Heat pump sales halved in Germany in 2024 but industry confident of better times ahead

Sales of heat pumps in Germany dropped by almost half (46%) in 2024 but the industry is confident that support mechanisms will quickly lead to a strong increase in purchases, the German Heat Pump Association (BWP) has said. Uncertainties regarding municipal heat planning and little knowledge in the wider public about existing support programmes contributed to the meagre business figures in the past year, during which about 193,000 heat pumps were sold across the country, compared to 356,000 units in 2023. Many producers had invested in production capacities and staff in the past two years to meet the expected surge in demand, which so far has remained behind expectations. However, “we have prepared well for tough international competition and a market that soon will get into full swing,” said Klaus Ackermann, CEO of producer NIBE.

With around 150,000 new purchase support applications, the interest in state aid for buyers has surged quickly, the BWP said, adding that sales could climb back to envisaged levels already this year. Ackermann said all parties in parliament must embrace the transition in the heating sector and help to strengthen the budding industry. With its Building Energy Act and municipal heating planning regulation, Germany had laid the groundwork for achieving a climate neutral building stock, the CEO argued. “These structures should be upheld until the EU emissions trading system for heat and transport is introduced as planned in 2027,” Ackermann said.

The BWP said the Building Energy Act (GEG), which had led to a controversial public debate in 2023 about phasing out fossil heating systems, has been designed to provide clarity to customers, companies and installers regarding the heating sector’s transition path. Repealing the regulation, a step advocated by the conservative CDU/CSU opposition alliance that is currently leading in polls, would therefore only cause irritation among buyers and producers. “This causes an unnecessary and damaging restraint in the market,” the BWP commented. It was wrong to think that natural gas could be replaced by hydrogen at a large scale, the BWP added. The industry lobby group said that the phase-out of fossil heating systems should continue as planned, not only for the sake of reducing emissions but also “to protect customers from false promises and bad investments.”