Netherlands' future climate policy unclear after far-right’s shock election win

First results show the PVV has won a little less than one-fourth of all the votes in an election turnout of 78.2 percent. A new alliance of the Greens and the Labour Party, led by Frans Timmermans, came in second with around 15 percent of the vote, closely followed by the VVD, the party that led the last four coalition governments.

Many parties, including the VVD, for some time said they would not govern together with the PVV on a national level. Under new leader Dilan Yeşilgöz, the VVD has not ruled out this option. Yeşilgöz said that the ball is currently in Wilders’s court but did not want to repeat her earlier statement that she will not join a coalition with Wilders as prime minister. Other potential coalition partners could be the new party NSC, whose leader Pieter Omtzigt said they want to “take responsibility,” hinting he would be open to talks, and the Farmer-Citizen Movement BBB.

The PVV has a strong electoral base and often came in second or third in previous elections. An Ipsos poll showed that 12 percent of current PVV voters did not vote in the last national election, and 15 percent voted for the VVD last time around.

Wilders said he is willing to negotiate with other parties and to not insist on some of his most controversial stances, like banning mosques and the Quran.

As it is not clear who will form the next government coalition in the Netherlands, the country's future climate policy is also unclear. “In theory, a PVV-led government would mean a big shift in Dutch energy policy because they state that they think climate policy is a waste of money and they want to scrap all renewable energy subsidy schemes,” Sanne de Boer, energy transition analyst at RaboResearch, told Montel.

The Dutch electorate can vote for 26 different political parties. Contrary to many other European countries, the Netherlands does not have an electoral threshold, which partly explains the high number of political parties. The party manifestos of the six highest polling parties are highlighted: Groenlinks – PvdA, D66, NSC, VVD, BBB and PVV.  

• GreenLeft – Social Democrats (GroenLinks – PvdA)
  For this national election, the Greens and the Labour Party formed an alliance presenting one candidate list led by Frans Timmermans, the former European Commissioner for Climate Action. They position themselves as a climate party and insist that big polluters should pay the climate bill.
• Democrats 66 (D66)
  A social liberal party with progressive social views that is pro-EU and which was part of the previous two coalitions. Party leader Rob Jetten is the outgoing Minister for Climate and Energy Policy. It positions itself as a climate party.
• New Social Contract (NSC)
  A new political party, launched and led by Pieter Omtzigt, who was a member of the Christian Democrats (CDA) before splitting from them as an independent fraction in 2021. The main focus is on "good governance" and climate plans in NSC’s manifesto mainly focus on affordability for citizens.
• People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD)
  Centre-right liberal party. The VVD led four different coalitions since 2010. It emphasises that combating climate change should go hand in hand with economic growth.
• The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB)
  A right-wing conservative party with populist tendencies, spearheaded by agricultural interests. BBB became the largest party in all provinces in the March 2023 provincial elections. The party opposes big solar and wind projects and instead emphasises citizen participation in the energy transition.
• Party for Freedom (PVV)
  The PVV was founded in 2006 and has a strong electoral base. They are a nationalist and populist party. Since 2012, prime minister Mark Rutte ruled out collaboration with the party, but this could change under new VVD leadership. The party is opposed to most climate measures, stating they are unnecessary and too costly.

Environment: Nitrogen and nature permits

The Netherlands aims to halve nitrogen emissions by 2030 in protected natural areas against critical deposition levels. Nitrogen emissions in the country are among the highest in the world due to its dense population, heavy traffic and intensive agriculture. Much of the focus concerning nitrogen is on its role in polluting land, water and air. However, nitrogen also plays a role in accelerating climate change said researchers Jan Willem Erisman and Wim de Vries, working at Wageningen University and Leiden University. Nitrogen that ends up in soil forms nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas three hundred times more potent than CO2. Nitrogen also helps to combat climate change, by for instance making forests grow faster and blocking solar heat, but in the end the net contribution of nitrogen emissions comes down to 10 percent of global warming, according to De Vries.

The issue of how to reduce deposition has proven to be politically divisive and led to  a breach of trust in the former coalition, when Wopke Hoekstra - then party leader of the Christian Democrats - said in a media interview that the goal of halving nitrogen emissions in 2030 was “not sacred”, despite his party agreeing on the target only a few months earlier.

