German coal exit may initially drive power prices - analysts

Germany’s coal phase-out will likely increase power prices in the wholesale market, according to a newly published report by petrochemical market information provider ICIS. ICIS’ energy analytics team used a model to simulate the impact of four coal phase-out scenarios and their impact on German power prices and CO₂ emissions towards 2030. “Our models show that a German coal phase-out has the potential to significantly increase German spot power prices to levels between 55 euros/MWh and 60 euros/MWh through to 2023,” said Marcus Ferdinand, head of EU Power and Carbon Analytics at ICIS. Depending on the speed of the phase-out, German power prices would then correct downwards towards 2030, factoring in lower carbon prices and renewable capacity growth, the report predicts.