“How homes will be heated in 2030: Five million heat pumps, the same amount of gas, much less oil”

Heating systems in Germany will have to change substantially by 2030 if the country is to reach its climate targets for 2050, according to a study commissioned by energy think-tank Agora Energiewende*. While the share of natural gas used for heating will remain broadly unchanged until 2030, higher efficiency will have to cut heat demand by a quarter, and most heating systems relying on oil will have to be decommissioned.
“There is hardly any space left for heating oil in a climate-friendly and cost-efficient 2030 heat system. In contrast, heat pumps will become a central pillar - they will have to supply around 20 times as much heat as today,” according to an Agora press release. The study by Fraunhofer institutes IWES and IBP, with support from Fraunhofer ISE, the Institute for Applied Ecology and Prognos also argues that current building insulation and heat pump installation rates are insufficient to reach these targets, and that the share of renewable energy will have to reach 60 percent in 2030, five years earlier than current government plans.

Find the press release and the study in German here.

For background, read the CLEW dossier The Energiewende and Efficiency.

*Like the Clean Energy Wire, Agora Energiewende is a project funded by Stiftung Mercator and the European Climate Foundation.