The so-called nitrogen crisis kicked off in 2019 when the Dutch Council of State ruled that nitrogen reduction policies were inadequate and in violation of European rules. Much of the Dutch economy came to a standstill because permits for barn extensions or road construction, for example, were granted only if it could be proven that natural protected areas would not suffer. A special nitrogen and nature minister was installed in 2022, and a 24-billion-euros nitrogen fund was approved to regulate sustainable agriculture and buy-out schemes for farmers.

The faltering Dutch policies on nitrogen and nature permits have created many uncertain situations. Schiphol, the country’s biggest airport, only recently obtained a nature permit, and over 500 farmers are at risk of having their extension rights revoked because of a report which found that their barn systems do not reduce nitrogen as much as originally thought. The winning parties will have to find agreements on which sectors to prioritise in the upcoming years.

Agriculture: A lot of farming in a small country

The Netherlands is the second largest exporter of agricultural products in the world after the United States. About half of its surface area is used for agricultural purposes. The sector is responsible for 15 percent of carbon emissions and 45 percent of nitrogen deposition. Pollution from agriculture also has negative impacts on biodiversity and water quality, with the Netherlands having the worst water quality of all EU member states. How to reform agriculture is a polarising issue and led to large, sometimes aggressive, protests by farmers in recent years.

The problems surrounding agriculture emissions have long been known but the government has often delayed taking decisive action. For many years, banks encouraged farmers to expand their businesses with loans. The Dutch nitrogen crisis in 2019 sparked a debate around the size of farms and amount of livestock, discouraging this long-promoted expansion.

Rabobank, the second-largest bank in the Netherlands, played a big role in funding these expansions. The bank has been sued by several farmers and an interlocutory ruling in early November agreed with a dairy farmer that the bank should have warned of potentially stricter emissions rules leading to a higher risk of taking out a loan, as reported by newspaper NRC. This ruling will likely have big consequences for Rabobank, as around 80 percent of Dutch dairy farmers are its customers.

Other hot potato issues around agriculture are whether government buyouts of farms should be compulsory, the number of livestock, and the limiting of mega farms. D66 originally proposed a plan to halve the number of livestock, an idea echoed in its previous party manifesto, as well as the one from GroenLinks. For the upcoming elections only the smaller parties put in specific goals in their party manifestos for limiting livestock. The size of farms is another big issue for the next government to tackle: the total number of farms has decreased but the size of the businesses has expanded over the years with an increasing amount of mega farms.

Finance: Fossil fuel subsidies

Extinction Rebellion protests against fossil fuel subsidies started in 2020 and, after a highway in The Hague was blocked for 27 consecutive days in September this year, the cabinet agreed to a phase-out plan for fossil fuel subsidies. The plan is likely to be presented in 2024. The decision comes after years of scrambling over the exact amount of fossil fuel subsidies: In 2020, the government came up with a figure of 4.5 billion euros a year, but after independent researchers and environmental groups came up with higher amounts, climate minister Rob Jetten commissioned a study that showed that the Dutch government spends between 39.7 billion and 46.4 billion euros a year on schemes that lead to fossil benefits.

“Of course, we will look critically at what happens next. Should it turn out that politics fails again, we will come back with much more,” said Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Tessel Hofstede.

Overseas fossil fuel subsidies: Backtracking on the Glasgow Statement

The Netherlands backtracked on its Glasgow COP26 promise to end support for international fossil fuel projects by the end of 2022. The government adopted a “transition period” which means projects requested in 2022 can still be approved in 2023. Earlier this year, the Atradius Dutch State Business (ASDB) approved export credit insurance for almost 300 million euros for a large floating oil and gas production facility in Brazil, which will be in operation for 30 years. Other projects are still under consideration.

Besides this loophole, there are other exceptions which will be allowed after 2023 including certain fossil fuel services, existing infrastructure, ports and shipbuilding, power generation in low-income countries, and broadly defined exemptions for projects that contribute to European supply security.

The Netherlands was among 39 countries and institutions that signed the Glasgow pledge during COP26 to end international fossil fuel subsidies. The main countries that continue to support fossil fuel projects include Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, according to a tracker by Oil Change International.

Transport: To fly or not to fly?

