Autonomous cars won’t dominate before 2040 - study

The path to autonomous vehicles will be an evolution rather than a revolution, and fully “digital cars” won’t dominate Germany’s roads before 2040, according to a Deutsche Bank study. This is due to the industry’s long development cycles, the longevity of cars, and the sluggishness of consumer preferences, writes author Eric Heymann. Some IT companies might have an advantage in certain aspects of autonomous cars, for example in the associated data market, but car production itself should remain the domain of traditional carmakers. “It wouldn’t be surprising if many of today’s carmakers (not only from Germany) and their suppliers determine technological trends of the ‘digital car’ to a large degree in 15 to 25 years,” concludes Heymann.

Find the study in German here and a Spiegel article on the study in German here.

For background, read the CLEW dossier The Energiewende and German carmakers.