CLEW Guide – NGOs become disillusioned with Poland’s new government
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Content:
Key background
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The liberal, pro-European opposition in Poland won the election on 15 October. The new coalition, made up of former European Council president Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (30.7 percent), the Third Way (14.4 percent) and the Left (8.6 percent), formed a government in December 2023. In the first months, it has not delivered on promises of presenting a plan of a speed-up of the energy transition. A partial update to the National energy and climate plan (mandated under the EU) was delivered, but the document is far from the final version and presents a rather conservative look into the energy transition until 2030.
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Poland was responsible for about 12% of total EU GHG emissions in 2021. Carbon emissions have fallen over 30 percent since peaking in the 1980s. Most of the reductions took place in the 1990s along with the fall of communism and a shift away from an industrial, planned economy. Emissions levels have not changed significantly since 2001. Poland's current greenhouse gas emission reduction target in the EU for 2030 (for domestic transport, buildings, agriculture, small industry and waste) is 17.7 percent compared to 2005. It's far less than countries like Germany or Denmark (50%), but Poland's total emission in 2021 were actually slightly higher compared to 2005.
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In 2023, Poland saw a significant drop in the share of coal in the electricity mix, from 70 percent the previous year to 61 percent. But even with the rise in renewables, electricity generation remains strongly reliant on coal. Poland’s power sector has the highest carbon intensity in the European Union, making the coal phase-out a key challenge. The country’s energy sector is dominated by big, state-owned or partially state-owned companies, like oil corporation Orlen or Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE), an energy company that owns coal plants and mines.
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Poland managed to diversify its supply of gas, oil, and coal, after being heavily reliant on imports from Russia. In 2023, subsidies were put in place to keep gas and electricity prices down - but the cost for the state was tens of billion of euros. The new government extended the subsidy into the first half of 2024. With wholesale price falling to levels seen before the energy crisis, the Climate Ministry assures most consumers will see a moderate rise of their bills from July (around 8 euros, or 15-20% of an average bill), and vulnerable households will get some form of subsidy.
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Drought is a main concern when it comes to the effects of climate change in Poland, with threats to the agriculture and forestry sectors, which are both important for its economy. The winter of 2024 has been, however, very wet, so at least for the first months of the year the prospect of drought is reduced.
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Air pollution is a major public health concern, fuelled not just by cars, but also furnaces, as no other EU country uses nearly as much coal for heating.
Major transition stories
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The burden of coal – coal power is the biggest question mark hanging over Poland’s transition. According to plans from the previous government, Poland would be the last EU country using coal for power generation well into the 2040s. With ageing plants and an end to public subsidies looming, many coal plants will face closure earlier than planned, possibly threatening Poland with a power generation gap. The new ruling coalition has plans to accelerate deployment of renewables that, if realised, would make the need for coal marginal around the late 2030s. Just transition plans have been drawn for coal regions, but not all will receive EU funding – the lignite mine in the region of Turów was not approved for support as coal extraction is planned until 2044; unlike Bełchatów, home of the largest lignite plant in Europe, that is to close in the 2030s and will receive funding. With a rising price of CO2 in EU ETS, coal is driving up electricity prices.
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Battery power-house — Poland is not among leading car producers in the EU, but there is a sector that stands to gain from the transition to electric vehicles: battery production. In April 2023 Poland overtook the U.S. as the country with second largest lithium-ion battery production capacity in the world. The sector sees the rise of EV’s and energy storage as a huge opportunity.
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Going nuclear – Poland has not been able to successfully build a nuclear power plant despite ongoing efforts since the 1970s. The first initiative from 1971 made it to the construction phase, but collapsed with the fall of communism and protests. A newer project, which began in 2009, became stuck in an early phase. Now is the furthest any nuclear project has come since the fall of communism, with the U.S. firm Westinghouse as technological partner and 2033 as the planned open date. Another public-private project being considered is a partnership with the Korean firm KHNP. State oil company Orlen is planning to build a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) unit by 2030, and envisions more than 70 others across Poland in the coming decades.
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Solar boom — While wind power capacity has stalled with the passing of unfavourable legislation, solar PV has exploded from a marginal capacity in 2018 to over 16 GW by the end of 2023, having supplied 8.7 percent of electricity in 2023 (up from 5.7 percent in 2022) with both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects. However, this has pushed the outdated electricity grid to its limits, leading to thousands of projects being denied grid connection, due to outdated regulation or just too much electricity for the grid to cope with. A new update in legislation (introducing solutions like cable pooling) is meant to aid the situation.
