition is often additional sand in the gears. Importantly, the AfD has impacted public discourse by framing climate action as too far-reaching or as mainly ‘ideological’ instead of ‘rational’ – AfD critique is relying on exaggerated claims and heavy language instead of a nuanced criticism of complex policy decisions. One example for this is the party’s opposition to the ‘heating law’ in 2023 – the outgoing government's move to gradually phase out fossil fuel-run boilers.
The AfD has also affected climate action at the regional and local levels. For example, wind power expansion has long been heavily criticised by the party at the subnational level, with mainstream parties often turning quieter about the need for expansion. In the state of Thuringia, an AfD stronghold, the party provided decisive support to the CDU and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) in a vote effectively banning wind power in forests – which is a contested measure also among some environmental organisations because of the conflict between climate action and local environmental protection.
The strength of the AfD allows it to shape the current electoral campaign mainly through agenda-setting.
What about the current election campaign: has the AfD put a focus on climate policy and if so, to what purpose? Or are their anti-migration positions so loud that they drown out the climate debate?
Climate change is not a particularly salient issue in the current campaign. Environmental and climate NGOs have a hard time receiving political attention for their demands. Still, the energy transition is an important subject in the current debates about the economy. The AfD continues to oppose the energy transition, pointing to economic stagnation and the problems of the car industry, for example. It portrays the shift towards renewables as the root of all economic problems. The issue of immigration, however, is the focus of this year’s AfD campaign.
Do you expect the AfD to leave any kind of mark on the next coalition treaty, or to influence the public debate in such a way that it pushes the governing parties to weaken their climate policies and positions?
For sure, the strength of the AfD – it is currently Germany's second strongest party in polls – allows it to shape the current electoral campaign mainly through agenda-setting and because of the strong political focus on the previously-mentioned joint vote of CDU/CSU and AfD in parliament. As a result, the AfD benefits from significant political attention and successfully directs focus to its core issues, especially anti-immigration politics.
Given the mainstream parties' rejection of forming coalitions with the AfD, it will not directly affect the coalition negotiations.
This also affects the political competitors, especially the positions of the CDU/CSU, which tries to attract a broad church of centrist and right-wing voters. From such a perspective, the AfD has indirect influence. But given the mainstream parties' rejection of forming coalitions with the AfD, it will not directly affect the coalition negotiations.
Looking at the next four years and a projected stronger AfD faction in parliament, is Germany’s climate policy at risk?
The AfD’s strategic opposition to any new climate policy measures will certainly be a challenge for effective climate action in Germany. However, it is far from the only challenge in times of economic stagnation, with many jobs in industry at risk.
Perhaps the most positive aspect is that we can continue to expect political commitment to the decarbonisation of the economy, the expansion of renewable energy and the already agreed-upon phase-out of coal.
The party is currently polling around 20 percent across Germany. Does this imply that a large share of German voters questions the need for climate action? What messages resonate and why?
Importantly, what resonates most is the AfD’s opposition to concrete measures, such as the expansion of wind power or the ‘heating law.’ The AfD’s positions also find support among sympathisers of other parties. The same is true for the party’s massive attacks on climate protests by the activist group Last Generation. What doesn’t resonate as much is the AfD’s explicit denial of human-made climate change – a fringe position in German society that, according to survey data, is not even a consensual stance among AfD supporters.
