Dispatch from France | June 2024

***Our weekly Dispatches provide an overview of the most relevant recent and upcoming developments for the shift to climate neutrality in selected European countries, from policy and diplomacy to society and industry.

For a bird's-eye view of the country's climate-friendly transition, read the respective 'Guide to'.***

• As the first round of the snap election on 30 June draws near, observers are examining all possible outcomes. Should it win a majority of seats in the National Assembly, the new French government could be headed by Jordan Bardella, who has been striving during the EU election campaign to make the ecological transition a scapegoat in a bid to appeal to the French who do not want the country’s response to climate change constrain their consumption habits. Climate activists, renewable energy actors and scientists worry that the RN would wipe out France’s -- and eventually Europe’s -- green ambitions. Deemed as “the worst choice for the environment” by environmental group Greenpeace, the RN has talked about dismantling renewables and splitting French power prices from the EU’s, two decisions that many energy experts condemn as detached from reality.
• Given the current upheaval in France’s political landscape, energy and climate experts do not expect the government to submit its national energy and climate plan (NECP) to the European Commission on 30 June as planned. Its draft, which was handed in after missing another deadline late last year, did not meet EU requirements as it omitted renewable energy targets. The same goes for France’s national low-carbon strategy and another consultation on the draft multi-year energy plan (PPE), which are both delayed. Parliament’s dissolution has also put on hold many bills, like those related to the farming sector or to the ban on ’forever chemicals.’
• In better news for the climate, the Paris Court of Appeal ruled earlier in June that NGOs and several communities are allowed to sue French oil and gas major TotalEnergies to compel it to cut its emissions, paving the way for an unprecedented climate lawsuit against the group under the Duty of Vigilance Law and marking a new step towards climate accountability. Meanwhile, the French inquiry commission that was exploring ways for the state to guarantee TotalEnergies’ compliance with the nation’s climate commitments recommended 33 steps to do so, including buying a “golden share” in the company.
• In line with the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) warnings made at the latest International Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels against “very high” risks over its financing of nuclear projects, the French-led nuclear alliance will have to rally member states opposed to atomic energy, like Austria and Germany, in order to secure such funding. This is even more pressing for France, as state-owned utility firm EDF came under fire earlier this year after announcing cost increases and delays in building new reactors.
• French economy minister Bruno Le Maire said in June that the government would reopen talks with EDF, as the price at which the group is offering long-term power contracts to large industrial clients is deemed not satisfactory. Last November, the government and EDF agreed that the latter would sell its nuclear output at an average price of 70 euros per MWh once the so-called ARENH mechanism, which requires the company to sell up to 100 TWh of nuclear electricity to other suppliers, expires in 2026. But wholesale power prices for delivery in 2026 are trading below this level, making it difficult to secure contracts.
• France’s transmission system operator RTE warned of “significant” power export curbs from August to October, but failed to explain whether this was due to domestic grid constraints and high export demand, sparking concerns over its ability to avoid future restrictions.
• Lowering energy prices to restore the French’s purchasing power has been made a priority by all parties ahead of the snap election: the RN has pledged to cut the VAT on electricity from 20 percent to 5.5 percent; the president’s camp to reduce power bills by 15 percent from this winter; and the newly created left-wing alliance to return to some sort of price shield. Regardless of the election’s outcome, energy prices look set to be addressed by the next government.

The latest from France – last month in recap

• Hard to miss, news of the dissolution of the lower house of the French parliament (National Assembly) sent shock waves throughout the country and abroad. Some commentators said that Macron had rushed headfirst into turning the far-right Rassemblement National’s (RN) huge gains in the European elections into a national referendum on himself. But since that the polls had predicted a heavy defeat for his party in early June, others believed that Macron had had the time to weigh his interests. He had expected to make the snap election a moment of “clarification” at a time of “extremist fever,” but he mostly prompted the opposing parties to rally against the far right, raising hopes that the country’s environmental ambitions will not be left in the hands of the anti-climate action RN.
• Hoping to halt the far-right’s surge in the national elections, France’s leftist political parties have rallied together and formed a “New Popular Front.”  It replaces the New Ecological and Social People’s Union (NUPES) that imploded last year due to the polarising tactics of far-left leader and three-time presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This new coalition raises hopes for the country’s environmental voters, as it plans massive investments into the transition in a move towards “ecological planning.”
• A French senate inquiry committee urged the government earlier in June to halt Russian LNG imports immediately and include LNG in the list of energy products subject to European sanctions. The conservative-dominated Senate also asked for a ban on new oil and gas projects and new stages of such projects ongoing in Azerbaijan to prevent financing that country’s conflict with Armenia in the Caucasus region. The committee also recommended steps for the state to gain control over the capital of French energy giant TotalEnergies as part of a broader vision of France’s international position in energy policy negotiations.
• In June, France’s High Council on Climate (HCC) published its sixth annual report, in which it estimated for the first time that the country could meet its emissions reduction target of 50 percent in 2030 compared to 2015 (in its most ambitious scenario). The advisory body, however, pointed out that the country could do much better and that current policies were insufficient for reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century as planned. The state needs to “speed up the pace” of implementation of climate-related measures and ensure more support to help French farmers turn to sustainable agricultural practices and adapt to a changing climate.
• Despite the event being banned by the local authorities, protests against the A69 highway project continued in France’s southern Tarn region between Toulouse and Castres. The highway is due to come into service at the end of 2025. Some 1,500 scientists have opposed the project, which they argue puts France on a trajectory that is incompatible with the ecological transition as it promotes the increased use of vehicles and and threatens to destroy the local ecosystems.
• In early June, French hydrogen specialist HDF Energy inaugurated what it claimed to be the first plant in the world dedicated to the production of high-power fuel cells, which should help decarbonise the heavy transport sector and produce electricity for public power grids. The company expects the site, located in the Gironde region, to produce 100 MW of fuel cells per year, with a planned ramp-up to 1,000 MW per year by 2030.

Juliette’s picks – highlights from upcoming events and top reads

• If you have already read the heartbreaking testimony of climate scientists in The Guardian, take the time to read the response of Christiana Figueres, former head of the UN climate change convention and a standard-bearer of “stubborn optimism.”
• In France, the campaign for the snap election takes place in public as much as online and so far, French far-right leader Jordan Bardella is trouncing the majority – again, AFP journalists write in “How France’s far-right is winning the TikTok battle.”
• As more than 80 percent of the electricity produced in France depend on the country’s water resources at a time when episodes of drought multiply and dry up the country, Vert reporter Anne-Claire Poirier wonders about the future of power production in the country.
• There have been misfires in the fight against climate change - and missed opportunities. François Gemenne, for Radio France, invites us to look back on what we could have done yesterday and to learn our lesson to set things right today.
• Another podcast with Le Monde journalist Nabil Wakim discusses ways to speak about the climate crisis without boring others or giving up on its complexity with Jean-Marc Jancovici, engineer and founder of The Shift Project – among his many hats.