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An end to conflicts with the EU – The two terms of the PiS/United Right rule were marked by many conflicts with the EU, centred around the rule of law and Poland's opposition to parts of the Green Deal. Many changes made by PiS to Poland’s legal system remain in place. But the European Commission assessed the measures taken so far by Donald Tusk’s government and agreed to unblock money from the Recovery and Resilience Fund. Much of the money will go to energy transition, like subsidies for heater replacements and insulation, as well as offshore wind farms. This is expected to boost Poland's energy transition.
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Heating in peril – 16 million Poles are keeping their homes warm in winter with district heating, the largest number of district heating customers among all EU countries. A vast majority of district heating systems use coal and are considered inefficient. Experts say the sector is “underinvested, outdated and unprofitable,” with customers bearing the brunt of rising cost.
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Costly heat pumps – In 2022 heat pump installations increased, as many saw them as a solution to rising prices of coal and heating in general. However, in 2023 some are starting to regret their decision with energy costs rising. The Polish government agreed to freeze electricity prices, but only up to a certain level of energy consumption. That meant a steep rise in electricity bills for homeowners using heat pumps that consumed power in excess of the subsidy limit. Sales of heat pumps fell in the first half of 2023. But in 2024 prices for electricity (used over the subsidy limit) are to decrease.
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Clean(er) air. Poland’s struggle with high air pollution has for years focused on heating, but now it is also starting to deal with cars. From June 2024, Warsaw will have the first Clean Transport Zone (Strefa czystego transportu - SCT) in the country. It will gradually ban older cars (especially diesel-powered ones) from the city centre. There will be, however, numerus exemptions. For example, the ban will not apply to the city’s residents until 2028. Cracow, infamous in Poland for its smog levels, was the first to agree on a Clean Transport Zone, but the city bill was overturned by a court on formal grounds and the city will now work on a new bill, probably after April's local elections.
Sector overview
Energy
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Responsible for 47.8 percent of total GHG emissions in 2021
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In 2023, coal was the main source of electricity (61 percent). It remained the largest proportion by far in the EU, despite the significant drop from 70 percent in 2022. Wind and solar rose from almost 16 percent to 21 percent and renewables in total reached 27 percent. The lignite plant PGE Bełchatów is the EU's highest emitting power plant, but now it has a plan to close down gradually until 2036 (with a 77% reduction until 2030).
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Poland plans a gradual phase-out of coal, replacing it with a mix of renewables and nuclear generation. New fossil gas plants are also to be built, but some plans have been revised after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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In 2021, Poland adopted theEnergy policy of Poland until 2040 (PEP2040) programme with the following main targets: 32 percent of renewables in electricity generation and no more than 56 percent of power from coal by 2030, and the first nuclear power plant starting operation in 2033. The plan has been criticized by NGOs and parliamentary opposition as “unrealistic.” Donald Tusk’s government, ruling since December 2023, is working on an update to the document, expected to be presented in the second half of 2024.
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In a draft for an update of Poland’s National energy and climate plan, presented to the European Commission, the climate ministry shows a “business as usual” scenario for the energy transition until 2030. In electricity production, it projects 50% of renewable generation by 2030 (compared to 27% in 2023), with a steady rise in solar PV and onshore wind, and first offshore wind farms in the Baltic coming online from 2028. A second, more ambitious scenario will be presented in the second quarter of 2024.
Industry
- Responsible for 14 percent of total GHG emissions in 2021.
- It covers about 5 percent of Poland’s GDP and 400 thousand jobs.
- Energy intensity of industry (per GDP unit) is above the EU average, but companies are increasingly looking to improve efficiency and use zero-carbon energy, both in form of renewables and small nuclear reactors.
- CO2-intensive industries in Poland are comprised of both private domestic and international companies (like ArcelorMittal) and partially state-owned companies (like Orlen and Grupa Azoty).
- In 2022, energy-intensive industries struggled with big increases in electricity and gas prices. The high carbon intensity of the power sector is not only driving up prices, but also increasingly threatening their business as more and more clients are looking not just at price, but also at the carbon footprint.
Buildings
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Responsible for 11 percent of total GHG emissions.
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Solid fuels (coal, wood) and district heating (mainly coal plants) dominate in the heating sector, but gas boiler use has increased in recent years and can now be found in a quarter of all buildings (according to incomplete government data).
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The energy crisis has led to a boom in heat-pump sales, but they remain a small percentage of all installed heating systems.