The Netherlands is well known for being a bicycle-friendly country but is still struggling to decarbonise its transport sector, which is currently responsible for around a quarter of Dutch greenhouse gas emissions. The biggest culprit is aviation, but road and water transport have also barely decarbonised over the years. Mobility was a particularly thorny issue during discussions over climate plans, as largest political party VVD has traditionally championed the interests of car owners. The measures taken by the outgoing government include the mandatory blending of biofuel with petrol, which will increase the price of petrol by a few cents next year, as well as subsidising the purchase of second-hand electric cars and expanding the network of charging stations.

The future of flying is yet another conundrum, with the government at odds with airline KLM and Schiphol Group, which own three airports in the country, over aviation growth. Despite the fall of the cabinet, plans for a flight cap at Schiphol airport - the most important in the country - are being carried forward: In 2024 the number of flights should decrease from 500.000 to 452.500 annually. The outgoing government wants to reduce the number of flights at Schiphol to combat noise pollution and limit damage to the climate, the environment, and the health of local residents. KLM, along with other airlines, filed a lawsuit against the government to prevent the flight cap at one of Europe's busiest airports, but lost an appeal in July this year.

Plans to reduce the number of flights at the largest national airport Schiphol as early as April next year have been shelved following pressure from the European Union and the U.S. government. The planned reduction from 500,000 to 452,500 flights starting in November 2024 is still on the table.

The growth of Schiphol Group is not just a problem in Amsterdam: there is political disagreement over whether an airport in Lelystad should open for commercial flights to relieve Schiphol. This was supposed to happen in 2019, but was delayed due to nitrogen issues.

One of the areas which most parties do agree on is sustainable transport, with broad support for investments in public transport accessibility and bicycle infrastructure. Both D66 and Groenlinks-PvdA propose a nationwide "climate ticket" for public transport, similar to Germany’s flat-rate ticket.

Future technologies: Hydrogen and CCS

The Netherlands aims to become the hub for green hydrogen in Europe. In Rotterdam, the construction of a hydrogen network has begun, which will connect major industrial regions in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany from 2030 onwards. To scale up the hydrogen market, the government has earmarked 9 billion euros to increase the country's electrolysis capacity - needed to split water into hydrogen and oxygen - and to encourage industry to increasingly use green hydrogen from 2026 onwards.

Next to Rotterdam, Groningen is an important location for the Dutch hydrogen plans. The NorthH2-project was announced in 2020, consisting of a wind farm with a capacity of 3 to 4 GW by 2030 to help produce green hydrogen. Major oil and gas company Shell plays a key role in the Netherlands' hydrogen plans. It is strongly involved in the NorthH2 project and is currently building Holland Hydrogen I in the Rotterdam port, which Shell said will be Europe's largest sustainable hydrogen plant and will be operational by 2025. Investigative journalism platform Follow the Money reported in May 2023 that the 150 million euros subsidy Shell received for Holland Hydrogen I was ineligible under EU rules, but that it got approved by the European Commission after pressure from the Dutch government.

CCS: Mega-project Porthos approved

The carbon capture and storage (CCS) project Porthos was approved by the Council of State last August despite concern over the project’s burdensome nitrogen emissions. The project is expected to be in operation in 2026 and will transport and store CO2 from industry in empty gas fields below the North Sea. Porthos expects to store 2.5 megatonnes of CO2 under the sea every year, 1.5 percent of the Netherland's annual emissions. The Dutch state released two billion euros for the project and the EU declared it a Project of Common Interest, subsiding it with 102 million euros.

Porthos is the first CCS project in the Netherlands. A similar plan by Shell to store CO2 under Barendrecht, a municipality close to Rotterdam, was abandoned about a decade ago due to unrest among citizens.

No more Groningen gas: The future of natural gas extraction in the Netherlands

After 60 years, natural gas extraction in Groningen, a northern province, came to an end on 1 October. The extraction sites will not be dismantled until next year to keep open the possibility to restart this winter in case of exceptional circumstances. After peaking at 50 billion cubic metres in 2015, Groningen accounted for 6.5 billion cubic metres of Dutch gas in 2021. The same year, the North Sea accounted for 8.9 billion and 2.7 billion was extracted from small fields.

The Groningen gas field is one of the most densely populated extraction areas in the world and has been a source of controversy due to induced earthquakes and damage to houses. “The interests of the people of Groningen were structurally ignored during gas extraction,” stated a parliamentary inquiry that came out in February 2023. The number of damage claims from citizens increased over the years but the handling of the claims and the the repair and reinforcement of houses were often met with red tape, reluctance, and slow bureaucratic processes.

