EU climate targets a billion euro risk for German budget

Over the coming decade, Germany might have to pay billions of euros from its state budget to buy emissions rights from other countries if it does not manage to significantly lower its own greenhouse gas emissions in the transport, buildings, and agriculture sectors, according to calculations undertaken by the Institute for Applied Ecology (Öko-Institut). Germany’s combined emissions in these sectors have been rising since 2014 and are not covered by the European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS). However, according to the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, Germany’ non-ETS emissions must decrease by 14 percent by 2020, and by 38 percent by 2030, compared to 2005. By 2020, buying emissions rights from other countries could cost Germany 600 million euros. In the period between 2021 and 2030, the Öko-Institut expects allowance prices to rise, so that Germany might in the end have to pay 5-30 billion euros “even under optimistic emissions development scenarios”. The environment ministry did not want to comment on specific amounts as they depend on a series of assumptions, writes Tagesspiegel Background. The news service was the first to report on Öko-Institut’s calculations.
In January, an internal paper from the environment ministry had said that Germany will have to buy allowances from other countries to comply with its 2020 goals.

You can purchase the article by Tagesspiegel Background in German here.

For background, read the CLEW article Germany may have to buy way out of EU climate goal - ministry paper.