Dispatch from the European Union | March '25

The target was expected to be announced alongside the Clean Industrial Deal strategy, unveiled at the end of February. But when the time came, it was missing – an omission that was only revealed by the European Commission in a briefing the night before the industry strategy's release. In mid-March, the Commission said that the target proposal was being delayed to an unspecified future date and will not come out in the first quarter of 2025 as planned.

Senior policymakers from the EU and from member states have come out against the 90-percent target recommended by the Commission last year and want the EU's executive branch to lower it or shelve it entirely. Italy’s energy minister, Gilberto Frattin, told the Commission on the sidelines of the Energy Council in Brussels in March that a proposal with this target level should not get published. In a note to the Commission, Frattin said that the EU “should carefully consider the recommended choice of the 90 percent reduction target for 2040, compared to alternatives of 80 percent and 85 percent, both compatible with the net zero goal by 2050," arguing that “the risk would be forcing countries into overly drastic measures with uncertain outcomes.”

The proposal would come in the form of an amendment to the EU’s climate law, which has already set a 55-percent reduction target for 2030 and the goal to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. The proposal would then need to be approved by majority vote in the Council of national governments and in the European Parliament. Only eight of the EU’s 27 countries have explicitly supported the 90-percent target. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s European People’s Party (EPP) – the largest group in the European Parliament – is split on the issue, with several senior EPP MEPs openly criticising the idea.

Dan Jørgensen, the new EU energy commissioner, insisted in a public session with energy ministers in Brussels that the Commission is not backing away from the Green Deal legislation adopted during von der Leyen’s first term. “The EU’s fight against climate change does not stop just because a big country on the other side of the Atlantic withdraws from the Paris Agreement,” he said. But climate campaigners fear the overall direction is that the EU is retreating from the climate fight.

• Omnibus resistance: For climate campaigners, the biggest signal that von der Leyen is set to significantly weaken EU climate regulation came with the so-called omnibus package proposed alongside the Clean Industrial Deal at the end of February. Activists protested outside the Commission headquarters when it was unveiled. The package would weaken four pieces of already passed climate legislation: the Taxonomy regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). The centre-left S&D group, the second-largest in the European Parliament, has vowed to fight the deregulation push. “We will not accept backtracking on social and environmental standards and established policy goals,” said German MEP Gabriele Bischoff. “We cannot empty them now in the name of simplification and put profit before people and the planet.”
• CBAM changes: Alongside the Clean Industrial Deal strategy, the Commission floated an idea to exempt small and medium-sized businesses from the new CBAM carbon border levy taking effect this year. Although the levy was supposed to apply to all companies, the change would exempt 80 percent of businesses. However, the Commission said that 97 percent of emissions would still be covered. This proposal has proven less controversial than the omnibus package, with the centrist majority coalition in the European Parliament indicating they intend to leave the Commission’s proposal untouched. Larger CBAM changes may be coming as well, according to some leaked drafts of plans.
• Energy independence roadmap: The European Commission is due to present a roadmap towards completely ending energy imports from Russia, but it is currently unclear when it will be released. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen was tasked with putting together the roadmap in his mission letter last year. It was due to be presented on 26 March but the date has been postponed.
• Water resilience strategy: The new Commission’s work programme also envisages a water resilience strategy to be put forward in the second quarter of 2025. It will "take a source-to-sea approach and consider the widely different challenges in our regions and in sectors to ensure that sources of water are properly managed, scarcity and pollution are addressed, and to increase the competitiveness of our water industry,” according to the Commission.
• Renewables target: The new Commission is also planning to come up with a proposal to set a yet undefined renewables target for 2040 in the coming months, accompanying a new emissions reduction goal of 90 percent. Jørgensen suggested this target could also be 90 percent, by share of renewables in the EU’s energy mix. Last year, EU energy ministers held a contentious first discussion about this plan, with the divisive question of nuclear power being a key discussion point.
• Gas storage change: Euractiv reports that EU member states consider lowering the 90 percent gas storage target that was put in place after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to 85 percent. The states are drafting amendments to a Commission proposal to extend the scheme for two years, and are also asking that they no longer face a fixed deadline on 1 November each year. Countries including Germany, France and the Netherlands are concerned that the rules are pushing up prices because the market actors know European buyers are obliged to purchase large volumes of gas by a fixed deadline.

• Events: The International Energy Agency (IEA) is holding a summit on the future of energy security on 24-25 April in London, which is expected to address how rising geopolitical tensions will impact the energy sector.
• Essential reads: The Sciences Po centre for sustainable development and climate transition has a good and nuanced analysis of the Clean Industrial Deal that sees opportunities for an expansion of climate action under its framework. The Jacques Delors Institute, however, paints a less rosy picture.