German EV sales off track to reaching 15 million target by 2030 – researchers

The German government is aiming to see 15 million electric cars on the roads by 2030, but current sales are making this target increasingly difficult to reach, transport transition think tank Agora Verkehrswende has warned in a Spiegel report. An average of around 5,000 battery-powered passenger cars would have to be registered every day already this year in order to increase the number to 15 million vehicles by the end of the decade, Agora estimates. "So far, sales are far below what's required," said the organisation's director Christian Hochfeld. The market ramp-up of electric cars, however, could still accelerate in the coming years, making the 15 million target achievable, as per a report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research from 2022, writes Spiegel. Similarly, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) sees the current development as “slightly below the target path” but notes that setbacks, such as some experts fear, are not included in any of its forecast models.

In addition, the prices for electric and combustion engine cars are expected to reach the same level by 2025 for many models, Handelsblatt reports, citing Stefan Bratzel, director of Germany’s Center of Automotive Management. While CO2 targets are forcing car manufacturers to increase the proportion of electric cars they produce, combustion engines must become even more efficient to comply with EU emission guidelines – both factors that could lead to rapid parity as electric car prices fall and combustion engine vehicle prices rise.

The government parties wrote in their coalition agreement that they aimed to have 15 million fully-electric passenger cars on German roads by 2030 – a key element of the efforts to bring down CO2 emissions in the transport sector.