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Until recently, Polesaccounted for as much as 87 percent of the total amount of coal burned by EU households, and almosttwo-thirds of buildings in Poland are characterized by lowenergy efficiency. In 2022 the governmentsuspended quality requirements for coal sold to households due to the energy crisis, and later extended that until the end of 2023.
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The current government targets are: coal phase-out in city households by 2030 and outside cities by 2040, with all heating covered by “low emission sources” or district heating by 2040 (experts point out that this could be achieved much sooner). The building renovation strategy sets a target of renovating and insulating 236 thousand buildings per year between 2020-2030, with numbers increasing in the next decades.
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Polish cities have some of the worst air quality levels in Europe with buildings being (mainly solid fuels furnaces) the biggest contributor to fine particulate pollution.
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Almost 16 billion PLN (3.6 billion euro) contracted for household heat source replacement in the “Clean Air” governmental programme; but until 2022 it was possible to get a subsidy for a more efficient coal furnace.
Mobility
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Domestic transport is responsible for 17.8 percent of total GHG emissions and is the only sector that had its emissions increase between 1990 and 2021.
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In 2019 the government adopted theSustainable Transport Development Strategy until 2030. It assumes an 8 percent rise in CO2 emissions from transport by 2030 (compared to 2017) and has no specific target for the number of EVs. In a draft update to Poland’s National energy and climate plan, Donald Tusk’s government concludes that it will be “impossible” for Poland to meet the EU’s target of 29% of renewable share in the transport sector - it projects a 17,7% share by 2030.
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The PiS government, in its official plans, was aiming for zero-emissions public transport in the biggest cities by 2030, as stated in Energy policy of Poland (EPP2040). In 2016, then-prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced that there will be one million electric cars in Poland by 2025, but so far there are fewer than 50 thousand EVs on Polish roads. The new coalition agreement contains a point on improving public transportation system, but nothing on EVs.
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Transport is the area of the transition which the United Right government was most squarely behind, at least rhetorically, promoting electromobility and even initiating a state-led project of Polish EV brand “Izera.” Now the project’s future is in question as the new coalition will be reviewing controversial initiatives from PiS era and “Izera,” which the then-opposition politicians have been criticising for a long time.
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Poland is the EU’s leader in road freight, but the industry could be left out from the European market without a transition to zero emission trucks.
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Poland is Europe's biggest producer of lithium-ion batteries, and second-largest in the world (after China).
Agriculture
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Responsible for 8.9 percent of total GHG emissions in 2021, mostly in the form of nitrous oxide and methane (caused in around equal 40 percent parts by soil related emissions and direct livestock emissions).
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There is no governmental CO2 reduction target; the government only points to EU-wide targets for 2030 and 2050.
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The government sees biogas as an important project in developing circular economy in rural areas and providing low carbon energy.
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The effects of climate change, especially drought, are already impacting polish agriculture.
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Like in much of Europe, big farmer protests took place in Poland in the first months of 2024. The biggest issue was food imports from Ukraine, but opposition to elements of the EU Green Deal were also among the reasons for the protest. Agriculture minister Czesław Siekierski (PSL/Third way) also called some elements of the EU’s climate policy “irrational”, and the government supported loosening some requirements by the EU.
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF)
- Forests and other areas remain a carbon sink and removed 21 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2021. Around 30% of Poland is covered by forest (a number similar to countries like France or Germany) and around 80 percent of them is state owned and managed by a special public company, State Forests National Forest Holding. In 2022 State Forest had a record income of 13.5 billion PLN from selling wood. In recent years, the company has come under criticism from NGOs and private citizens for a number of issues, from lack of transparency to logging in old-growth forests.
- The level of CO2 removal by forests has been decreasing over the last decade, with a sharp fall in recent years (from over 40 million tons to just over 20 million tons). According to Poland's emissions report, the main reasons are due to the long-term effects of disasters like permanent drought and storms with strong wind causing trees to fall. Timber harvesting is also on the rise.
- The United Right government has been pointing to forest sequestration as a climate solution, including during COP24 in Poland; but sequestration levels have been falling and in 2021 it amounted to only 52 percent of Poland’s target for 2030. A solution proposed by the State Forestry organisation to counter this problem has had a marginal effect.
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The United Right government and the State Forests have criticised the EU Nature Restoration Law and other EU projects aimed at improving forest protection. The new government replaced State Forest director and United Right politician Józef Kubica. The new leadership promises to pay more attention to environmental issues and social demands in regard to forests. In one of the first decisions of the new climate and environment ministry, logging was temporarily halted or reduced in 1.3 percent of forests with environmental and social significance.
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