Groningen gas is exploited by the Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij (NAM), in a public-private partnership formed in 1963, in which the state works with oil giants Shell and ExxonMobil in a so-called 'silent partnership'. While the NAM was originally responsible for handling citizen’s damage claims, the government was put in charge in 2018.

The Netherlands had the highest per capita gas consumption in the European Union in 2022, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. To meet demand, more liquefied natural gas (LNG) is being imported, mostly from the United States, and gas is being extracted from small fields in the North Sea. NAM, meanwhile, is putting pressure on the outgoing cabinet to start drilling under the Wadden Sea off the coast of Friesland, another Northern province, as reported by public broadcaster NOS. The plans are meeting resistance from Friesland nature clubs, while "people are afraid of Groningen conditions”, said Johannes Kramer, mayor of the Noardeast-Fryslân municipality.

Nuclear energy: New reactors?

The current government has plans to expand nuclear power, but these are yet to be approved. Five billion euros have been earmarked in the so-called climate fund to build two new nuclear power plants, and 65 million to accelerate the development of small modular reactors (SMRs). The government said it expects these plants to be ready by 2035 and aims to build them in Borssele, a village in the province of Zeeland, where the only operational Dutch nuclear power plant is located. The government plans to extend the lifetime of the existing Borssele nuclear power plant to allow it to continue operating after 2033.

Most political parties in the Netherlands are in favour of expanding nuclear energy, except for PvdA – GroenLinks, and other left leaning parties. This is a big turning point from a decade ago, as reported by public broadcaster NOS. Experts are critical of the plans. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) said five billion euros might not be enough to eliminate investments risks. The "Expert Team Energy System 2050”, which advised the government on what a Dutch energy system should look like in 2050, argued that nuclear power will most likely form a relatively small part of the future electricity system, which makes it questionable whether it is a good use of public money.

When reporting on the Dutch elections, these are key contacts for your research.

Jan Willem Erisman

Professor of Environmental Sustainability within the Institute of Environmental Sciences of Leiden University with expertise on nitrogen issues

Contact: https://www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/staffmembers/jan-willem-erisman#tab-1
Email: j.w.erisman@cml.leidenuniv.nl
Call: +31 71 527 7484

Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)

The CPB is an independent government agency conducting policy research.

Contact: https://www.cpb.nl/en/contact
Press contact: Jeannette Duin
Email: J.E.C.Duin@cpb.nl
Call: +31 (0)88 9846163

Press contact: Petra Huijser,
Email: P.A.C.A.Huijser@cpb.nl
Call: +31 6 11141285

Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)

The national institute for strategic policy analysis in the fields of the environment, nature and spatial planning

Contact: https://www.pbl.nl/en/about-pbl/contact
Press contact: Mieke Berkers
Email: mieke.berkers@pbl.nl
Call:+316 25068171
Topics: agriculture, food, water, climate, air and energy, nature, rural areas

Press contact: Laura Westendorp
Email: laura.westendorp@pbl.nl
Call: +31625052271
Topics: urbanisation, transport, spatial planning, quality of the local environment, circular economy

Niels Hazekamp

Senior policy advisor on trade finance and climate at NGO Both ENDS, expert on international fossil fuel subsidies

Contact: https://www.bothends.org/en/About-Both-ENDS/Employees/Niels-Hazekamp/
Email: n.hazekamp@bothends.org
Call: +31681906281

Rene Peters

Business Director Gas Technology Dutch Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO)

Contact: https://www.tno.nl/en/about-tno/our-people/rene-peters/
Call: +31 88 866 63 40

Sarah de Lange

Professor of Political Pluralism at the Department of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam

Contact: https://www.uva.nl/profiel/l/a/s.l.delange/s.l.delange.html?cb#Profile
Email: S.L.deLange@uva.nl

Willy Baltussen

Agricultural economist working for over 35 years at Wageningen Economic Research. He has a wide knowledge of farm economics, livestock production, agricultural supply chains and their organisation

Contact: https//www.wur.nl/en/persons/willy-ir.-whm-willy-baltussen.htm
Call: +31703358171

Extinction Rebellion Netherlands

Local branch of Extinction Rebellion, an environmental action group

Contact: https://extinctionrebellion.nl/pers-en-nieuws/
Email: media@extinctionrebellion.nl
Call: +31 6 481 70 971 or +31 6 346 30 114