Dispatch from the European Union | December '24
*** Our weekly Dispatches provide an overview of the most relevant recent and upcoming developments for the shift to climate neutrality in selected European countries, from policy and diplomacy to society and industry. For a bird's-eye view of the country's climate-friendly transition, read the respective 'Guide to'. ***
EU energy ministers finished their last Council meeting of the year in mid-December where they were briefed by the new EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen, formerly a climate and energy minister in Denmark and centre-left member of the European Parliament, about the energy prices situation heading into the winter. The new college of 27 EU commissioners – one per member state – have been getting settled in their new offices at a time when a chorus of right-wing voices in Europe are blaming EU climate policy for high energy prices, also in Germany in the run-up to February’s election. Renewables have, in particular, been blamed for high prices.
“The prices are not high because of renewables, they’re high because we don’t have enough renewables,” he told journalists following his meeting with the ministers. “Deployment of renewables in Europe has led to a decrease in prices compared to what we would have had if we didn’t have this deployment.”
But Europe’s souring mood on climate policy amid increasing geopolitical tensions and the domestic rise of the far right was evident during the ministers’ discussion on the future of EU energy policy. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s Green Deal came in for intense criticism from both the far right and her own centre-right European Peoples Party (EPP) during this year’s EU election campaign, and there has been concern she will back away from it in her second term and allow it to be dismantled. A possible early sign of this came in November, when EU lawmakers decided to delay the application of a new EU anti-deforestation law by at least a year. A recently-adopted law to phase out combustion engines by 2035 seems to be in the crosshairs next.
Stories to watch in the weeks ahead
- Clean Industrial Deal: The new commission college has been confirmed and the ‘VDL2’ (von der Leyen) term has officially begun. Talk of the town in Brussels is the planned Clean Industrial Deal which president von der Leyen has promised to put forward within her first 100 days. But what is it exactly? Some on the right hope (and some on the left fear) that the intention is to chip away at parts of the Green Deal legislation passed during VDL1 which industry doesn’t like. The Commission has insisted that this is not the plan and that, instead, it is a strategy to boost Europe’s industrial competitiveness using the Green Deal framework. But given that the line at Brussels conferences over the past months, from both the Commission and industry, is that the coming term will see far less EU legislation proposed, that only leaves existing laws for the deal to go after. Jørgensen said on 16 December that the deal will be accompanied by an “affordable energy roadmap” to reduce prices as well as a roadmap to full independence from Russian energy. The latest expectation is that it will be adopted on 26 February.
- 2040 renewables target: The new Commission is also planning a proposal to set an as-yet-undefined renewables target for 2040 in the coming months, accompanying a new emissions reduction goal of 90 percent. Jørgensen suggested the renewables target could also be 90 percent, by share of renewables in electricity generation. Energy ministers held a contentious first discussion about this plan, with the divisive issue of nuclear power a key topic.. Several ministers from pro-nuclear countries requested that it be made easier for them by including nuclear in what can count toward the renewable share target. French energy minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher supported this idea following a meeting of 15 pro-nuclear EU countries. Anti-nuclear countries such as Germany and Austria are deeply opposed. But Jørgensen did not sound convinced after the meeting. “We will need all clean energy tools, both renewables which will be the cornerstone of our energy policy in the future, but also nuclear,” he said. “Does that mean we will mix that together in one target? No, I don’t think that would be a wise way to do it.”
- Geothermal strategy: Hungarian energy minister Csaba Lantos, who has been chairing these meetings until Hungary’s time at the helm of the EU Council is passed to Poland on 1 January, convinced ministers to call on the Commission to create a dedicated strategy on geothermal energy. The subject of geothermal power is a hobbyhorse for Budapest, which says too much emphasis is being placed on wind and solar.
- Winter supply: Jørgensen also briefed ministers about the Commission’s expectations for energy supply in the coming winter, with concerns being raised about the impending end of an intergovernmental transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow on 31 December. The agreement had served as a basis for Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe. The Commission’s assessment said the termination had already impacted European gas markets but assured that alternative supply sources can be secured. Austria and Slovakia, which are still importing Russian gas via Ukraine, can cope without this supply, according to the analysis. But gas buyers in Slovakia and Hungary are continuing talks about extending supply agreements beyond the end of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal. “We are facing a winter that will give us challenges but we are ready,” said Jørgensen.
- Energy disinformation: Poland will take over the rotating EU Council presidency on 1 January, and the government has said that security will be its number one priority, including in the area of energy. Speaking at a presidency preview event in Brussels last week, Polish climate and environment minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska said this would include fighting anti-EU “energy disinformation” making citizens question EU climate policies - which she suggested may be coming from Moscow. “The Polish presidency will try to [fight] climate and energy disinformation campaigns,” she said. “We cannot allow the EU’s adversaries to manipulate our societies and derail our actions on the path of the energy transition and decarbonisation.”
The latest in EU policymaking – last month in recap
- Commissioner hearings, which were held last month, descended into an ugly slugfest. Centre-right Spanish members of the EPP used the hearing of centre-left Spanish Commission executive vice president Teresa Ribera, who will be in charge of climate issues among other things, as an opportunity to attack the Spanish government’s handling of the Valencia floods. Though a truce had effectively been informally agreed ahead of time that the parliament would not reject any nominees for the first time in 15 years, the Spanish conservatives’ attacks inflamed tensions so much that the centre left threatened to reject the two commissioners from far-right parties, Italy’s Raffaele Fitto and Hungary’s Oliver Varhelyi. The spat looked set to disrupt the entire commission confirmation process but, in the end, von der Leyen was able to get by because of support from both the Greens and the far right. But as part of the compromise to get the Commission through, the EPP insisted that Ribera should resign if the Spanish judiciary accuses her of wrongdoing in management of the floods. Ribera declined to make such a commitment herself.
- Deforestation continues: Members of the European Parliament and national governments in the Council agreed to delay the start of the union’s landmark anti-deforestation law until December 2025. The Commission has been late to come out with guidance for its implementation, spurring complaints from businesses that they could not be ready in time for the December 2024 start date. National politicians on the right had complained about the administrative burden of the new law and said it would drive up prices.
Dave’s picks: highlights from upcoming events and top reads
- Events: Brussels is entering winter break mode so there will be no events until late January. In Warsaw, the Polish presidency will hold its opening gala on 3 January. On 22 January it will hold a high-level meeting of climate envoys from EU member states in Warsaw to set the union’s negotiating mandate for upcoming international climate talks.
- Essential reads: Politico has an interview with former EU crisis management commissioner Janez Lenarčič warning that the EU is entering another period of possible yellow-vest-style revolts against climate policy which could spread across the union. Euronews has an investigation into the use of child labour to mine the lithium needed for electric vehicles. And the Guardian has a piece about how US government-funded scientists are bracing for instructions from the White House to change their research to suit Donald Trump’s climate denialism.
- Plans: I’ll be visiting my family in the New York City area for Christmas before spending two weeks in Colombia in January working on an article about the country’s ecological transition. Enjoy the break!
